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Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

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12357…55

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  • Options
    #122
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Buying Opportunity In Tesla? | Trading Nation | CNBC
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTiw-tnc59A


  • Options
    #123
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Tesla’s solar roof cost calculator validated by Consumer Reports
    http://www.teslarati.com/consumer-reports-validates-teslas-solar-roof-cost-calculator/

    But:
    It’s important to note that conventional solar panels will almost always come in at a lower total installed cost, a faster “breakeven point” and ultimately generate more value for the homeowner over their useful life than a home with a Tesla Solar Roof. On the other hand, the new roof tiles do come with a very impressive warranty that adds value beyond just their solar energy production value.

    It'll be interesting to see if this works out for Tesla. At least the solar tiles look better than traditional panels, which may make them more popular. I think they will do well in California initially. Over time production costs will probably come down and make them more competitive elsewhere as well.


  • Options
    #124
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday is scheduled to break ground at a 500 million-euro ($543 million) plant to assemble lithium-ion energy-storage units for Daimler AG, which produces Mercedes-Benz and Maybach luxury cars.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-22/move-over-tesla-europe-s-building-its-own-battery-gigafactories


  • Options
    #125
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    Tesla solar panel orders have exceeded expectations and sold out well into 2018

    https://electrek.co/2017/05/25/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-sold-out-2018/amp/


  • Options
    #126
    Mr_Roger_Bongos
    Registered Users Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭Mr_Roger_Bongos


    Tesla is now valued at more than 56 billion dollars.

    As many have commented, this valuation is not based in the operating realities today but on an expectation of future value.

    Tesla is a car/battery manufacturer. As the electric car industry and marketplace matures, they'll have plenty of competition from experienced car manufacturers.

    Even if they're wildly successful, people want to be individual and even with
    different models, my opinion is that they won't dominate the electric car or battery market.

    I want to short this share based on the above, but as with everything in life - Timing is crucial.


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  • Options
    #127
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,070 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »
    Tesla is a car/battery manufacturer.

    They have the home solar stuff as well.
    And they are also producing batteries for electricity grid operators. Large scale commercial.

    I wouldn't characterise them as solely a car company even though thats what they are primarily known for.

    Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »
    Even if they're wildly successful, people want to be individual and even with
    different models, my opinion is that they won't dominate the electric car or battery market.

    They won't dominate the car market. They won't have the scale to do so.

    They might dominate the battery market though as they have heavily invested in that... more so than the other manufacturers who could find themselves out in the cold when they can't source batteries.

    Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »
    I want to short this share based on the above, but as with everything in life - Timing is crucial.

    Even Musk admits the share price is over-valued so your timing will be critical. I'd say too critical to gamble anything major on it.


  • Options
    #128
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.

    If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.


  • Options
    #129
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Sabre Man wrote: »
    I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.
    The Model 3 will in no way launch on time; they only got the machinery a month ago and that's delivery, not installed, fine tuned and actually working machines which usually take 6 months to tune in. The Model 3 will at best produce test models for the staff (because hey surprise, the model 3 has not even done the basic road testing yet). If they get 10k cars out this year I'll be surprised and those will be the normal shoddy quality (for example some model S cars still to this year are delivered with the roof window being slightly higher than the car causing a gap making a noise and this is after the other mechanical fiascos to date). The worst part will be that Tesla will have to actually ask people if they now want the car (which has another $7.5k for the "autonomous" driving system which is worse than what they had previously before the Israel company banned them from using their equipment) and when they start saying no (the resale value many hoped from a reservation simply not being there and a BMW 3 series electrical costs the same as a model 3 while having a whole different quality & equipment standard) they will need to start repaying money on their free loan. The problem being they are still losing billions a year and are not making a profit on the model 3 either....
    If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.
    Not going to happen for so many reasons but to get you started go with the below scenario and explain how you'd pull it off in court:

    Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

    This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).


  • Options
    #130
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Nody wrote: »
    Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

    This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).
    Not really, self driving cars are inevitable, these issues will be sorted out fairly quickly. In a no-win situation like that the car will probably just decide to brake to the best of its ability and trust the (massive) crumple zones and airbags and various other features that make them the safest cars ever built to protect the passengers.

    If anything does go wrong it will be analysed fully, a solution developed and it will be applied to all cars on the road and again and again the fatality and injury levels will be driven down to a tinier and tinier fraction of the levels seen in human operated cars. It will just be impossible to ignore, the day is coming very soon where the ordinary person wont be able to afford the insurance required to drive a manual car on public roads, if they can even find a company still offering it.


