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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 2 July, 09 _ 0445h
    ______________________________

    Just preparing the forecast but as to current situation, one line of heavy thunderstorms has recently moved north through Dublin and districts about as far west as Athlone, and this is gradually weakening, but another strong line of storms appears to be developing over Wicklow and Carlow, moving generally north towards Dublin, and could be as severe when it arrives around 0630-0730. Will give a more comprehensive forecast about 0520, looks like potential for serious urban flooding today with more activity possible even further into the day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac


    Thanks M.T. Hope you had a good Canada Day! Belting down here atm


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 2 July, 2009
    ________________________

    TODAY will continue very unsettled in the eastern two-thirds of Ireland, although some west coast districts could break into sunshine for a while. There will be several more waves of heavy thundery showers or even torrential rain especially around Wicklow and Dublin, and some distance west into central Ireland. Rainfall amounts of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) will create some urban and stream flooding. Between showers, it may brighten for a while and warm up to 22-24 C but in the heavy rain it will be about 19 C. I'm sure it will feel like a sauna with the high humidity. Watch for updates as we attempt to track the incoming heavier cells (there is quite a conveyor belt of them from Biscay across Cornwall and southwest Wales into eastern Ireland).

    Some southern and western districts may see a bit more sunshine and less rain although few places will be absolutely dry today.

    TONIGHT there could be more heavy thundery showers with lows near 18 C in the east, 14 C in the west and north.

    FRIDAY, another separate system of heavy showers and thunderstorms will approach from the southwest during the morning and move across Ireland slowly during the day, leading to more heavy and possibly flooding rainfalls of 25-50 mms (1-2 inches) locally. Highs will be about 21-22 C but with high humidity it will feel like about 25-27 C.

    FRIDAY NIGHT will continue stormy with stronger winds developing from the south then southwest (20-35 mph) and possibly some hail at times in the sporadic thundery showers.

    SATURDAY will become a bit brighter and fresher with continued widespread thundery showers, some with hail. Winds will be southwest at about 25-40 mph and some strong gusts are possible in some showers. Morning lows will be around 13 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few more showers mainly across the north and central districts, lows of 8-11 C and highs near 17 C.

    NEXT WEEK looks a lot less humid than this week has been, with some rather cool temperatures at times, and passing showers but also longer dry spells.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Thanks MT - your a star on this forum:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 37 Wella


    Thanks for the forecast MT!!:D Hop you enjoyed the holiday yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    wish i read this yesterday flooded this morning car fecked too :mad::mad::mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 903 ✭✭✭bernardo mac


    TA MT,am nipping into town with canoe on board!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,672 ✭✭✭s_carnage


    Wednesday, 1 July, 2009
    ___________________________

    NEXT WEEK seems likely to remain much cooler and less humid than this week.

    Any idea on whether if could be dry or not for next weekend for Oxegen? Don't fancy camping in mud!!!

    BTW great work on the thread!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,975 ✭✭✭nkay1985


    I've only just found this thread in the last few days and it's brilliant!

    The Spraoi festival is on in Waterford City this weekend (tonight until Sunday evening). How do you think it will look for most of this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    In general for anything outdoors Friday to Sunday, be prepared for further bouts of heavy rainfall at times, it won't likely be raining non-stop any of the three days, and there will be a tendency towards drying out and longer intervals of sunshine through the weekend, I think. It will also be feeling quite a bit fresher and cooler by Saturday. This applies to most of the country but the southwest may not be as showery on the weekend.

    By the way, I continue to thank you for kind comments, but please be aware that from time to time I look at other threads started by weather forum members and try to factor in what they are saying too, so I feel like this is and should be a group project -- as we move forward, I will try to get more input on a more regular basis too, and I think this will improve the results.

    Anyone reading this who is a regular weather contributor, feel free to post ideas in this thread too, or PM me any time you have concerns about upcoming events, including where you see the need for any changes from the run of forecasts let's say 4, 3 and 2 days out. I tend to look at various models and try to fit actual weather events to the consensus of guidance, so I'm not sort of stuck on one model run.

    And if you're sort of new to the weather forum and an interest in weather beyond the usual day to day stuff, then I would recommend that you delve into the other active threads here and help expand (for one thing) the daily reports section which is already a good source of updated info. One thing, people posting in this forum, it really helps if you mention either in your avatar or in the post itself, where you live (or where you are reporting from) because while some may know, many may not, and "it's thundering like crazy here" is of limited value if nobody knows where "here" is. Just to sicken you all, I have sunshine, low humidity, and 22 C at 0940 local time, on the way to 27 C. Seems like the Pacific is taking a break while the Atlantic knocks itself out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 9 pm
    _____________________

    Overnight, heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue in parts of Mayo, Galway and possibly a little further east and south at times. These will eventually move over parts of Donegal and far northern NI. Otherwise, the country will remain fairly dry, although misty and humid, with the exception of a few showers in the southeast that we will monitor just in case ... currently not expecting these to repeat last night's onslaught, but there could be a rumble or two and 3-5 mms of rain from them. Will certainly update if this changes.

