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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 264 44.90%
No impact 133 22.62%
Global warming is here to stay 95 16.16%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 96 16.33%
Voters: 588. You may not vote on this poll

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15-11-2018, 22:17   #691
gally74
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I just watched the entire video, very interesting that the mathematical theory can be mapped almost exactly to the recent historic data.
We will probably find out within a decade whether this theory is correct ot not.
I'm not a scientist. Engineer by profession. But she does a real good job explaining the cycles etc. I never believe d the carbon story, but don't agree with carbon fuels. The cycles at is so interesting. Here's to alpine winters in 5 to 10 years time
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15-11-2018, 22:27   #692
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She gives an interview here which I found easier to understand and made me edit my original post https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_wB46mgJrzI
this modern minimum to last from 2020 to 2055...
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15-11-2018, 22:59   #693
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Originally Posted by SeaBreezes View Post
She gives an interview here which I found easier to understand and made me edit my original post https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_wB46mgJrzI
this modern minimum to last from 2020 to 2055...
Please put the original back as it has all the graphics she used.
Keep both videos.
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15-11-2018, 23:01   #694
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Please put the original back as it has all the graphics she used.
Keep both videos.
Thank you
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15-11-2018, 23:45   #695
SeaBreezes
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Please put the original back as it has all the graphics she used.
Keep both videos.
Didn't remove anything. Just my summary. Also I see Pa Elgrande had posted the same video before me in the thread, apologies for posting it twice.

I liked the summary of expected changes in this link(sorry no idea of the validity of science behind it)
https://abruptearthchanges.com/2018/...d-cosmic-rays/

And was surprised by the fact the spotless years take 10 years to affect earth weather mentioned here (again not a scientific paper)
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/05/the...t-irish-frost/

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 16-11-2018 at 02:28.
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16-11-2018, 03:51   #696
M.T. Cranium
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It has to be kept in mind that the long-term solar downturns have a large impact on temperatures over decades but trying to use them to pinpoint year to year differences is not any sort of guarantee, there's no particular reason why 2018-19 should be the grand occasion for cold rather than last winter or next winter.

The Dalton minimum lasted from about the mid-1790s to the mid-1830s. During that time (and well into the 1840s) there were numerous cold winters but between them some average or even mildish ones.

Even the absolutely spotless Maunder (roughly 1670 to 1710) had the occasional mild winter.

The averages for 30-year periods in the Dalton and Maunder were 2 degrees lower than what was considered normal half a century ago before the AGW further rise took place. But the range remained about 10 degrees from coldest to warmest, so the variability overlaps the normal range we have now, in those colder periods.

This winter is full of promise for cold though, the Atlantic is already dying a slow death and it's not even winter yet.
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16-11-2018, 06:25   #697
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Interesting stuff. We have had the Maunder and Dalton minimum. If this is the start of a new minimum will it have a name?
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16-11-2018, 06:47   #698
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I think some are referring to it as the Gleissberg minimum or some similar name, after the researcher who first proposed that it might be coming along (or second proposed it, seems to me that I heard about it somewhere back in the early 90s from some guy who knew a guy).

By the way, it's not really "if" but how long at this point, we are already into a fairly pronounced downturn with this last cycle being the weakest since the 1905 maximum, and 2001 not being as strong as most of the seven or eight before it.

There was another minimum in the latter half of the 15th century according to Schove, and it's known as the Sporer minimum.

Before that, the records are less dramatic but two or three weak cycles in a row seems to happen about every century or so.
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16-11-2018, 18:54   #699
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Very good. I thought there were still debating on it. Maybe its affect on climate is what the real debating is about.
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23-11-2018, 13:27   #700
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Back to a spotless sun for the past 3 days.
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23-11-2018, 20:26   #701
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A RARE WAVE IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD

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When a stream of solar wind hits Earth, magnetometers around the Arctic Circle normally go haywire, their needles swinging chaotically as local magnetic fields react to the buffeting of the solar wind. On Nov. 18th, however, something quite different happened. Solar wind hit Earth and produced ... a pure, almost-musical sine wave:




source
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02-12-2018, 06:57   #702
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We have breached the 200 day spotless mark for 2018 - SFU @ 69



Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2018 total: 200 days (60%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Will be very interesting to see just how deep and long this minimum gets...
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06-12-2018, 07:08   #703
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Not sure what criteria/parameters are used for these forecasts but if they prove correct we will be testing the LIA theory very soon...





Meanwhile we have our first spot in 9 days with minor B-class flares - spot number 2729



SFU @ 71

2018 : 203 days blank (60%)
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06-12-2018, 07:44   #704
bazlers
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Not sure what criteria/parameters are used for these forecasts but if they prove correct we will be testing the LIA theory very soon...





Meanwhile we have our first spot in 9 days with minor B-class flares - spot number 2729



SFU @ 71

2018 : 203 days blank (60%)
Sorry Blizzard can you enlighten me what the LIA theory is again please?
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06-12-2018, 08:01   #705
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Sorry Blizzard can you enlighten me what the LIA theory is again please?
The idea that the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA) was caused atleast in part by periods of deep solar minima such as the Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minimums. We don't know that this was definitely the cause of the cold period, it may have been volcanic activity or a slowing of the thermohaline circulation amongst other things. It may also have been a combination of these things.

If we are currently entering a similiar grand solar minimum to those mentioned then atleast we will have a modern day equivalent to observe any drop in temperatures that may or may not occur.

It's looking increasingly likely this minimum will break modern records - the next 6-9 months will be key to see if this is just a normal sharp drop minimum or if we are entering something more prolonged.
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