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14-01-2010, 06:41   #811
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 14 January, 2010
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A rather weak low is moving across the southern Bay of Biscay into southwest France and throwing off some mid-level moisture that is being swept into weak waves near south coast Ireland and southeast England. These will continue northeast dropping very light rain or melting snow, but will not amount to much, while a more organized area of rain develops in central France from the lows, turning to mountain snow.

Meanwhile, a stronger low is forming up north of the Azores, and will ride a rapidly strengthening jet stream northwards, bringing a surge of mild, moist air towards Ireland on Friday morning.

Forecasts:
-------------

TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals possible, and scattered light outbreaks of rain or melting snow, in light winds becoming SSW 10-20 mph later this afternoon. Highs will be about 5-7 C for most. Fog will continue to be found over melting snow packs in many parts of Ireland but especially the inland northwest, parts of the Midlands, and over higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin. Thawing will be quite gradual today but the early stages of flooding may be encountered in one or two places.

TONIGHT will become foggy and rather windy with any early frost likely to dissipate around midnight. Temperatures will then rise towards 5 C in the south and 3 C in the north. Winds will become SSE 20-40 mph, and rain may be intermittent but could turn heavy in a few spots.

FRIDAY will become milder still but with widespread heavy rain and melting snow, many areas will see dense fog, as well as strong south winds 30-50 mph, temperatures steady in the 8-10 C range over lower ground, 4-7 C higher up. Winds could be very gusty in Kerry and Cork (60 mph at times). Snow will melt steadily and there is likely to be some flooding, getting worse by Friday night as higher level snow melt reaches lower elevations.

FRIDAY NIGHT will continue windy and very mild, near 8 C, with further rainfalls bringing totals to 30-50 mms. There may be some thunder. Flooding could become severe in some parts of Ireland near higher terrain, and there is a hazard of mudslides and possibly a few highland snow slides or minor avalanches.

SATURDAY should see improving weather but the flooding will continue. Skies should clear gradually from west to east with diminishing SW winds turning more to the W by late in the day, as temperatures stabilize near 7 C, falling to 2 C by evening. A secondary line of showers with hail may develop in Connacht by afternoon, with strong wind gusts.

Not all of the highland snow will melt; what's left by the weekend may seem inviting for a drive or hike if the weather improves, but I would caution anyone venturing up high that snow may be very unstable, and there could be snowslides and mudslides or flash floods in various locations.

SUNDAY-MONDAY should bring a rather cool, sleety or drizzly period again as fronts die out while a slow seep of colder air from the North Sea pushes towards a moderate SE flow continuing to draw on 5-7 C air with its origin in France. Winds will be SE 20-35 mph for much of this period Sunday and Monday will at least be the best days in a while to get around with much of the lowland ice and snow gone, as long as mud, debris or floods don't block your path. There may be another interval of rain later Monday into Tuesday morning. Heavy showers may develop at times Tuesday with gusty S to SW winds in western districts colliding with the SE flow continuing further east.

TUESDAY night or WEDNESDAY will see a colder spell returning, with possibility of east coast snow and temperatures near freezing. I am going to leave these details partly to other threads today, and partly to later forecasts, because I want to keep the focus on this high impact Friday-weekend event. There is some chance that this may sweep on by Ireland with only a brief impact. In the longer term, plan around a possible warmer spell of weather near the end of the month, that could turn very windy by late 30th or 31st. With any sort of luck, this may not be overly wet, just windy and showery.

Today (Wed) has been yet another very mild, drizzly day here with another near-record high of 13 C.