    As to Friday, things are on track for development of a fairly intense cluster of showers and thunderstorms that you can see quite clearly on the satellite imagery out around 17 W at present, moving steadily towards Kerry and likely to make landfall around 0500 in the southwest, then spread gradually to other parts of south-central Ireland through the morning hours. There may be additional shower activity forming further east ahead of this by then, but the main band of heavy rain and possibly intense thunderstorm development should be crossing Ireland during the day and could reach Dublin by about the afternoon rush hour. Stay tuned, it's going to be a pretty active couple of days, as the atmosphere remains quite unstable on Saturday with the likelihood of further locally heavy showers and storms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 3 July, 2009
    _______________________

    TODAY will feature another round of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms moving across the southern and later eastern parts of the country. This rain has already arrived in Kerry and will be spreading gradually to the northeast, with an increasing risk of thundery outbreaks. Conditions ahead of this complex are mostly cloudy and a few showers could develop before the main event arrives, but there could also be brief sunny intervals allowing highs to reach 22-23 C in places. It will still be quite warm and humid today, although there has been a slight change of air mass overnight.

    Winds will be picking up from the south especially around Cork and later Waterford, to 20-30 mph. The northwest may also have some brief sunny intervals before some showers arrive by mid-day. Expect the heavier activity to reach the Midlands by about 1100 to noon, and Dublin around 3-4 pm, with potential for 20-30 mms of rain locally. Watch for updates as we attempt to track this system.

    TONIGHT will continue unsettled with further showers and possible thundershowers, but also some clear intervals, and strong SSW breezes at 15-30 mph. Lows will be in the range of 9 to 12 C.

    You'll notice the moon is nearing full phase (the bright star near the moon tonight is Antares -- the Moon moves in front of it by about sunrise).

    SATURDAY will be quite changeable and blustery at times with strong SW breezes, 30-40 mph over the open sea, and 20-35 mph on land in coastal areas, more like 15-25 mph in the inland counties. There may be a few brief sunny intervals, but also some sharp and at times thundery showers with the risk of small hail. Highs will be about 18 C.

    SUNDAY is likely to be rather similar although perhaps a degree or two cooler again, with a mix of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, and possibly some longer periods of rain in the counties north of Dublin. Winds will be veering slowly to WSW 20-35 mph across the south, and may fall off quite light in the north as a trough moves across from west to east, then late in the day will become more northwesterly.

    MONDAY will continue breezy and considerably cooler than this past week, with lows of 7-9 C and highs of 15-17 C, passing showers or periods of light rain, and some sunny intervals.

    THE REST OF THE WEEK will see gradual improvement, especially later in the week when a weak ridge will return sunshine and somewhat warmer temperatures near 20 C in the daytime. Nights will remain pleasantly cool if you've been finding this past week too warm.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26 obrienmichael


    We have just had a thunderstorm here in North Tipperary. Still very dark at the moment with the odd flash of lighting and rumble of thunder. It is not as humid as the past couple of days. I hope these thunderstorms continue over the weekend. Thanks M.T for your updates i do enjoy reading them. :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Thunderstorm just passing north of Moate, typical summer thunderstorm, heavy rain,strong winds ahead of the shower,now fallen calm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ 5:30 pm Friday
    ____________________

    It now appears that Dublin escaped the rather limited wrath of the first wave of showers and thundershowers, these have moved further northeast and are now rather weak around Louth. More active showers that look like they could have a small amount of hail with them, are moving inland from coastal Clare and Galway, and may reach north-central parts of Ireland this evening, then into Northern Ireland. If these begin to expand more of a line to the south as they travel northeast, the tail end of the showers may possibly reach Dublin around late evening, say 10 pm to midnight. It should be a relatively fine evening until then, if not all the way through to Saturday morning. However, there are some showers developing over the hills southwest of Dublin and these could give a few raindrops or even a brief sharper downpour in Dublin around 7 pm, not everyone in the Dublin region will see these as they are quite limited in area.

    Another wave of showers can be seen approaching southwest Ireland for later this evening and will probably bring a fairly widespread rainfall of 5-10 mms late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are beginning to increase from the south along the west coast now, in advance of a trough of low pressure located near 15 W.

