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03-06-2018, 15:11   #16
Meteorite58
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GFS showing a return to more average type Irish summer weather / temperatures ( if somewhat cooler further out ) and wanting to introduce LP from the W. Showing a return of the Jet from the W also. ECM still hanging on to warmer then average temperatures out to +240










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03-06-2018, 15:49   #17
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Yes the GFS has now come in line with what the ECM was showing briefly yesterday although not nearly as bad. Saying that judging by the 06z ensembles, it looks very temporary and way out into FI, there's growing confidence of the developments of another warm and dry spell noted by the slowly rising 850hPa temperatures here and the precipitation spikes going back down.

The westerly phase also from a Dublin point of view here doesn't look terrible in terms of rainfall either. Just average temperatures and light rain.



Cork is very similar.

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03-06-2018, 18:46   #18
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And the 12z brings the high pressure back over Ireland for next weekend in comparison to the other runs. Just yesterday the models were showing an easterly yet again for next weekend but now it's more of a southwesterly or variable wind direction with high pressure ridging from the Azores. This would mean warmer temperatures for the east of the country than recently.

Jet stream is closer to us on the UKMO than the GFS and if we could go on a day or so more with the model, I'd think we would find ourselves in the westerly flow taking over.

We shall see what the ECM 12z has to say very shortly.

It's clear that we're going to have a breakdown of the pattern for a brief period of time (at least for the past few days) but what is not clear is when exactly this is going to take off. Need trends








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03-06-2018, 20:22   #19
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Ok so, ECM 12z is kind of a flat westerly run. Nothing overly wet, nothing overly cool either. Nothing really to comment on here.

I'm hoping we have a somewhat more clearer picture this time tomorrow.

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04-06-2018, 11:20   #20
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GFS 0z keeps the high pressure over us until around Monday or Tuesday next week then the westerlies take over with quite a deep area of low pressure for the time of year pushing towards us by Wednesday/Thursday then. This is not the first time the GFS has picked up on this, yesterday's 0z run also did it. This 0z run has it relatively less deeper.

ECM 0z is just a flat westerly like yesterday's 12z from the model. Note the strength of the Azores High though on the ECM run.








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04-06-2018, 14:56   #21
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If the GFS 06z was right, we'd be in for a deluge.



GFS 06z ensembles for Dublin show further warm weather out to next Monday which is when the temperatures gradually start to cool down then. There is some localised thundery shower potential for Friday again.

You can see the OP run above from the 06z on this ensemble as an outlier on the precipitation lines - I have highlighted it. It is not well supported to be that bad.

Temperatures (at least at 850hPa) don't go cooler than average really any time just staying relatively mild to average. No doubt though that if the GFS 06z OP were to come off with its deluge, it would be very cool regardless of the upper air temperatures as the temperatures drop in the heavy rain.

Think we're starting to see a trend on some low pressure or depression coming across the Atlantic to Ireland for around Thursday 14th June. Got to remember, that's 10 days away so not worth delving into too much especially with all this uncertainty currently.

Yesterday on the ensembles, it looked like we could go into another warm spell at the end of June. This morning's ones don't really show this but at the end of the OP run, there is signs of the Azores High ridging up to us. Other outlooks such as the UKMO or the CFSv2 for the end of June do agree on a potential warm spell at the end of June and start of July.

For the next few days, expect it to continue warm and dry.

Will report on the 12z runs again this evening.

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04-06-2018, 15:32   #22
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That GFS 6Z is ridiculous! It's not only us that are stuck with the rain but it's pretty much most of Europe! (not that I believe it, it's just strange to look at)
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04-06-2018, 16:38   #23
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I seriously hope that doesn't happen. I have an entire outdoor birthday party planned c'mon gfs

Looks Fishy to have that much rain in that large of an area.
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04-06-2018, 18:31   #24
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The GFS 12z is very different again! Basically ridging after ridging bar one blip of the jet stream southwards from Sunday to Tuesday next week. Doesn't make my life any easier. Ay ay ay. Literally zero sign of the deluge that the 06z showed. Not a huge surprise because the 06z is as reliable as the 18z aka the Pub Run and added onto that, it was +272 hrs out!

I've just been getting very used to the consistency of the model these past few months.

ECM 12z is going to be soon but I guess we haven't gotten anywhere further than where we were last night.

As I said in my earlier post, keep an eye on the strength of the Azores High on these runs. It will play a major role in where we will go for this Summer. The best summers have very strong Azores Highs/Scandi Highs and I still believe this Summer has potential to be a classic as a result.

A possible reason for this inconsistency could be because of the fact that this Summer maybe highly unusual and the models are trying to get grips of it much like the Beast From the East earlier this year.






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04-06-2018, 22:31   #25
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its bliss.









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05-06-2018, 11:09   #26
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GFS and ECM now on their 0z runs both show the depression for around the 14th June to produce quite a bit of rain. Mind you, not as much as the GFS 06z suggested yesterday. Upper air temperatures quite average but going by the wind direction and the rain, I think daytime temperatures would be mid-teens at best.

Although, the evolution the models show here (especially the GFS) for the jet stream maybe a bit too quick to go down that track. We shall see.








Last edited by sryanbruen; 05-06-2018 at 11:19.
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05-06-2018, 11:31   #27
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Looks like similar type weather as we are getting currently from here to early next week, possibly W'lys / NW'lys after that with the introduction of a Longwave Trough being shown to amplify over us which would possibly introduce more unsettled and bit cooler weather.











Strong jet nearby, negative tilt with cold uppers ,could get sparky at the end of next week. Long way off, subject to change.
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05-06-2018, 18:33   #28
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GFS 12z is just your average westerly pattern with one deep depression for Friday 15th and that's it.

Still looking like this could be quite short of an unsettled pattern though as the Azores attempts to throw up a ridge and turn the winds back into the south to southeast by the third to fourth week of June.



Sure GFS .


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05-06-2018, 20:08   #29
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On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.
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05-06-2018, 22:09   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatrickpatrick View Post
On the NAO and Azores High, it should be noted that the combined strength of these is having a massive impact on the tropics and has led the various forecasting agencies including the NHC themselves to significantly downgrade their expectations for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The specific reasons seem to be, firstly, that the strong NAO is keeping the air circulation moving so quickly that it's preventing the tropical ocean from warming up as it's supposed to at this time of year, and secondly that the strong Azores High / subtropical ridge causes tropical waves to move too quickly over the tropics, not giving them enough time to develop before wind shear tears them apart.

The fact that the agencies monitoring the US hurricane season seem to be predicting these conditions to persist throughout much of the summer adds weight to Syranbruen's inkling that this will be an unusual summer. They don't issue downgrades in hurricane forecasting lightly as this has a knock-on effect in causing complacency around the hurricane danger zones' populations, so if they're formally predicting a strong Azores High and +NAO for the summer, I'd regard that as at least fairly credible.
Would you have a link to where they've posted downgrades? Most recent press release on their main page is a forecast (presumably already outdated) of above normal from 24th May: here

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