Watch for updates all over the forum, as I may be turning in soon ... sleep deficit after the big weather days.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 14-01-2010 at 07:07.
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14-01-2010, 10:07   #812
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UPDATE _ Thursday, 10 a.m.
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Amending the forecast today to mention late afternoon and evening brief period of heavy showers in western counties with a rising south wind reaching 20-40 mph, could be briefly stronger, an energy peak out ahead of the main warm front which will arrive on schedule as per 06z guidance later tonight. These showers could contain hail, temperature during them likely to be 5-6 C, so heavy snow could develop over hills in Mayo and Donegal for a short time. This feature is only slightly visible on satellite imagery well to the south south-west of Valentia. Should track offshore or parallel to Clare coast and cross Galway-Mayo-Donegal about 4 to 7 p.m. May not have any effect on weather further east.
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14-01-2010, 13:04   #813
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Btw, if you want to come to Ireland sooner, be assured there will be a mulitude of friends over here who will be more than glad to show you some Irish hospitality in gratitude for your excellent contributions here.
+1 from Mid-Kerry. I'll provide the golf (Dooks GC) if you'll provide the weather ! Do you know Morgan's Creek Golf Club Vancouver? Played in Antrim last year with some of their members, and a mighty time was had by all.
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14-01-2010, 19:48   #814
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Thanks, I do know that golf course but I haven't played it yet (as they probably told you, this area is golf-crazy, there must be a hundred courses within an hour's drive of where I live, and being MTC, I naturally play at the furthest one from my home. I would think I've played maybe ten of those hundred courses at this point, plus two or three over on Vancouver Island where there's probably another hundred -- some of them are very good courses too, they held the Canadian Open in Vancouver a few years ago and the players said they liked the course a lot.)

This idea of a visit to Ireland is definitely on for the time frame 2011 to 2013, and almost sure not to happen in 2010 because we only have a week available and that seems too short a time, although, I made a seven-day visit to the UK (about my sixth return visit over many years) in 2007 and that didn't seem too rushed once I got into it -- the purpose in any case was to connect with aging relatives and meet a couple of weather friends. I hope it works out to be 2011, will have to ask Danno which month to book a flight.

Oh, about this rainstorm, it's still on the way ... update to follow the 18z run about 10:15 possibly.
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14-01-2010, 20:24   #815
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Thanks, I do know that golf course but I haven't played it yet (as they probably told you, this area is golf-crazy, there must be a hundred courses within an hour's drive of where I live, and being MTC, I naturally play at the furthest one from my home. I would think I've played maybe ten of those hundred courses at this point, plus two or three over on Vancouver Island where there's probably another hundred -- some of them are very good courses too, they held the Canadian Open in Vancouver a few years ago and the players said they liked the course a lot.)

This idea of a visit to Ireland is definitely on for the time frame 2011 to 2013, and almost sure not to happen in 2010 because we only have a week available and that seems too short a time, although, I made a seven-day visit to the UK (about my sixth return visit over many years) in 2007 and that didn't seem too rushed once I got into it -- the purpose in any case was to connect with aging relatives and meet a couple of weather friends. I hope it works out to be 2011, will have to ask Danno which month to book a flight.

Oh, about this rainstorm, it's still on the way ... update to follow the 18z run about 10:15 possibly.
met eireann don't seem to be saying too much about this rainstorm on their website...is it going to be bad?
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14-01-2010, 22:30   #816
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UPDATE _ Thursday, 10:20 p.m.
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No change in forecast ... rain will move in late tonight, may be intermittent at first on Friday, then becoming a steady downpour with strong southerly winds to 40-50 mph, dense fog over snow pack or near melting snow, temperatures near south coast 10-11 C but varying further north based on snow cover mostly, 5-7 C a common range, 8-10 C Dublin.

With the snow reported in other threads including the photo thread, I have calculated that with 25 mms of rain, the equivalent of 60 mms of rain is going to fall in some areas receiving runoff from melting snow. Flood risk appears high anywhere draining higher mountains in particular. I would mention Kerry, Cork, Tipps, Laois, Carlow, Wicklow and Dublin as perhaps the most likely counties to see stream-overflow type flooding, but possibly Galway, Mayo and Donegal should be added. There will be poor drainage from fields and bogs in low-lying or flat areas too, this possibly affecting counties further north and northwest more. There will be urban ponding where excessive runoff fails to drain due to blockages from previous ice, leaves or debris, snowbanks, etc. Underpasses and parking lots should be monitored tonight for any blocked drainage that can be remedied. Streams and rivers could rise very quickly late Friday and into Saturday morning. I hope that this situation comes and goes with only moderate and localized flooding, but I can't rule out the possibility of severe flooding of the sort seen in November in some places.

Not all the snow will melt, there is too much above 200 metres in the east in particular. Snow remaining will become highly waterlogged and it should be remembered down the road that this snow is up there with 3-4 times depth water equivalent.

