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12-06-2018, 10:04   #61
squarecircles
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azores high continues to intensify on the gfs run,building entirely over the country towards the end
of the run,then slipping to scandinavia allowing a nice toasty east wind to blow in.














Last edited by squarecircles; 12-06-2018 at 10:16.
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13-06-2018, 13:35   #62
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The trend continues on gfs runs for fine summer weather developing over ireland through the last week of june.





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14-06-2018, 23:21   #63
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A mixed bag next week I would imagine and rather unsettled . Breezy /windy at times with alternating ridges and LP's so alternating temperatures also. Lp's will bring rain and most of the weather with a SW'ly aspect. The jet keeping the Atlantic mobile out to +240 . Next Weds looks warm but a lot of days will have a wide variation in temperatures from cool on windward coastal counties to milder in Eastern areas.














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15-06-2018, 20:50   #64
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I spy with my little eye, something beginning with h on tonight's ECM 12z at +240 hrs.

Personally, I'm very skeptical of this. My reasons being the fact that the ECM has had a poor record recently in consistency, the model wants to form northern blocking over Greenland and not to mention how fast the pattern goes from anticyclonic to a southeasterly in the space of 24 hours.

There has been a trend this morning and yesterday for this period where the ECM now is showing a warm spell or perhaps even heatwave, for it to be a northerly and bringing down cooler air after a warm interval on Friday 22nd/Saturday 23rd. Look how much change has taken place now on this model.

I have been hinting at a hot end to June for a couple of weeks now but until I see it as a trend on the models, I will hold my skepticism. Until then, some very warm weather to take place on Tuesday next week and then Thursday/Friday again. The latter being similar to the heatwave or warm spell of mid-June 2017.

Don't expect much rain in the south and east for the next week, it will continue to remain very dry but more unsettled in the north and west.









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16-06-2018, 09:26   #65
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This mornings GFS is throwing up renewed heat however there seems to be disturbances in the North and West at first
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16-06-2018, 09:30   #66
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Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
This mornings GFS is throwing up renewed heat however there seems to be disturbances in the North and West at first
Definitely showing sustained heat from 6 days out. Little bit closer to the reliable range so hopefully!
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16-06-2018, 10:39   #67
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ECM not too bad either.
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16-06-2018, 18:27   #68
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For Ireland, the UKMO 12z is a great run if you like settled and not overly warm weather (in fact quite cool). The reason why the run is quite cool is courtesy of a cold front that pushes southwards on Wednesday after a rather warm day on Tuesday (temperatures up to 22 or 23c in the east and southeast). If the high sticks around for a couple of days afterwards then it will warm up quickly especially in the strong sunshine. This looks cloudy for the UK but (especially out west) it seems to me that close to this high pressure, Ireland would be in for some sunny conditions. Temperatures on Thursday/Friday would likely be in the mid teens if there's a lot of cloud but high teens if the sun is there.

GFS 12z shows very similar to the UKMO with a few dry days for Ireland from Thursday 21st to Sunday 24th. The Atlantic tries to invade into the west then on the Monday but gets pushed away back northwards from another ridge being sent up from the Azores with this time, warmer conditions.

Not much northern blocking if any on these runs so these runs are an upgrade in that case.

The anomalous cooling that has been taking place near Iberia only promotes ridging from the Azores and or high pressure somewhere around our shores.









This chart from the GFS 06z is just for fun at +384 hrs but I'm posting it here to show you what this Summer is capable of if everything goes right in the atmosphere.

If you cannot read the chart, it's showing an Omega blocking pattern sending the jet stream way to the north and high pressure fest all over us.

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16-06-2018, 21:11   #69
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The GFS 12z ensembles agree very much with the OP run with a settled end to next week across the whole country but cool. The high is just a bit further westwards though on the ensemble mean which would probably bring more cloud especially to eastern regions of the country.



GFS ensembles for both Dublin and Cork are very dry (especially Cork) and relatively warm. If the GFS ensembles for Cork are correct, I think we would have to start talking about an absolute drought (minimum 15 consecutive days with 0.1mm of rain or less) down there

Dublin:



Cork:



Always that more unsettled in the northwest (bar the end of next week) but even here, nothing alarmingly wet and relatively warm again.



ECM 12z follows similar suit to both the GFS and UKMO. Have we finally got some agreement?

After this settled end to the week, the model goes into a changeable pattern with transient ridges from the Azores than sustained.



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17-06-2018, 00:00   #70
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Three words for the Pub Run tonight, high pressure fest. It even ends the run off (in squarecircles' words) with a toasty easterly.
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17-06-2018, 13:09   #71
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Positive sign for an increase in temperatures seeing heights improving from next weekend and signs of good temperatures into the following week for however long it will last.

