[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 27 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Heavy rainfall alert in place, 20 to 40 mm in many areas this morning, tapering off around mid-day except in north Leinster and east Ulster where it could continue to the afternoon. With this band of heavy rain, some embedded squally thunderstorms are possible and there could be very localized wind damage or hail reported, most likely in central Munster to south Connacht. After the band of rain moves through, some clearing may develop and winds will ease from southerly gales of 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 110 km/hr, to about 30 to 50 km/hr from the southwest this afternoon and evening. Intermittent light rain will return from the southwest by evening. It will be quite mild with highs near 10 C in north Leinster and east Ulster, to 14 C in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT into WEDNESDAY ... Storm "Diana" will move quickly past Ireland in two waves, the first one later tonight and Wednesday morning, and a second wave around mid-day. Winds will increase again to southerly 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed locations, veering slowly to southwest and easing slightly by afternoon or evening. Severe and damaging gusts are possible, especially around coastal Connacht, and possibly some other coastal areas. Overnight lows only falling to about 10 C, then highs around 12 or 13 C during the morning, with temperatures falling slowly by late afternoon, winds then steady and moderate southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 mm of rain on average but potential for 20 mm in some parts of the southeast as a secondary wave forms to the west of Cornwall and moves through in the evening.

THURSDAY ... Windy with passing squally showers, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy at times, further showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Overcast, mild, rain at times, moderate southwest winds could become strong again on Sunday. Highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, mild, possible stormy intervals to follow within a week to ten days.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with occasional rain mixing with melting snowflakes at times, highs near 3 C. Further rain-snow mix is expected here on Tuesday.

Watch for updates if storm "Diana" makes any more threatening moves than what you see in this forecast -- there is still some spread in the guidance on this storm which is currently just northwest of the Azores around 42N 36W.

[M.T. Cranium]

Forecast Update -- Tues 27 Nov 2018 -- 7:30 p.m.
______________________________________________


Storm "Diana" is bearing down rapidly on the southwest counties and due to its elongated shape it may have its greatest wind impacts on the south coast even as far east as Wexford tomorrow. The timing for strongest wind gusts appears to be 0800h Kerry to 1100h Waterford and about 1100-1200h Wexford.

A recent ship report taken surprisingly close to the centre of this well-forecasted cyclone showed 52 knot winds and a pressure of 954 mbs. This underscores the potential for damaging wind gusts to reach the south coast of Ireland even if Diana weakens slightly. Therefore I am upgrading previous wording and predicting the potential for 130 km/hr wind gusts in exposed areas of the south coast and 110 km/hr well inland where terrain does not block south to southwest winds from moving inland easily.

Unlike many storms on this sort of track, the effects may spread out more around the south and east and less dramatically for the west and north but we will maintain an alert to 120 km/hr for west coast exposed areas as a worst case scenario, don't be absolutely surprised if the actual results are a bit lower as the main force of this storm seems to be spinning off to its east as it moves northeastward at a rapid pace.

Current satellite fix on position is 45.8N 25.2W as of 1900h. Estimated central pressure was 950 mbs.

Stay safe and avoid unnecessary road travel especially in southern counties tomorrow.

The rest of the forecast remains about the same and there may be some outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain with the strong winds, making driving or walking that much more hazardous.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 28 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very windy along the south coast this morning, with some severe gusts possible, southerly winds 80 to 120 km/hr. Strong gusts will spread inland where terrain permits, but east coast may remain more moderate until mid-day. West coast likely to see moderate south to southwest winds veering to westerly and increasing to 70 to 100 km/hr. Galway Bay may experience higher gusts and some coastal flooding, but coastal flooding more widespread on south coast especially around times of high tides. Rain will increase gradually becoming more persistent mid-day and afternoon. About 10 to 15 mm rain for most places. Strong westerly winds will then sweep through central counties to reach the east coast (westerly 60 to 90 km/hr with some higher gusts). Very mild especially before the wind shifts to westerly, 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some further rain likely, moderate southwest winds continuing and a spell of heavier rain likely in the southeast towards Thursday morning. Lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and not quite as mild, scattered showers with some hail and thunder, winds southwest to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Highs about 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Rather windy especially in northern counties, passing showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of rain, mild in south (10 to 12 C), foggy and damp further north, 7 to 9 C. Moderate southwest winds near south coast, light east winds more likely further north.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, mild, highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several more days of mild temperatures and moderate winds with occasional rain as frontal systems continue to parade in from the Atlantic. The pattern looks set to change somewhat to colder near the middle of December.