Mudslides are likely to be a problem around the flanks of all significant hills and mountains.

The upside to all this is the general clearance of ice from roads and pavements which should be completed by Friday night, but remember that remaining ice tomorrow will become worse for traction when there's water on it. Also, there will be widespread dense fog over the remaining melting snow especially by Friday afternoon and evening. Near zero visibilities may develop in central counties.

Book your tee times now.
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15-01-2010, 05:43   #817
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Friday, 15 January, 2010
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TODAY, the first wave of rainfall has already moved through and it may begin to clear up in the south, briefly, with a warm sun (!!) boosting temperatures as high as 10-12 C in parts of Munster. Other regions will stay under cloud and in some cases fog, with temperatures steady near 7 or 8 C. Then another wave of heavier rain will arrive by early afternoon in the west, heading for eastern counties by evening. Winds will pick up steadily today, peaking at southerly 40-55 mph in exposed areas. Melting will be rapid and some flooding will begin to develop. Dense fog may be encountered over or near snow-covered areas and over higher ground.

TONIGHT will be mild at first (near 10 C) with further rainfall in the east, possibly a rumble of thunder, while the western counties see a clearing trend and falling temperatures towards 2-5 C. This cooling trend will only arrive late in the east and cause widespread dense fog. Some places will have near zero visibility at times. Flooding will increase during the night due to the lag time between upland melting and runoff to populated areas. I'm sure the relevant authorities will be providing up to date guidance for your protection, but be aware that this potential will be there as the rainfalls total 30 mms in places and considerable snow melts.

SATURDAY will dawn brighter with some widely scattered showers, turning to a more organized secondary front from west to east during the afternoon. In places where it actually cools down at night, it will warm back up, or else stay, near 8-9 C. Because this weather is hardly different from Friday's, the melt will continue at about the same pace right through Saturday and flood risks could come and go all over the central and eastern counties. Winds will increase again to SW 20-40 mph. Some of the showers could be thundery with hail or high elevation snow.

SUNDAY will be a bit cooler with gusty SW winds and passing showers, with lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C. The flood situation may at least stabilize but it looks like a few days of high water levels before any substantial drying in many areas (away from easily dried out coastal locations). By this point, I envisage the snow line being roughly 400 metres with waterlogged heavy snow still found higher up. Travel into these zones would be dangerous due to the risk of snowslides or mudslides (this applies to the whole weekend) and/or flash floods. Ice would be very unstable with the waterlogged snow on it.

MONDAY is also looking about the same, partly to mostly cloudy, showery and milder than last week but not exceptionally so, temperatures between 2 and 7 C for most places. In these conditions, there will probably still be some icy sections on higher roads, patches of snow at medium elevations and some dense fog in upland areas.

TUESDAY, there may be a slight cooling trend; the widely speculated return to winter seems to be fighting a losing battle on most of the models -- it's cold enough to the east of the North Sea but the Atlantic seems to have woken up now, albeit quite groggy from its long nap. However, Tuesday could turn a bit colder simply because higher pressure building between Atlantic frontal waves might chill the air at night and drop the temperature range to about -2 to +5 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK looks iffy, a colder spell could develop, but if it fails to push in, further near-normal showery episodes can be expected. Past about Friday 22nd there seems to be a signal for milder weather leading to my postulated end of the month windstorms (the end of the month part is no problem, it's the weather part that's the problem).

Our very mild spell took a very slight turn to cooler temperatures in a steady downpour today; the freezing level dropped (on Thursday) back to about 1,200 metres, and down here it was about 8 C. This trend is supposed to continue but not very far until another surge of greater warmth.

Florida is out of the deep freeze now, but a storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico is heading to Georgia for the weekend and it's warm enough that this will be mostly rain in the eastern states with pockets of ice or snow higher up, and severe storms may follow in Florida (strange weather combination, two weeks of icy cold and then severe weather).

Updates when possible.
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15-01-2010, 19:40   #818
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UPDATE _ Friday, 7:40 p.m.
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Windy and wet tonight, despite the fact Shannon radar is not visible (to me anyway) I am seeing satellite imagery signs of heavy showers that could be thundery at times, moving into the southwest this evening and rapidly towards Dublin by midnight to 0200h. These will bring an additional 15-20 mms of rain and any flooding already starting up can only get worse given this new rainfall and the continued very mild temperatures. It may get somewhat colder in the west after midnight, and the strong S to SW winds with this front moving in will then subside to moderate westerly.