  • Options
    #131
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Tesla got the machinery for making Model 3 in February.

    Tesla confirms retooling of factory for Model 3 this month, will ‘pause’ Model S/X production for a week
    https://electrek.co/2017/02/08/tesla-model-3-fremont-factory-production-shutdown/

    Model 3s have been spotted out and about for almost two months.
    https://electrek.co/2017/04/04/tesla-model-3-spotted-picture/

    Autopilot 2.0 is almost on par with version 1, which was supplied by Mobileye. It will soon be better and new cars have more cameras and sensors.

    Self driving from coast to coast is actually not that hard as it's mostly motorways.

    EDIT: They are currently building Model 3 batteries by hand so the battery production line isn't complete yet.


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  • Options
    #132
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    Nody wrote: »
    Sabre Man wrote: »
    I think shorting Tesla now is very risky. I believe Model 3 will launch on time and be quite popular despite the rather bland interior due to a fanatical fan base. Tesla will also unveil a truck in September and the solar roof appears to be doing well with regards to preorders.
    The Model 3 will in no way launch on time; they only got the machinery a month ago and that's delivery, not installed, fine tuned and actually working machines which usually take 6 months to tune in. The Model 3 will at best produce test models for the staff (because hey surprise, the model 3 has not even done the basic road testing yet). If they get 10k cars out this year I'll be surprised and those will be the normal shoddy quality (for example some model S cars still to this year are delivered with the roof window being slightly higher than the car causing a gap making a noise and this is after the other mechanical fiascos to date). The worst part will be that Tesla will have to actually ask people if they now want the car (which has another $7.5k for the "autonomous" driving system which is worse than what they had previously before the Israel company banned them from using their equipment) and when they start saying no (the resale value many hoped from a reservation simply not being there and a BMW 3 series electrical costs the same as a model 3 while having a whole different quality & equipment standard) they will need to start repaying money on their free loan. The problem being they are still losing billions a year and are not making a profit on the model 3 either....
    If Tesla manages to pull off self driving from coast to coast by the end of the year, the shares will go even higher.
    Not going to happen for so many reasons but to get you started go with the below scenario and explain how you'd pull it off in court:

    Your car sees a block ahead and can't break in time to stop and need to evade. Evade left and you kill the driver (cliff drop); evade right and you drive over pedestrians. Which way is the car to evade and how do you defend it morally in court when sued by either A or B for the death? The answer is millions in paid litigation and penalties and forced to stop your autonomous cars from driving.

    This will face every single fully autonomous car out there and short of country wide legislation for every scenario writing them free it's not going to be here any time soon on public roads on a large scale (this is beyond the fact of the need to apply for the right to drive on a county by county basis etc. as well).
    So many wrongs in one post. Good work


  • Options
    #133
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Is Tesla just going to hit an all time high every day? How high can it go? Even Musk says the SP doesn't make sense.


  • Options
    #134
    Steppin Out
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 40 ✭Steppin Out


    Thargor wrote: »
    the day is coming very soon where the ordinary person wont be able to afford the insurance required to drive a manual car on public roads, if they can even find a company still offering it.
    What? then I'll start that company and I'll have the monopoly! I'll make a fortune!

    People don't want forced to be brainless fools driven around without dignity. That'd go hand in hand with yet higher alzeihmer's rates.


  • Options
    #135
    Steppin Out
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 40 ✭Steppin Out


    b4bmm wrote: »
    Peak oil in the next 5 years if this prediction is right. Makes a lot of sense.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/no-one-will-own-a-car-in-the-future-2017-5?r=US&IR=T
    I remember hearing some very similar things in the 00s. I even remember the title of a 2004 national geographic being about how all the oil would be gone by... well probably now!


  • Options
    #136
    Sabre Man
    Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Sabre Man


    Tesla Model X officially becomes highest safety rated SUV (by significant margin) with 5-star rating in every safety category

    https://electrek.co/2017/06/13/tesla-model-x-5-star-safety-rating-nhtsa/


  • Options
    #137
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,375 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    You cannot make up with Musk will say next. Apparently now he's going to create his own music service. Apparently Pandora, Spotify and everyone else has it all wrong.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-music-streaming-service-report-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    In the real world, the president on the autopilot team has resigned after just 6 months in the job and has been replaced with a 30 year old academic with no business experience.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-chris-lattner-apple-tesla-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    The whole thing is crazy, he just says whatever he wants and the market will lap it up, driving the stock price to ridiculous highs. At what point does he become accountable for all he promises he's made?