My local weather on Tuesday was mild with rain (also) and the high was 6 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 29 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain this morning in eastern counties should clear before mid-day. There will be some sunny breaks this morning in western and central counties, followed by scattered showers, some of which could produce hail and thunder. Winds will increase gradually from the southwest to reach 50-80 km/hr, possibly closer to 100 km/hr in gusts near northern coasts. Not as mild but still a little above average with highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, windy, lows 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, breezy to windy at times (WSW 40 to 70 km/hr). Highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of rain from early morning to mid-day, more persistent in south, then brief clearing, followed by more rain by the evening hours, this time heavier in central counties. Overall about 10-15 mm rainfalls are expected. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... Intervals of moderate or heavy rain at times with gusty southwest winds, more likely to be strong near south and southwest coasts. Highs generally close to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little colder towards the end of next week, although not sharp wintry cold, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C by Friday or Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend for several days back towards 10 C, however the Atlantic looks like it has had enough action for a while and wants to rest again. (perhaps I am projecting)

My local weather was quite pleasant, dry although cloudy and mild at 8 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 30 November, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, some rather heavy with hail and thunder, breezy to windy at times (WSW 40 to 70 km/hr, and gusts to near 100 km/hr in exposed coastal areas of west and north). Highs 8 to 10 C. Somewhat less windy by afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Clearing in parts of inland north may allow a slight frost to develop, lows -1 to +3 C, overcast further south with rain developing by morning, lows 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Outbreaks of rain from early morning to mid-day, more persistent in south, then brief clearing, followed by more rain by the evening hours, this time heavier in central counties. Overall about 10-15 mm rainfalls are expected. with highs 7 to 11 C. Winds near the south coast may become moderate southwesterly as low pressure passes, 50 to 80 km/hr, veering westerly and easing. Further north, winds will be light to moderate easterly for a time, then variable.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain possible.

MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 8 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Heavy rain is possible across the south, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this on top of about 50 mm over the previous few days may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central Connacht. Highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, highs 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY appears very unsettled with strong westerly winds at times, more outbreaks of rain with 30 to 50 mm potential, and highs 8 to 11 C (but prone to turning much colder at times in Ulster). Some intervals of colder northwest winds during this period may bring local snow on hills in the north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder by mid-month, likely to remain windy and unsettled with more chances for wintry mixtures of precipitation as the middle of December approaches.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a little rain at times and mild, highs near 7 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 1 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... As heavier rain moves east across Ulster this morning, skies will become partly cloudy in many areas with scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mingled with sunny breaks, and it will be quite mild in the south with highs 11 to 13 C, while further north it will remain overcast and highs will be only 7 or 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times, foggy in south and west, lows 2 to 5 C. Clear intervals to start the night in north and east, slight frosts then rising temperatures under cloud towards morning, lows -2 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, with highs near 10 or 11 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain possible.

MONDAY ... Showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs near 8 C. About 2 to 5 mm rain likely. Clearing for the overnight hours may bring a sharp frost to some parts of Ulster and north Leinster.

TUESDAY ... After frost clears some northeastern counties, cloud will spread in then heavy rain will be likely across the south, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this on top of about 50 mm over the previous few days may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry until mid-day, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central Connacht. Rain will eventually spread to most northern areas later in the day also, 10 to 20 mm can be expected there. Morning lows -2 to +2 C north and east, 4 to 7 C south and west, then highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north, and about 8 C from Galway across to Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. A sharp frost may once again develop by evening in advance of the next system's cloud spreading in after midnight.

THURSDAY ... Windy with rain at times, highs 9 to 12 C, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will see further strong winds veering more to west then northwest, with fewer showers although not completely dry, and slowly falling temperatures, around 8 C Friday and 6 C Saturday.

