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05-06-2018, 23:42   #31
sryanbruen
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Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here
Here's one tweet from Michael Ventrice of The Weather Company that suggests so.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...14745874247687

I think everything is still on course to what I am expecting.

On another note, CFSv2 is continuing to show a very strong July for warmth and dry weather with a huge emphasis on Ireland in particular. Its 700mb height anomaly is strikingly similar to that of July 1955's 500mb height anomaly which if you are not aware holds Ireland's highest monthly sunshine total on record of 308.2 hours at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/statu...79867846152199

ECM 12z wants to delay the Atlantic interlude to later next week than mid-week as shown by the GFS or early next week by the UKMO. Still seems we're trying to achieve an exact time on the change of pattern or blip but we're getting there!
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06-06-2018, 03:05   #32
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Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here
Apologies, the forecast I mistook for the official NHC one was in fact the CSU forecast (Colorado State University) which is probably tied with TSR as the next-best long-term forecast after NOAA itself.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media...05/2018-06.pdf

This was published on May 31, nearly two months after the previous April 5 report which called for an above-average season:

Quote:
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have approximately average activity. While we still do not anticipate a significant El Niño during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, most of the North Atlantic has continued to anomalously cool over the past two months. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal at present. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
I can't find the report which tied the negative AMO / low Atlantic SSTs to the strong +NAO, should've bookmarked it, but it was a similarly credible one. Might possibly have been TSR, I'll have a look tomorrow and see if I can find it in my history. The correlation between a strong Azores high and unfavourable wind shear for hurricanes was made in the same document IIRC, and it was only published in the last couple of weeks.
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07-06-2018, 11:54   #33
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So normal service is on next week with the jet stream arriving back from its holidays and if some of the runs are correct especially the latest GFS 0z, we could be in for some very wet days from Wednesday evening onwards. Here's examples of bands of rain that the GFS 0z showed:

Wednesday 13th afternoon/evening



Thursday 14th morning





Friday 15th evening





Monday 18th afternoon





Rainfall totals in some areas going by the above could be totalling more than 50mm in these few days which will be the wettest period anywhere has seen since early April. So the GFS leaves a lot to be desired.

The ECM continues to delay the Atlantic somewhat to Thursday/Friday than Wednesday but nevertheless, we do go into a westerly regime. The ECM at +240 hours does show the Azores attempting to throw up a ridge to the south just abouts.

In terms of the temperatures, both models show generally average temperatures though by the third week of June (which is well into FI), the GFS shows negative upper air temperatures (temperatures below 0c). However, now that the GFS is back to its normal self i.e. it chops and changes very quickly, don't really expect this to hang on for long - just look at what the 12z showed the other day in FI above for example.

The potential of another warm spell for the end of June continues, no changes on that though the GFS 0z run is not that promising (unless you're really in need of rain).




Last edited by sryanbruen; 07-06-2018 at 11:59.
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07-06-2018, 21:56   #34
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Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

Still what a spell.

Dont be too evil weather Gods.

remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.
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07-06-2018, 22:11   #35
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Yes the charts are showing an end to it all by mid June.

Still what a spell.

Dont be too evil weather Gods.

remember we had 10 months of rain and no grass growth before this coz of cold.
Sshhhhh they don't know that.

Outlook is still much the same with the 12z models. Perhaps Tuesday will bring in a very brief ridge from the Azores. The GFS 12z OP is a very cool run - see in the ensembles here - thankfully for the moment, it's an outlier and temperatures are on the up again here in the ensembles following this Atlantic onslaught or interlude.

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08-06-2018, 13:37   #36
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Oh man Friday 15th Boo the breakdown. Following with interest.
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08-06-2018, 15:31   #37
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The return of the westerlies has been downgraded today with no precipitation spikes appearing at all (for Dublin at least) until next Friday. These precipitation spikes that do appear then are very small and not really a lot of wet weather being shown on the ensemble. Warm weather seems to have extended 'til then too as you can see from the ensemble. Previously it looked like going until the 11th (next Monday) so that's quite an upgrade. It also appears that there is like one single day on the ensemble with average 850hPa temperatures and all the rest relatively warmer than average.

All in all, quite a downgrade of the westerlies but quite an upgrade for warm and dry weather. We shall see if this is a new theme now or if the models are still trying to get a grip of the exact pattern that is going to take place.

This in some ways reminds me of June 2013 quite a bit. June 2013 started off with a warm and dry spell then the second week was very wet and cool whilst the second half was largely changeable.

The jet stream is very close to the west on both the GFS and ECM runs but the Azores keeps throwing up ridges into the south and east of the country shoving the jet stream northwestwards. +240 hrs on the ECM 0z really showed the Azores ridge taking over the pattern.


Last edited by sryanbruen; 08-06-2018 at 15:50.
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08-06-2018, 16:10   #38
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saw that too

i still think therel be a cool down next week but hopefully not a severe breakdown

a few days of 17 or 18c and a small dropeen of rain and then back into the 20s to end the month
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08-06-2018, 16:11   #39
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Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm
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08-06-2018, 23:09   #40
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Hopefully we only get a small drop of rain in Cork too, has the model for that changed? Can't check myself on mobile atm
You have similar ensembles to Dublin above.

Meanwhile, second consecutive run of the ECM showing the Azores fighting against the Atlantic near the end of its run with the heat building especially to the south of both the UK and Ireland. With that high pressure to the east and south, the low pressures out to the west just cannot push through.

Only sharing this for fun for now.





Increasingly looking like a blip rather than a complete pattern change. Uncertainty remains though.

The P11 from the GFS 06z ensembles was in particular stunning.

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08-06-2018, 23:50   #41
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ECM showing possible windy spells on the Atlantic side of the country coming up to and next weekend as LP systems track up towards Iceland, staying well offshore for now but you would imagine some bands of rain. Temperatures fluctuating as warm air is dragged up in SW'lys with probable cold /warm front ( warm sector ) set ups. Charts just for guidance as no doubt will change over the coming days.









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09-06-2018, 00:04   #42
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ECM atm showing the jet all over us from the second half of the week getting the Atlantic mobile again and possibly keeping things unsettled for a bit. No sign of HP over us but ECM showing ridging up from the Azores at the end of the run as sryanbruen mentioned. A lot could happen between now and then though.







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09-06-2018, 00:13   #43
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Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless
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09-06-2018, 00:17   #44
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Unreal GFS 18z. Still too far out in lala land but positive nonetheless
I think I wold be like JCX BXC and investing in a fan or mini air conditioning unit if that happens !

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09-06-2018, 00:50   #45
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Had a walk outside there and it feels chilly
Why anyone would want that moving into July is beyond me!!!!!
Bring on more heat
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