    More updates as required.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 373 ✭✭devereaux17


    great day south dublin if a little cloudy,


  • Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭glossy


    :( that's a pity, was soo looking forward to the thunderstorm


  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭mike2084


    Another wave of showers can be seen approaching southwest Ireland for later this evening and will probably bring a fairly widespread rainfall of 5-10 mms late tonight into Saturday morning. Winds are beginning to increase from the south along the west coast now, in advance of a trough of low pressure located near 15 W.

    More updates as required.

    How bad is this looking for Kerry tonight? I listen to Internet radio during the night and don't want the phone line to explode :) Thanks


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well believe it or not I stayed in Listowel (at a B & B) on my one trip to Ireland in 1978, so I know it's up towards the north of Kerry. In general, I don't think it will be that bad, it might not even be thundery until it moves further inland, but you can see there are two or three lines of showers waiting to sweep in tonight, so it should be clearing up there in the morning for a while after these move through. I'm going to say blustery at times but nothing too exceptional. Could get rougher as these lines move further east and redevelop in the daytime heating Saturday morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Well believe it or not I stayed in Listowel (at a B & B) on my one trip to Ireland in 1978, so I know it's up towards the north of Kerry. In general, I don't think it will be that bad, it might not even be thundery until it moves further inland, but you can see there are two or three lines of showers waiting to sweep in tonight, so it should be clearing up there in the morning for a while after these move through. I'm going to say blustery at times but nothing too exceptional. Could get rougher as these lines move further east and redevelop in the daytime heating Saturday morning.

    Well well MTC , if you travelled the N69 Tralee/Listowel road at that time you will have passed within metres of my ancestral homeland ;), have moved to a slightly more erm elevated location since then .

    Meanwhile on weather related matters the local ' Weathershield ' is working very well atm , apart from swarms of flying insects the past week has produced 6.3mm of rain ,and no thunder whatsoever , and that depite passing CBs almost daily , well enough is enough i say :rolleyes:.

    Btw MTC well done on your continuing contribution to this forum , first class .

    Anyways going on 08 form the first snowfall is only 4 months away :p..........in Wickla.


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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭mike2084


    Well believe it or not I stayed in Listowel (at a B & B) on my one trip to Ireland in 1978, so I know it's up towards the north of Kerry. In general, I don't think it will be that bad, it might not even be thundery until it moves further inland, but you can see there are two or three lines of showers waiting to sweep in tonight, so it should be clearing up there in the morning for a while after these move through. I'm going to say blustery at times but nothing too exceptional. Could get rougher as these lines move further east and redevelop in the daytime heating Saturday morning.

    Thanks for that. Thunder frightens the life out of me. I must be one of the few on here that dosen't want to see thunder around. Hope you get to visit us again sometime ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I remember visiting Dingle and Tralee, and so I must have driven that road, but the next places that I actually remember are the Cliffs of Moher, Galway and Westport. That stretch is about where the weather finally became pleasant enough to get out of the car. Is there some small town called Waterville in south Kerry, I seem to recall something like a hurricane blowing there the day or two before Tralee, but then it was much nicer. Got locked out of the rental car at that sandy beach at the end of a long bay, I'm sure you know where, and there was some Dutch tourist who "knew how to" get into the car with a coat hanger. I'm guessing it wasn't his first time doing that, but it was a good thing for us. My travelling companion almost died from food poisoning in some Irish town which I will be too diplomatic to name, not a large place. That was the same day that Argentina won the world cup.

    Luckily, no other boring details of my trip come immediately to mind. Saw some lovely gardens at a castle somewhere east of Galway, where was that because I want to see that again if I ever make a second trip?

    Didn't go far enough north, I'm sure, would like to see rest of Mayo and Donegal some time too. But Kerry is of course quite stunning if you can actually see the landscape.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭kerry1960


    Ah ha MTC , June 25th 1978 ,Argentina v Holland , had to check the date but i do remember watching that final , and unless i'm mistaken that was a very poor (normal) summer in our soggy little island , also weatherwise i have a recollection of a spell of quite wintry weather (jan 77 or 78) really not sure , but i do know for a fact that local people were skiing on the Slieve Mish Mountains outside Tralee close to that time , and it has never happened since .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Welsh Wizard


    So how's it fixed for camping on the east coast tommorrow...??
    Suppose sun and the odd shower....