SUNDAY may bring a respite from the wind as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between systems, some sunshine with morning frosts and afternoon highs 5 to 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... More wind and rain seem inevitable for part of the following week, with milder temperatures returning briefly.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and foggy with persistent light rain and highs near 5 C. We are expecting a rather unusual week of dry weather to begin around Sunday after one more day in the current pattern, may even see glimpses of the Sun which will be welcome.

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 2 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few brighter intervals at first, very mild in the south, turning milder in the north rather gradually, with rain becoming more persistent by afternoon, 10 to 20 mm possible. Highs near 10 or 11 C except 12 to 14 C inland south. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr at least near some coasts.

TONIGHT ... Another interval of rain likely with some heavy falls possible in the south (20 mm). Mild, lows 6 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending with showers becoming widely scattered then clearing, highs 8 to 10 C. Clearing and cold by evening.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Clear and cold with widespread sharp frost likely, lows -4 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... After frost slowly clears from some northeastern counties, cloud will spread in then heavy rain will be likely across the south by afternoon and evening, 20 to 40 mm amounts may occur, and this combined with some earlier rainfalls may lead to some flooding. This low may track far enough south to leave some parts of Ulster and north Connacht dry until mid-day, but with some risk of wet snow on hills near the northern fringes of the rainfall in central and northern Connacht then later into Ulster. Rain will eventually spread to most northern areas later in the day and overnight into Wednesday morning, and 10 to 20 mm can be expected there. Morning lows -4 to +2 C, then highs near 10 C on the south coast, but only 3 to 6 C further north, and about 8 C from Galway across to Dublin.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine briefly as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts east between low pressure systems, lows 1 to 3 C and highs 5 to 8 C. A sharp frost may once again develop by evening in advance of the next system's cloud spreading in after midnight.

THURSDAY ... Early frost clearing rapidly in early morning hours, becoming windy with rain at times, highs 9 to 12 C, winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr. About 20 to 30 mm rain possible.

FRIDAY ... Windy with passing showers, some sunny intervals, feeling cold in strong west to northwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr (possibly stronger in Ulster). Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Winds easing gradually, some sunny intervals, cold. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and milder again with some rain likely, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually a dry spell with near normal temperatures for mid-December can be expected in the second week of the month, and it could turn colder during that time.

My local weather was dry with some glimpses of sunshine through extensive higher cloud layers, and highs near 5 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 3 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain clearing east this morning, followed by partly cloudy skies with some sunshine by afternoon. Highs about 9 or 10 C except closer to 12 C near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals and cold, frost developing, lows -3 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud by mid-day, rain spreading into south and west by late afternoon. Rather cold with temperatures slowly rising throughout the day to reach about 10 C by evening in the south, 7 in central counties and only about 4 or 5 C in Ulster. Rain will continue most of the night, with some outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in higher parts of the north, overnight lows rising to 8 C in south, staying close to 2 or 3 C in north. About 15 to 30 mm of rain will fall in the south, 5 to 15 mm further north (some 3 to 5 cm snow accumulations on higher ground possible in Ulster and Connacht, mainly above 200 metres asl).

WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending, some clearing by late morning, but a few showers continuing to feed in from west coast, highs 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with rain, milder, lows 7 to 10 C and highs near 12 C. About 20-30 mm of rain likely. Winds southwest rising to 70 to 100 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy with passing squally showers, turning colder during the day with temperatures falling from morning highs of 10 C to about 5 C in the afternoon. Winds west to northwest 70 to 120 km/hr, strongest near northwest coasts.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold, some sunny intervals developing, winds northwest backing to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows about 2 C and highs about 6 or 7 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will bring a return of milder, wet weather and some fog, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Guidance is rather scattered beyond the seven day outlook and there are some signs of a turn to colder but dry weather, although another set of models maintain the unsettled westerly flow longer.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a few breaks, and rather cold with highs of about 4 C.