The charts look similar to a couple of weeks ago with an area of LP taking up position off Portugal, will be interesting to see if that holds.





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17-06-2018, 17:41   #72
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Could I suggest that we make a combined technical discussion thread for the reliable timeframe + FI, or a second thread for the reliable timeframe? The analysis being provided in this thread by Ryan and others is spectacular, it's a shame that as per forum rules it has to cut off at T120+ - and it seems like there's no corresponding thread for this kind of discussion for nearer timeframes, with the discussion threads being used more for general "here's what it's like where I am at the moment" type chat.

Just a thought!
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17-06-2018, 18:59   #73
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GFS 12z is very settled again and increasingly warm after the cooler blip courtesy of a cold front later this week. Well out into FI, it becomes much more unsettled but the previous few runs of the GFS before this all showed high pressure continuing throughout so don't take that seriously at this stage.

UKMO 12z is quite different to any of the model runs since yesterday afternoon. It shows the high pressure over us for Thursday/Friday but then slips to the south on Saturday at +144 hrs allowing more of an Atlantic influence to the weather with the jet stream very close to the north. The upper air temperature distribution suggests a northerly flow than a westerly but the 500mb heights show a westerly so I'm kind of puzzled on this one. Guess the full agreement didn't last long!

The GFS 12z ensembles are in agreement with the OP run again in settled conditions for the end of the week into the following week. No heatwave or very warm spell being signalled but a lot of dry weather.

ECM is currently rolling so we shall see what it has to say.









The longer range models are still on odds with one another in terms of how July is going to pan out. The ECM and CFSv2 both show a very dry, anticyclonic month but with average to perhaps even slightly cooler than average temperatures. However, I will show you here what the CFSv2 temperature anomalies were showing this time 5 years ago for July 2013. It was showing an average to cool month just like it is now for July 2018.



I continue to hold skepticism of both the longer range models and the shorter range models. I seriously do think they're undercooking or underestimating the temperatures for July 2018 - if only we could see what they would be showing this time in 1976 and 1995. I will await for further trends on the shorter range model output.

Now this is where it starts to get somewhat complicated but stick with me, I am trying to make it as easy to understand as possible. How we've gotten away with such a blocked pattern since February is down to how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has behaved after the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. You can see how the AMOC has fared (in general) since February in the chart below with the arrows labelled showing the direction.

The winds in the Atlantic have tended to come from the north whilst the anticyclonic block over Scandinavia caused the winds to come from an easterly for us. The way the winds aligned in the Atlantic brought cold air down from the Arctic into the North Atlantic from Greenland down to the eastern side of the North Atlantic and through the tropics. The air is then moderated a lot as it's brought into the middle part of the North Atlantic where it's been warmer than average. When you have an SST profile or AMOC like this, it's a sign of a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which usually promotes blocking to the east. It just happens though that now this cold pool in the Atlantic is weakening somewhat allowing the warmer SSTs to filter through the cold. When you have this kind of contrast with the warm air battling with the cold air, it tends to blow up the Polar Jet or is commonly known as the jet stream. When you get an intensified jet in Summer, it can be of two things. It can be a sign of great anticyclonic Summer weather that isn't very humid with a blocked ridge from the Azores carrying all the low pressures up to the north of Europe. It can also be a sign of a very wet and cool signal if the Azores High is weak. This is why I have concerns and hold skepticism though this will become far more of a player in the Winter than Summer. With the anomalous cooling still over the Azores and to the west of Iberia, I am more favourable of the Azores High ridging to us in a way like July 2013 did than another easterly spell. July 2013 had a very deep cold pool just to the west of Iberia which is worth nothing this time around. But never say never with our weather.

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17-06-2018, 19:53   #74
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Bank the ECM 12z, high pressure firmly in control and getting very warm by +168 hrs. The jet stream has gone a bit mental on this run. I'm impressed.

So the UKMO 12z is all alone on its own..... for now.







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17-06-2018, 20:19   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
Could I suggest that we make a combined technical discussion thread for the reliable timeframe + FI, or a second thread for the reliable timeframe? The analysis being provided in this thread by Ryan and others is spectacular, it's a shame that as per forum rules it has to cut off at T120+ - and it seems like there's no corresponding thread for this kind of discussion for nearer timeframes, with the discussion threads being used more for general "here's what it's like where I am at the moment" type chat.

Just a thought!

Sounds like a good idea . I will discuss with the other Moderators and get back to ye.
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