  • Options
    #138
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,070 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    You cannot make up with Musk will say next. Apparently now he's going to create his own music service. Apparently Pandora, Spotify and everyone else has it all wrong.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-music-streaming-service-report-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    In the real world, the president on the autopilot team has resigned after just 6 months in the job and has been replaced with a 30 year old academic with no business experience.

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-chris-lattner-apple-tesla-2017-6?r=US&IR=T

    The whole thing is crazy, he just says whatever he wants and the market will lap it up, driving the stock price to ridiculous highs. At what point does he become accountable for all he promises he's made?

    I wouldn't read into it too much. He's similar to Michael O'Leary in that he throws out some wild ideas (Tunnel Boring, Mars colonisation etc) to grab headlines. Its cheap marketing is all.

    Tesla will rise or fall on the success of Model 3. Thats pretty much all you need to keep your eyes on. The rest is window dressing, imo.

    You have to give it to Musk though, he has delivered on the big ticket items so far.... Roadster, Model S & X and Space X!!.... all big, difficult projects. He aint no fool.


  • Options
    #139
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    Can you tell me what he has said that he hasn't done? Disclaimer; no idea about his mars views and find them far fetched but apart from that I talking about.

    BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

    He has just reportedly signed a deal in shanghai to build a gigafactory/manufacturing plant, not official yet and he will announce more of these over the next 6 months. He has had a few trips to Australia recently also so that might be another location along with somewhere in Europe.

    He has basically followed through on everything he has said so far. His powerwall 2 are about 3 month waiting list for sale in Australia. The solar roof is backlogged in usa. The Model 3 has 400,000 pre orders. The autonomous driving, going off videos on YouTube seem to be advancing well and passing key regulations in US. Battery costs are dropping rapidly for big storage projects Etc etc etc.

    I do agree with the last poster though, The Model 3 rollout is a biggie. They are being super smart about it though. First models off the line will go to employees who won't cause too much dramas if there is issues with the car. Next are to current owners in California and then after that to new purchasers in California so if there is a major issue and a callback needs to happen it can be sorted out relatively quickly before sales start to be made abroad. I don't think any car will be delivered outside Cali in 2017.

    Tesla expect 100,000 Model 3 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018. A reporter visited the Fremont factory and estimated that they would sell approx 80,000 in 2017 and was sceptical of the 400k figure for 2018. So if they can get at least 300-350k over 2017/2018 I think it will be a win. I hope they reach 500k but I think that's overly ambitious.

    Regarding the thread title.
    Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.


  • Options
    #140
    KCross
    Registered Users Posts: 12,070 ✭✭✭✭KCross


    b4bmm wrote: »
    BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

    Correct me if Im wrong but the hyper loop and the boring company are different projects. The boring thing is where he is going to bore under cities and you drive your car onto a pod and it takes you to your destination.... not trialled at all yet... just a mad idea in his head but he does actually have a few people looking at it and seeing whats possible. He describes it himself as just a hobby but who knows where it will lead to.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5V_VzRrSBI


  • Options
    #141
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    You could be right.
    I thought they were the same thing.
    I was talking about the boring of the tunnels. They are trialling it at the space x factory but haven't started yet. Supposedly there was a big drill spooted onsite there recently though.

    Also they are revealing the tesla electric truck in September.


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  • Options
    #142
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    b4bmm wrote: »
    Regarding the thread title.
    Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.
    Thats a very interesting looking company with this project and I was thinking about getting some lithium exposure:

    https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Pilgangoora-go-ahead-imminent-after-new-A-80m-cap-raise

    Do you currently hold? Im tempted to take a punt now, company fundamentals not the best shape though but at least this looks funded.


  • Options
    #143
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    Yes I hold.
    Will look to increase my holding.

    Why do you say the fundamentals are not the best? I can't think of a company with better fundamentals going forward TBH.


  • Options
    #144
    FernandoTorres
    Registered Users Posts: 647 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.


  • Options
    #145
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    All you say is correct.
    I'll add that the funding was done and completed - bond- and you can be sure the due diligence was carried out by these folks before handing over the cash.

    Forst phase is to have a 2Mtpa plant but given the structure of the current funding, interest only repayments for first three years, it highly likely once phase one is up and running, meaning no major dramas with commission, then the plant size will be doubled with construction starting towards end of next year and (don't quote me on this) a modest capex of $80m to double plant size which will be funded from free cash flow.

    If demand is high, which all my research says it will be over the next 10 years, they can increase plant size to 8Mtpa given the size of the resource.

    I fully expect PLS to be one of the global leaders in lithium mining over the next 2-4 years.