[M.T. Cranium]

Tuesday, 4 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals, then increasing cloud. The chilly start will linger in east and north most of the day, while it gets more rapidly milder in the south and west. After thicker cloud arrives, rain will start by mid-afternoon in the south and parts of the west, however it will only become moderately heavy tonight. Winds will increase in the south to south-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, while remaining fairly light in most other places until after dark. Highs by late afternoon 8 to 10 C south and west, 6 C east and north.

TONIGHT ... Breezy with 10-15 mm of rain in many places, some mixing with sleet or wet snow on higher terrain in the north well inland from coasts (mostly above 300 metres elevation). Turning quite mild in the south and about as far north as Galway to Dublin eventually, with temperatures reaching 11 or 12 C overnight before falling back slightly by morning. The trend further north, while similar, will only reach about 7 or 8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing east, then variable cloud, rather mild, moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by afternoon, highs about 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, mostly rather light and drizzly, and moderate southwest winds 50 to 70 km/hr, morning lows 6 to 8 C and afternoon highs 11 to 13 C. Becoming very windy overnight, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, squally showers, temperatures slowly falling to about 7 C.

FRIDAY ... During the early morning hours, very windy with squally showers, winds west-southwest 80 to 120 km/hr. During the day, partly to mostly cloudy, passing squally showers with hail, longer dry intervals near east and south coast, frequent rain likely in west and north, and very windy all day (veering to west-northwest 80 to 120 km/hr). Northwest coastal regions will get the strongest gusts. Temperatures on Friday will fall slowly to about 6 C then remain steady.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather windy, variable cloud for most of the day with another interval of rain developing by late afternoon and evening, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy, clearing slowly, although some residual showers near north coast, cold. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... High pressure will build over Ireland and transfer most of its central pressure into Scotland linking to high pressure in Sweden. This will gradually set up an easterly spell of winds and it will become quite cold, daytime highs 4 to 7 C and overnight lows about -3 to -1 C. There should be some sunshine at least with this early part of the cold spell.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Easterly winds will continue, sleety light precipitation will appear near east coast at times by mid-week, and this could turn to snow inland over higher ground and possibly even over most elevations, although amounts appear likely to be small. Highs will remain quite cold in the 3 to 6 C range, lows -4 to +1 C (the milder nights due to east winds off the still rather warm Irish Sea).

This spell may moderate to something more average although still rather dry, and the research that I've done indicates that any settled periods lasting to about the 20th would likely be followed by stormy intervals 21st to 23rd, details on that a long way off but could involve a brief return to mild, wet weather and another round of strong northwest winds similar to this coming Friday, so that would be my best guess for the sort of weather pattern that might greet a certain S. Claus of the North Pole on the 24th. We shall see about that.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and cold, high pressure is building up over the interior valleys of B.C. and this often promotes an inversion and low cloud ceilings. It might be sunny in the alpine regions but you have to get there to find out. There was the odd snowflake drifting around in the breeze (local lakes are all open, ice does not form on them except in very cold winters), and it was about 2 or 3 degrees for a high.

[M.T. Cranium]

Wednesday, 5 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain gradually ending this morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies with a few breaks, and isolated showers or patches of drizzly light rain, winds turning more westerly by afternoon and backing to southerly by evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Misty, some fog on hills, rain developing, 3 to 7 mm on average. Lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Mild with occasional rain, 10 to 15 mm potential. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Becoming windy with some severe gusts near coasts (south and west in particular), winds southwest to west 70 to 110 km/hr. Rain becoming squally and showery, a further 5 to 10 mm likely, temperatures steady 7 or 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy, turning slightly colder by afternoon, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, passing squalls of rain or hail, some breaks in the overcast near south and east coasts. Highs 8 or 9 C in the morning, temperatures about 6 or 7 by afternoon.

