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07-12-2018, 08:53   #16
Rebelbrowser
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Well still 18 days away but signs aren't great right now.....

The GFS is still two days away from showing its hand for 25/12 but the forecast for up to 23/12 is for Atlantic front after Atlantic front after.... (you get the picture). Its last frames tend to suggest the Azores High then coming to visit. Snowbie hell....

The CFS looks similar I'm afraid with a very mild Christmas day forecast. Should be dry though. This is the forecast where we say goodbye to the CFS til next November. Its the main models from now on really.

Charts below if you can bear them. Still plenty time to change at least and I note references in other threads to the ECM long term model showing signals for blocking by late December so we live in hope.....

CFS Pressure chart



CFS Temps



GFS 23/12 Pressure Chart

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09-12-2018, 10:35   #17
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Can't post pictures but as mentioned in other threads the GFS now goes out to 1am on Christmas day and shows a visit from the North Pole area to Ireland around that time... oh and it isn't the big man in red.
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11-12-2018, 09:14   #18
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GFS feeling in a festive mood this morning - a brief put potent north easterly, it would deliver Irish sea streamers








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13-12-2018, 09:37   #19
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Hard to be optimistic about anything weather related (in fact, anything fullstop!) looking out the window this morning - a truly offensive day. If its a white Christmas you are after then you can easily see how this Atlantic sourced muck might continue over the festive period but, equally, all hope still not lost by any means. Still some positive straws in the wind out there. Looking at the charts the GFS is still the only one going out to 25/12 - and it is not bad at all, showing -6 uppers over most of the country. Crudely (and I know this is not a hard and fast rule) you need -8 uppers for snow so we are not far off where we need to be. The ECM only goes out to 23/12 but to the untrained eye its chart for that day is trending ok as well with a bit of a block forming out in the Atlantic to hopefully cut off the present storm fest.

I have also pasted below the "postage stamp" view of the 0z GFS which shows 21 different permutations for the big day. They are are a bit of mixed bag - being honest you would need someone wiser than I to comment on them.

Anyway, keep the faith on this awful, awful, day.

Charts below...

GFS 25/12


ECM 23/12


GFS Postage Stamps 25/12

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Yesterday, 09:31   #20
Rebelbrowser
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Getting interesting....






The Estate of Bing Crosby could yet do very well from Spotify play royalties between now and 25 December.....
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Yesterday, 23:02   #21
nacho libre
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The ECM is saying no to a white christmas.
The latest GFS seems to have swung towards it too. I am hoping to be surprised in the morning, but i don't think i will be. Feck it anyway
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