  • Options
    #146
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,375 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    b4bmm wrote: »
    Can you tell me what he has said that he hasn't done? Disclaimer; no idea about his mars views and find them far fetched but apart from that I talking about.

    BTW to the previous poster, he has already trialled his hyperloop i.e the boring company and by all accounts it was a success.

    He has just reportedly signed a deal in shanghai to build a gigafactory/manufacturing plant, not official yet and he will announce more of these over the next 6 months. He has had a few trips to Australia recently also so that might be another location along with somewhere in Europe.

    He has basically followed through on everything he has said so far. His powerwall 2 are about 3 month waiting list for sale in Australia. The solar roof is backlogged in usa. The Model 3 has 400,000 pre orders. The autonomous driving, going off videos on YouTube seem to be advancing well and passing key regulations in US. Battery costs are dropping rapidly for big storage projects Etc etc etc.

    I do agree with the last poster though, The Model 3 rollout is a biggie. They are being super smart about it though. First models off the line will go to employees who won't cause too much dramas if there is issues with the car. Next are to current owners in California and then after that to new purchasers in California so if there is a major issue and a callback needs to happen it can be sorted out relatively quickly before sales start to be made abroad. I don't think any car will be delivered outside Cali in 2017.

    Tesla expect 100,000 Model 3 in 2017 and 400,000 in 2018. A reporter visited the Fremont factory and estimated that they would sell approx 80,000 in 2017 and was sceptical of the 400k figure for 2018. So if they can get at least 300-350k over 2017/2018 I think it will be a win. I hope they reach 500k but I think that's overly ambitious.

    Regarding the thread title.
    Still think PLS on the ASX is a great buy at current levels and now fully funded for construction of project. Raised $USD 100m last couple of weeks along with ~$80m AUD. offtakes with China's biggest lithium player in Gangfeng and Likely to at least double plant size next year once the initial plant has been constructed and is providing cashflow if the demand for product is there, which is highly likely it will be. Other lithium players have had production setbacks not being able to reach expected production due to complicated brine production methods not working out as planned. Australian players leading the way globally. On top of that a processing plant is being built in Perth and due to demand they have already given the green light to double its size from 24,000 T of lithium hydroxide to 48,000 T per annum. Demand is really ramping up.
    Uhh, what about the SolarCity factory that was supposed to have been producing last year?

    http://buffalonews.com/2017/06/23/750-million-question-solar-panel-jobs/


  • Options
    #147
    b4bmm
    Registered Users Posts: 335 ✭✭b4bmm


    Timelines blow out in all businesses.
    PLS is a perfect example of that.
    But they are getting it done both of them.
    Show me anybody else, at least in the western world who is changing things, I admire that. Sure he may or may not get filthy rich but he is making a difference for the better IMO.

    Anything to take a chunk of profits off the corrupt oil/gas baron war mongers is good thing if you ask me. The most corrupt industry on the planet.


  • Options
    #148
    Doodee
    Registered Users Posts: 6,419 ✭✭✭Doodee


    FernandoTorres wrote: »
    I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.

    What broker are you using for ASX trades?


  • Options
    #149
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,865 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    b4bmm wrote: »
    Yes I hold.
    Will look to increase my holding.

    Why do you say the fundamentals are not the best? I can't think of a company with better fundamentals going forward TBH.
    Yeah Im an idiot sorry I looked at one of those bot sites that analyse shares but its not reporting ASX stuff properly.


  • Options
    #150
    FernandoTorres
    Registered Users Posts: 647 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    Doodee wrote: »
    FernandoTorres wrote: »
    I think PLS is a bargain at current prices. The lithium co's have fallen out of fashion recently due to lack of major announcements but in the background pretty much everything you read points to supply shortages for the next 4 or 5 years. PLS is fully funded, has deals to supply major producers and even the very conservative estimates point to a huge payoff. It was trading at 80c a while back before they had any funding or offtake agreements. There are plenty of pretenders in the lithium industry and a lot of them will come to nothing but I really think PLS is the real deal. I think most companies would rather deal with an Aussie company than volatile countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Congo etc. Obviously there are no certainties in the mining game though.

    What broker are you using for ASX trades?
    I actually live in Melbourne so use an online broker here CMC. Pretty sure you can do it through Degiro at home though.


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  • Options
    #151
    Roonbox
    Registered Users Posts: 498 ✭✭Roonbox


    I read an interesting fact on Twitter today.
    GM's current market cap equates to $7000 per car sold, while Tesla's market cap equates to $800,000 per car sold!!!

    Just thought I'd throw that in here :)


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