SATURDAY ... Overcast, occasional rain, highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, rather cold, morning frosts with lows -2 to +2 C, afternoon highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY ... A sharp frost likely, sunny intervals, possibly some isolated showers or sleety light rain developing by afternoon, in brisk east winds. Lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... The cold air will remain in place but guidance splits on whether Atlantic moisture makes any kind of a push back (which could lead to sleet or snow), or if high pressure remains close enough that the weather is generally settled later in the week with a few sea-effect streamers of hail, cold rain or sleet. Eventually this cold spell probably ends at least briefly with an Atlantic storm system pushing back in around the 20th or 21st.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with glimpses of blue sky off to our northeast over higher terrain, but the sun never got into that part of the sky so it was sunny a few miles away. It was quite cold, highs barely above freezing at about 2 C. There's enough cloud to keep the nights from being much colder than the days though. The snow line here remains 200 metres above the valley floor on all the local hills and it's quite a sharp cutoff indicating that no melting is taking place up there.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thursday, 6 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Misty and mild with occasional rain, rather foggy in higher elevations, about 10 to 20 mm rain expected. Highs 11 to 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr near exposed coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr inland.

TONIGHT ... Becoming very windy towards midnight, especially near west coast and extending into Ulster and north midlands overnight. Winds southwest 80 to 120 km/hr, veering more westerly towards morning. Some severe and damaging gusts are likely near Donegal Bay. Squally showers will continue, and temperatures will be falling slowly from near 12 C at first to 7 C by morning.

FRIDAY ... Very windy in northern counties, westerly 80 to 120 km/hr, continued risk of damaging gusts. Squally showers with hail and thunder possible. Somewhat less extreme further south but certainly a windy day with passing showers, winds westerly 60 to 100 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range.

SATURDAY ... Windy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts in north, and about 10 mm of rain likely. Turning colder overnight into Sunday morning, winds northwest 60 to 100 km/hr, lows near 4 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers, some sunny intervals, and highs only 5 to 7 C. Winds north-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... After a slight frost, some sunshine and cold, lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Guidance has recently changed rather abruptly -- the high that was supposed to hang around to the north and produce east winds is being shown under various degrees of attack from the Atlantic which spins off a number of strong disturbances next week, according to most of the models. There could be some strong westerly winds again if this new solution holds, but I suspect it may be an episode of what we call "model chaos" or the classic flip-flop where the former solution comes back into view if you wait a day or two. It may be a result of a difficult to forecast low crossing the southern U.S. this weekend and reaching the western Atlantic on Monday, now looking more energetic than previously thought. So in other words, we can't be too sure what to trust in these model offerings, but it is no longer all that likely to stay dry or settled. As to the cold part of the previous outlook, that may generally hold, because while the Atlantic seems capable of pushing back in, it may not be bringing very mild air along, but working instead with the cold air that is left behind by Sunday's cold outbreak and more cold air flooding south from Greenland into the north central Atlantic. What all this means is that there could be some very nasty weather systems developing mid to late week (around Thursday 13th) and from then to about the 21st frequent wind, sometimes gale force, and rain with some risk of snow in the mix. So don't be lulled into a false sense of security by today's rather benign mild conditions.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with some cloud returning by late afternoon, and cold, highs near 2 C. The storm I mentioned crossing the southern U.S. is slowly moving into southern California and Arizona tonight, and will be in Texas by the weekend, bringing a risk of freezing rain and heavy snow to parts of the interior southeastern states by Sunday night and Monday. Washington D.C. seems to be near the northern edge of the likely snowfall zone, so it should largely miss the northeast U.S., and move out into the western Atlantic. We'll be keeping a close eye on this storm which might arrive in Ireland around Thursday of next week.

[M.T. Cranium]

Friday, 7 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and turning colder with passing squally showers, some with hail and thunder, more frequent in north and west. Some sunny intervals for south and east between showers. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr for most, 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Temperatures steady or slowly falling in the 7 to 9 C range.

TONIGHT ... Windy, occasional rain, temperatures steady near 6 C. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Rainfalls of 5 to 15 mm expected in total.

SATURDAY ... Continued windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier again towards late afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 100 km/hr near coasts. Highs of 9 or 10 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Windy, rain becoming showery, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some stronger gusts in west and north. Lows about 3 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and colder again with northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers and some sunny breaks, highs about 7 C.

MONDAY ... Some clear intervals in the early morning, slight frosts but clouding over from west by morning, then cloudy with brief sunny breaks (more likely in east), drizzle or light rain developing from west, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds, a little milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring strong southwest to west winds at times, rain and temperatures in the 8 to 10 C range. Although that may sound mild, in these strong winds it may feel quite cold generally.

