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07-12-2018, 10:34   #736
JCX BXC
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Ferocious shower of graupel in West Clare, great to see some exciting weather. Temperature 4.6c and dropping.
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07-12-2018, 11:06   #737
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Looking like it’s going to be storm watch next week given the latest GFS output. Severe weather likely. A very violent depression showing for next Thursday.
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07-12-2018, 11:35   #738
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Looking like it’s going to be storm watch next week given the latest GFS output. Severe weather likely. A very violent depression showing for next Thursday.
From what i've notice over the last few months following these threads is that anything over 24hrs seem to be FI when it comes to any storm so i'd expect or wouldn't be suprised to see that downgraded.

Today, its bloody freezing now in Dublin, i'd expect some of that rain we are having to fall as snow in the Wicklow mountains.
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07-12-2018, 11:42   #739
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From what i've notice over the last few months following these threads is that anything over 24hrs seem to be FI when it comes to any storm so i'd expect or wouldn't be suprised to see that downgraded.

Today, its bloody freezing now in Dublin, i'd expect some of that rain we are having to fall as snow in the Wicklow mountains.
I'm with you. They nearly always spin N/W from where they are plotted a week out.. 7 days out I'll be more interested in a storm heading for France.
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07-12-2018, 12:18   #740
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John Hammond, a former UK Met Office forecaster, wrote the following on his blog:

"There are signs of more severe cold as we head into the New Year

You’ll have inferred, then, that I am not yet going to commit: Green or White Christmas? It’s simply too far off!

However, there are several reasons within the set-up of the atmosphere this winter that suggest the cold air will be back sooner rather than later. El Nino is one; the cycle of spots on the sun is another even more distant influencer.

Additionally, in the last few weeks I’ve spoken of signs that the usually strong stratospheric westerly winds that circle the Arctic (know as the Polar Vortex) may weaken markedly as December ends. This signal is becoming more ominous. It’s important because it introduces the possibility of a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ in which the Polar Vortex goes fully into reverse. Ultimately, it was this which led to the severely cold spell that struck the UK late last winter.

From start to finish, this process takes several days, if not weeks, before such a reversal works its way down to ground level. But on balance, there is an increasing chance that cold air will return from the north or the east as we go later through the Christmas period, and more particularly into the New Year.

Exciting times ahead – for the child and the weather enthusiast in all of us!"

Also, Ian Ferguson, a current Uk Met office employee, has said their main model(glosea5 ?) suggests a SSW will occur at the end of the month
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07-12-2018, 12:40   #741
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Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
John Hammond, a former UK Met Office forecaster, wrote the following on his blog:

"There are signs of more severe cold as we head into the New Year

You’ll have inferred, then, that I am not yet going to commit: Green or White Christmas? It’s simply too far off!

However, there are several reasons within the set-up of the atmosphere this winter that suggest the cold air will be back sooner rather than later. El Nino is one; the cycle of spots on the sun is another even more distant influencer.

Additionally, in the last few weeks I’ve spoken of signs that the usually strong stratospheric westerly winds that circle the Arctic (know as the Polar Vortex) may weaken markedly as December ends. This signal is becoming more ominous. It’s important because it introduces the possibility of a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ in which the Polar Vortex goes fully into reverse. Ultimately, it was this which led to the severely cold spell that struck the UK late last winter.

From start to finish, this process takes several days, if not weeks, before such a reversal works its way down to ground level. But on balance, there is an increasing chance that cold air will return from the north or the east as we go later through the Christmas period, and more particularly into the New Year.

Exciting times ahead – for the child and the weather enthusiast in all of us!"

Also, Ian Ferguson, a current Uk Met office employee, has said their main model(glosea5 ?) suggests a SSW will occur at the end of the month
Ah Nacho Libre, ever the positive voice for us cold lovers!
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07-12-2018, 17:00   #742
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bitterly cold in cork city with winds starting to pick up now and very heavy, squally showers out of nowhere. Goes from blue sky to darkness. Worst kind of weather. Come on the snow!
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07-12-2018, 17:03   #743
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Ferocious winds out here now. Just nearly sucked out of the door letting a cat out.

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
A further spell of strong winds will occur later today and tonight. Westerly winds with mean winds of 55 to 65 km/h and gusts of 100km/h are possible, especially in coastal areas. High seas will bring a risk of coastal flooding.

Issued: Friday 07 December 2018 13:35

Updated: Friday 07 December 2018 13:35

Valid from Friday 07 December 2018 16:00 to Saturday 08 December 2018 01:00

marine even higher.. west mayo offshore
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07-12-2018, 17:37   #744
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bitterly cold in cork city with winds starting to pick up now and very heavy, squally showers out of nowhere. Goes from blue sky to darkness. Worst kind of weather. Come on the snow!
I think that was just daytime turning into night, given the time of around 17:00.
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07-12-2018, 17:50   #745
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Dear Lord!

That was thunder and a massive gale gust. Worse than anything last night here. Startled,,Gutters and piping are rattling and shaking, and so am I.. . long night ahead.
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07-12-2018, 17:57   #746
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I think that was just daytime turning into night, given the time of around 17:00.
Haha but nah it was the clouds because it went back to bright
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07-12-2018, 21:10   #747
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Both the ECM and CFS are agreeing on a Greenland high for mid January. Obviously six weeks out from now is very far out in weather terms but it is an unusually strong signal and the seasonal models have been hinting at this so I would say this is more likely to happen than usual. (If I was picky I'd like the Euro trough on the CFS to be further south like the ECM but I'm not gonna complain!)

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...43172229439489
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08-12-2018, 08:54   #748
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Mr. Empty heads spidy senses are twitching!
Will the polar express be testing the waters soon!?
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08-12-2018, 09:27   #749
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Mr. Empty heads spidy senses are twitching!
Will the polar express be testing the waters soon!?
Check out MT's update this morning, it would appear his seasonal forecast of a stormy run up to Xmas followed by an outbreak of arctic air late December / early January might now be coming into play.......

D
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08-12-2018, 09:58   #750
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Check out MT's update this morning, it would appear his seasonal forecast of a stormy run up to Xmas followed by an outbreak of arctic air late December / early January might now be coming into play.......

D
Well OK! I can believe that. High winds here and sheeting icy deluges.. and guess who has to go out for turf.... will have a look at the ocean perforce... should be magnificently wild...
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