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Strong Winds, Heavy Rain Wintry Weather : Sat 2nd to Mon 4th March 2019
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27-02-2019 12:15am#1Worth keeping an eye on how this Depression develops on Saturday. The Models in general have been showing it track up off the NW coast but on latest runs they have been bringing it closer to the coast and showing some strong winds , the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM at this stage showing a swathe of strong winds across much of the country for a number of hours , showing the strongest winds atm in the W.
More than likely warnings will be issued .
Most tellingly is that the ECM 12Z tracks the centre closer to the coast on the latest run with strong winds gusting 100 to 110 kph inland in places .
Will see how this pans out one way or the other.
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The other models getting more in line now. W, NW and N getting the strongest winds , looking like gusts of 110 to 120 kph on exposed coasts at this stage, up to about 100 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 90 more inland
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Center of the depression now much further away to the NW on the latest ECM 12Z keeping the strongest winds offshore. Blustery overland and windy on the coasts for a time but nothing too severe looking at this stage. Other models following suit, ARPEGE similar.
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Storm Freya forecast to track over us on Sunday, looks like the south coast will get strong winds and rain
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Blustery across the country tomorrow and very windy for a time along the W and NW.
All eyes then on to the rapidly deepening Low off the S of Ireland on Sunday. How strong will it get and will it track closer to the coast bringing strong winds inland . The most consistent models would appear to be the ECM, EURO 4 and ARPEGE with Sundays system. As we have seen in the past these rapidly developing Lows can change direction and increase or decrease in speed quite a bit than being modelled. Will see.
Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65 km/h at times, with gusts between 90 and 100km/h. Winds will be strongest along coasts.
Valid: Saturday 02 March 2019 08:00 to Sunday 03 March 2019 03:00
Issued: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00
Updated: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00
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Looking very wet on Sunday and models showing it turning wintry towards evening, probably sleety rain mix. Some big rainfal accumulations showing up now between here and early Monday. Might have to change the Thread Title again !
https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1101511890532995072
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I think it might be worth renaming the thread title as I reckon it could get very wet over the weekend leading to possible warnings and looks like we could get a bit of wintry precipitation Sunday night with a possible freeze in places so could lead to some dangerous driving conditions and possible warnings for Ice into Monday morning. The LP crossing the country on Sunday with the strongest winds off or along the S, SE and E coasts for now could increase and move inland depending on the track and it looks like it could be very wet on Sunday and could turn to sleet or snow later Sunday as the rainbands run into cold air.
A lot going on and a big change to our recent benign conditions so needing monitoring I reckon.
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The exact positioning of the precipitation zone is still open to question but a decent chance of snow fall close to the northern and western flanks.
Here is Hirlam's take but a good bit of variance between the models.
There is certainly a local flood risk as well.0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf2kDge34hI
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