OUTLOOK ... the period from the end of next week right up to the Christmas holiday period looks unsettled with frequent passing lows, bouts of wind and rain, and sometimes rather severe gusts possible, and temperatures will be mostly in the 5 to 9 C range.

My local weather was cold and sunny most of the day with occasional cloudy intervals, a morning low of about -7 C and a daytime high only around -2 C, then by evening it had fallen back to -8 C with a gusty east wind coming down from local mountains for a time, making it feel like it was -15 C. This is the coldest we've had so far this early winter (no snow on the ground so it has frozen slightly near the surface).

A storm is brewing over northern Mexico and Arizona-New Mexico, moving into Texas later today with wintry outbreaks developing in states from Oklahoma east to South Carolina and northern Georgia. This will bring 20 to 30 cms of snow to some parts of North Carolina and south central Virginia over the weekend, with the northern limit of snow likely to be Washington D.C. east to Ocean City Maryland. At this point the storm is not expected to affect the northeastern states or Great Lakes regions which will stay under cold high pressure.

[M.T. Cranium]

Saturday, 8 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Continued windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavier again towards late afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some local gusts to 100 km/hr near coasts. Highs of 9 to 12 C, mildest in south and southeast. About 5-10 mm of rain for most.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Windy, rain becoming showery, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, some stronger gusts in west and north. Lows about 3 C. A further 5 mm of rain in most places.

SUNDAY ... Continued rather windy and colder again with northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers and some sunny breaks, highs about 7 C. Winds easing towards late afternoon and backing to west then southwest overnight.

MONDAY ... Some clear intervals in the early morning, slight frosts but clouding over from west by morning, then cloudy with brief sunny breaks (more likely in east), drizzle or light rain developing from west, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Light rain or drizzle, moderate southwest winds, a little milder, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will bring strong southwest to west winds at times, rain and temperatures in the 6 to 10 C range. Although that may sound mild, in these strong winds it may feel quite cold generally. There could be one glancing blow from a stronger Atlantic storm in this period, affecting mostly the northwestern counties with gusts to 120 km/hr. It appears somewhat more moderate for the south and east. Some slight frosts could develop at night in any breaks in overcast, as the jet stream will be dropping a bit further south and taking the milder air masses down towards the Biscay region.

OUTLOOK ... There are very interesting maps to ponder by next weekend and into the following week. At that time scale, we can't be too confident any of them will materialize, but in one case I am actually hoping the map is wrong because it would produce a storm to rival "Darwin" in Feb 2014 and we remember how much damage and disruption that brought. The map in question is the current day 9 output from the leading European model (meaning Sunday into early Monday of next weekend). Much less threatening lows are shown on other guidance but in roughly the same place (off the west coast of Ireland). Another set of maps that catches your attention shows up near the end of the 16-day GFS model run, where we find strong northwest winds followed by a very cold arctic outbreak just in time for Christmas. This is actually just about what my long-range forecast was suggesting might happen, so in this case I hope it does happen but at the same time if it doesn't, there's the compensation that travel in Ireland and the U.K. won't be disrupted by snow in some places (which would be likely if the maps are accurate). So be aware, maps at this time scale are speculative at best and their main usefulness is to alert us to potential weather types that could occur around then, I tend to use this rule -- a four day forecast map is likely to verify somewhere close to its target within 12 hours, an eight day forecast map could verify somewhere within a few hundred miles within a day or two of its intended timing, and a sixteen day map could verify once or twice a season somewhere on earth. Well it's not quite that bad, but a fairly good rule to keep in mind.

My local weather remains very cold, it cleared up again during the day to reveal stunning views of snow-covered mountains (snow up there is a rather thin 5-10 cm covering) and the high was only -3 C. It is currently clear and -10 C. Heavy rain is spreading east from Texas and turning to sleet in parts of Arkansas now, the first stage of what may turn out to be an unusual heavy snowfall event for places like Richmond VA and Raleigh-Durham NC. This still appears likely to cut off just south of the Washington D.C. region and miss NYC and Boston. Remnants of this low may bring the strong winds to Ireland around next Thursday or so (not the storm for the following weekend, that won't even be born until a week from now, if it happens that way).