    Thunder and lightning would be good camping... Great light display and such a powerful sound... Frightens the B'jaysus outta me though...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 4 July, 2009
    _________________________

    Alert for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms in various parts of Ireland today and tomorrow, some places could see minor flooding from 30 mms of rain ... but amounts will be quite variable.

    TODAY will start out cloudy with light showers in the east, heavier showers in central and western regions, and these could begin to turn thundery as they slowly move further east. In between these semi-organized bands of rain the sun could make brief appearances, and highs will be near 17 C. The south coast will have winds of about 20-35 mph from the south, elsewhere, winds will not be too strong except for the odd gust to 35 mph near heavy showers perhaps. Watch for updates as there could be some locally very heavy showers or storms by mid-day.

    TONIGHT will continue partly to mostly cloudy with further showers, strong southerly to SW'ly breezes, and a somewhat cooler feel to the overnight low of about 9-11 C.

    SUNDAY will produce yet another round of heavy showers and thundershowers, some with hail, as freezing levels will be much lower (down to about 12,000 ft) ... highs may stall at about 13-15 C in many parts and once again there may be a few locations seeing torrential showers at times. There will also be brief sunny intervals. Winds will tend to drop off in the northern half of the country as a slack gradient moves across in association with low pressure, but the south coast will remain breezy all day.

    MONDAY will be a cool, mostly cloudy day with more showers although a tendency to lower rainfall amounts (2-4 mms for many). Winds will swing around gradually to WNW 20-30 mph and the temperature range will be narrow from morning lows near 7 C to afternoon highs near 15 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY currently look a little on the chilly side especially for the eastern half of Ireland more exposed to a developing northerly wind that will really hit the UK more noticeably, and leave the west coast of Ireland almost unscathed. This may make for an east-west contrast of cloud and drizzle in the east, sunny intervals and slightly warmer daytime temperatures in the west. Highs both days should range from 14 C in Ulster to around 19 C in the west. Morning lows everywhere should be around 6-8 C.

    LATER IN THE WEEK a rather weak ridge of high pressure may bring dry if not particularly sunny weather, with near average July temperatures near 18 to 20 C daytime. A slight warming trend may follow although there are no strong indications of anything very warm for several weeks on any computer guidance, however unreliable it may be (so perhaps to hope it is unreliable then :cool: )

    Given my insatiable need for sleep at least once every 24 hours, I pass the baton to whoever would like to be in charge of watching the radar etc ... so far it looks as though the inland southwest has seen 10-15 mms of rain in many spots with the semi-organized trough now around Limerick to east of Cork.


  • Registered Users Posts: 422 ✭✭loup


    Thanks for this, south Dublin had heavy showers around 11am til about midday and these have now eased. Hoping for better weather this afternoon for a bbq!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Saturday 4th, 6:30 pm
    __________________________

    Possible heavy and thundery showers around Galway this evening, and a scattering of less active showers in other western counties and the southeast. Some of these latter may reach Dublin by 8 pm but so far nothing too heavy indicated there. Later tonight the general trend will be for the western showers to reach the eastern half of Ireland, and a new wave of showers to hit the southwest after midnight. Some areas in between could clear out and become rather foggy at times. Tomorrow still looks quite unsettled with potential for hail and thunder in the afternoon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Welsh Wizard


    UPDATE _ Saturday 4th, 6:30 pm
    __________________________

    Possible heavy and thundery showers around Galway this evening, and a scattering of less active showers in other western counties and the southeast. Some of these latter may reach Dublin by 8 pm but so far nothing too heavy indicated there. Later tonight the general trend will be for the western showers to reach the eastern half of Ireland, and a new wave of showers to hit the southwest after midnight. Some areas in between could clear out and become rather foggy at times. Tomorrow still looks quite unsettled with potential for hail and thunder in the afternoon.


    Thanks again MTC... Didn't venture too far with the tent, (back garden)
    Has hail always been present in summer months or is it just a fact of global warming...??


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Always present, I'm sure ... in fact it would be more frequent in a cooler summer climatic regime than the present time (because it's mostly caused by lower freezing levels in the atmosphere). Up to a point, when the ice age was in full swing I imagine your summers were about like they have now in northern Iceland. Large hail might show an increase with a warmer climate, but all sizes of hail, probably it would peak in a climate like the Little Ice Age, 2-3 deg cooler than nowadays.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 373 ✭✭devereaux17


    ok this might probably not be suitable for here but there is a very strange thing i notice in ireland and noticed for last 3 years, even when the daytime could be absolutely crap, nearly always at about 6 the weather picks up, why is this? it even happened last year and seems to be happening everytime weve gotten get a bad day this summer, im in dublin btw, south dub to be precise.


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