Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)

km79 · 29-09-2010 10:34pm

so IS IT going to be wet and windy fri/sat?

maquiladora · 29-09-2010 10:46pm

km79 wrote: »

so IS IT going to be wet and windy fri/sat?

It will be very windy and blustery with some heavy rain at times on Thursday night. The rain will clear to showers in western half of the country later in the night. It will continue to be wet at first on Friday in eastern areas but the rain will soon clear and there will be sunny spells and showers, mainly in western areas. The southwesterly winds will be fresh but it will be mild with maximum temperatures around 13 to 16 degrees and the nights will also be mild. Present indications are that Saturday will become cloudier with scattered showers and a moderate southerly breeze.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

The general weather theme for the next several days is wet and windy. The big question now is just how wet/windy it will be later over the weekend and into next week.

maquiladora · 29-09-2010 11:00pm

Heavier rain and slightly higher winds on the 18Z GFS for overnight Thursday / Friday morning.

Edit : Well that secondary low is certainly further NW on this run! :P

delw · 29-09-2010 11:34pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Looking at the big picture, the vast swathe of tropical moisture affecting the US east coast is currently making its way off New Foundland and heading over this way, steered by the deep US trough and large Atlantic anticyclone. From the north, the Icelandic low is advecting Arctic outbreaks southwards towards the same area off New Foundland. This is generating a 180mph westerly jet, which will tap into the tropical moisture and generate some very vigorous and at times explosive cyclones. With the depth and hence path of these cyclones so finely dependent on upper forcing and the exact location of the tropical moisture, which in turn is dependent on what Nicole and Co. do over the next few days, which in turn is not well defined, we can see how the models are having such a problem with pinning down the details for a week from now.

Plus of course we have MT's energy peak to consider, something which the models....and even the forecasters in Exeter....know nothing of!

850hPa Theta-E, 12Z today

cheers Su Campu for laymans explaination,makes sense

TheInquisitor · 30-09-2010 8:45am

To be honest looking at the charts now it seems the low/lows are going to stay way to our west then go and miss us to the north. Damn FI, Damn you to hell!!

pauldry · 30-09-2010 11:36am

Never write off the Atlantic

Theres a lot of secondary mini lows going on that could bring mini storms or gales. if they passed over the right/wrong spot

maquiladora · 30-09-2010 11:47am

Based on the 06Z GFS, around 3am, inland gusts peaking at only 60-70 kmph. Nothing to get too excited about.

Friday afternoon then you can see the center of the low off to our northwest. Gusts at sea up there would be reaching about 110kmph :

Redsunset · 30-09-2010 12:54pm

Well its Sept 30th and this is what this morning GFS says for the small hours.

However NAO is having the heaviest rainfall pass either side of us so maybe this will change.

UKMO agrees with NAO

pauldry · 30-09-2010 1:43pm

Still think theres potential for windy weather here in Sligo. Sea in Strandhill very rough today.

Storm 10 · 30-09-2010 4:13pm

No mention in Met Eireanns latest forecasts for strong winds, where is it gone??

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

roosterman71 · 30-09-2010 4:48pm

Is there any sign of a few fine days in the next couple of weeks?

Su Campu · 30-09-2010 5:40pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

No mention in Met Eireanns latest forecasts for strong winds, where is it gone??

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

The strongest winds forecast in the midday TAFs were around 25 gusting 35-40mph. The new TAFs will be issued in a few minutes

Iancar29 · 30-09-2010 7:33pm

[/QUOTE]

that picture would lool soooo much better wit the low a few 100kms to the SW ...:(

maquiladora · 01-10-2010 11:34am

Nothing too interesting on the 06Z GFS run. Looking a bit stormy around 162 hours but thats a long way off.

eskimocat · 01-10-2010 11:53am

Very calm and bright here this morning, then without warning the heavens opened and it poured down! it got quite windy, did this for about 4-5 mins, it was over so fast and now there is only a slight breeze but the sky has gone a bit grey!

11.8c

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 10:06am

Was woken up twice during the night with two very heavy downpours here in Waterford.

Stinicker · 02-10-2010 10:56am

Extreme thunderstorm activity here in South East Kerry this morning, at least 10+ lightning strikes so far, some of the best lightning here in three or four years.

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 12:30pm

The latest strikes are still in Kerry and now in Waterford too.

Kerry Airport METAR
021020Z 18007KT 9999 VCSHRA SCT018 SCT025CB BKN038 12/11 Q0995

Waterford
021100Z 22021KT 9999 FEW028 SCT035 15/12 Q0998

Looks like a larger area of precip is now in radar range off the southeast coast, so there could be further interesting developments in southeastern and eastern parts later, aswell as through the west midlands as that area moves northeastwards from Kerry.

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 11:27pm

18Z GFS at 120 hours :

Don't worry, Ireland's storm shield keeps it stalled in the Atlantic until it weakens. :rolleyes:

maquiladora · 03-10-2010 2:50pm

Just to update this thread, as MT mentioned in this forecast thread, it will be windy in the West tomorrow from afternoon onwards with gusts of around 70kmph along the coast.

Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)

Comments