The models are all over the place concerning the longer range, but I will focus on this immediate situation for the rest of today.
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16-01-2010, 02:13   #819
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UPDATE _ Friday, 7:40 p.m.
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Windy and wet tonight, despite the fact Shannon radar is not visible (to me anyway) I am seeing satellite imagery signs of heavy showers that could be thundery at times, moving into the southwest this evening and rapidly towards Dublin by midnight to 0200h.
Correct, some very heavy intense showers passing through Galway right now (2:00 am), the Shannon radar is still down and the Dublin radar is not showing any activity around here at the moment.
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16-01-2010, 06:18   #820
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Saturday, 16 January, 2010
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Our flood watch continues -- see the flooding thread for some additional reports and opinions. The combination of temperature, rainfall and probable snow melt suggests that water levels may rise rapidly in many parts of Ireland this morning.

TODAY will bring further rain in the south, 10-15 mms possible, some sunny intervals in central counties west to east, followed there by sharp showers that contain some hail and thunder. Highs today will be 8-10 C and winds SW 20-35 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy and showery with a few heavier showers possible. Some dense fog is possible too. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C. Winds will continue SW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY should be about the same, partly to mostly cloudy with showers, winds backing to S and then SE, highs near 7 C. Overnight readings will be either side of 0 C and there may be some icy roads in a few spots.

WEDNESDAY, there is an outside chance that colder air will make it as far west as eastern Ulster, otherwise it appears likely to continue with near seasonable temperatures and considerable cloud, drizzle or light showers.

Watch for updates ... the flood risk is probably the main story at the moment.
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16-01-2010, 07:06   #821
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Saturday, 16 January, 2010
__________________________

Our flood watch continues -- see the flooding thread for some additional reports and opinions. The combination of temperature, rainfall and probable snow melt suggests that water levels may rise rapidly in many parts of Ireland this morning.

TODAY will bring further rain in the south, 10-15 mms possible, some sunny intervals in central counties west to east, followed there by sharp showers that contain some hail and thunder. Highs today will be 8-10 C and winds SW 20-35 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY will continue partly cloudy and showery with a few heavier showers possible. Some dense fog is possible too. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C. Winds will continue SW 20-35 mph.

MONDAY-TUESDAY should be about the same, partly to mostly cloudy with showers, winds backing to S and then SE, highs near 7 C. Overnight readings will be either side of 0 C and there may be some icy roads in a few spots.

WEDNESDAY, there is an outside chance that colder air will make it as far west as eastern Ulster, otherwise it appears likely to continue with near seasonable temperatures and considerable cloud, drizzle or light showers.

Watch for updates ... the flood risk is probably the main story at the moment.
The rain was pretty much sideways last night when I went to bed.

Going to take a walk down to the liffey soon, we are in a prime area for flooding
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16-01-2010, 12:33   #822
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UPDATE _ Saturday, 1230h
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I am guessing that a lot of the regulars on this forum are out enjoying the nicer weather or looking for signs of rising water levels, melting snow, etc.

Any rain in the south will prove to be quite light as the bulk of the energy is going to miss to the south, perhaps clipping Wexford around 1-2 p.m.

More active lines of showers are rapidly approaching Mayo and Galway and should be providing some gusty and possibly even thundery rain, hail or mountain snow showers later today, watch for winds to gust locally to about 40-50 mph with these. I'm timing their arrival for about 1:30 p.m. in western Mayo.

Otherwise, there's some decent sunny intervals showing up in central Ireland for the afternoon, enjoy.
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16-01-2010, 13:00   #823
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UPDATE _ Saturday, 1230h
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I'm timing their arrival for about 1:30 p.m. in western Mayo.

Otherwise, there's some decent sunny intervals showing up in central Ireland for the afternoon, enjoy.
I will let you know have washing out on the line .
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16-01-2010, 14:30   #824
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I will let you know have washing out on the line .
Raining here now
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16-01-2010, 15:38   #825
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nice afternoon here in Waterford, no flooding that I know of but we were never under a threat for it.
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