[M.T. Cranium]

Sunday, 9 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy, windy and feeling colder with passing showers and some sunny breaks. Highs 8 to 10 C. Winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr easing by afternoon, backing to westerly 50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, winds easing to calm inland with slight frosts possible, lows 1 to 4 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy in the west and north, some light rain developing by late in the day. Partly cloudy to overcast elsewhere but dry. Highs about 8 C east to 11 C west.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, occasional light rain, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A few intervals of light rain, brisk south to southeast winds developing, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... There may be some stronger winds again by end of the week or into the weekend. While the intense storm shown on the European model has retreated to the central Atlantic during the weekend, other disturbances could still intensify to gale if not storm force around the weekend, while temperatures remain in the 7 to 10 C range. One change in model guidance has been that the colder air to the east, which you may recall was once thought likely to reach western Europe, is proving a little less of a pushover for the Atlantic than was the trend over the past few days, and may in fact try to work its way as far west as the eastern parts of Britain. This would have the effect of deflecting any strong storms towards Iceland and keeping Ireland in a rather bland transitional zone between regimes. However, another consequence is that the air mass contrast then remains in place long enough to continue in place when the energy peak around the 21st develops, and that could make any Atlantic storms around that date quite intense, with potential for much colder weather to follow around Christmas.

My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny and cold, although not quite as brisk as the past few days with the high creeping back up to about -1 C. It has turned cloudy tonight keeping our temperature near that same level. Heavy rain has spread through the southeastern states and snow is breaking out in parts of NC and VA, still expected to stay mostly south of Washington D.C. then this storm will move into the Atlantic by Monday night and head towards Iceland. Ireland may feel a slight after-effect in the form of a trailing frontal trough reaching the west coast around Thursday.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday, 10 December, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, spotty light rain near west coast later in the day, not as windy and while rather cold at first, milder again by afternoon and evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, occasional light rain, mostly confined to west, lows 6 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Overcast, rather foggy in higher elevations, drizzle or light rain becoming sleety on some higher slopes, highs 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain, stronger southeast winds developing to 50-80 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 7 to 9 C, except about 11 C in west Munster. About 10-15 mm rainfalls expected.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, colder especially in Leinster and Ulster as east winds briefly push into those regions, highs only 5 to 8 C. Partly to mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of rain in south and west, staying milder near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and rather mild with rain at times, highs near 11 C. South to southwest winds 70-110 km/hr possible.

OUTLOOK ... Very windy next weekend, details may change closer to the time but winds could gust to 120 km/hr during Saturday and then Sunday would likely remain windy, temperatures near 10 C. Following that, another very strong Atlantic storm is expected to develop in the central regions of the ocean and make some progress east, while engaging with the colder air lurking to the north. This sets up various outcomes on different guidance in the days leading up to Christmas, but the theme is generally one of strong winds, slowly falling temperatures and increasing chances for snow in the mix. We can deal with the details when the models are in better agreement. The coldest period appears to be well-timed for 24th-26th of December, but while that may set a festive mood, it may also be a problem for people with travel plans. Eastern England could be harder hit by any wintry weather in this scenario so if you're travelling through London that might become an issue too.

My local weather remained dry although a lot of low cloud formed on Sunday and it turned just a bit milder, reaching +1 C. Snow is likely to start falling here later today but heavier amounts are due mid-week (the ground is still bare although slightly frozen in our valley here, the snow line remains stuck at 200 metres above us -- it's a fifteen minute drive to get into 10-15 cm snow depths and ski trails that are up about 1,000 metres above sea level). The east coast storm delivered what was promised and more, Richmond VA had 29 cms of snow, and the two Washington airports had nothing. The snow apparently cut off a few miles south of DCA, and now most of this storm is over the Atlantic. Two more will form in a chain along its frontal boundary and those will each come a bit closer to Ireland later in the week, this first one is headed more towards western Iceland.