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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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GFS showing the remnants of Humberto, and perhaps more importantly another cyclone after Jerry, hurtling in our direction.
Humberto could have a yellow/orange warning attached for coastal areas if it moves any further north. Currently Wales getting the worst of it, and guidance is coming into the reliable timeframe.
The later storm which hasn't even yet developed is still +300hrs but 3 days of runs now have been alarmingly consistent. still deepening at 20W in the latest iteration, one to watch, even if it may be as reliable as the ol' forecasting stone, for now.
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Jerry has nosedived back to tropical storm now (55 kt) in the NHC's 7 am update, despite being forecast to remain a hurricane force 65-70 kt in their 4 am discussion. Pressure up to 995 hPa. All based on recon data. Just shows that these things have a mind of their own.
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Lorenzo is a bit of an eye opener, a Tropical Storm atm as reported by the NHC who is saying it is in a generally favorable environment for intensification . All of the intensity guidance saying it will become a hurricane by about Weds. Models predicting it to strengthen thereafter. ECM has been fairly consistent in its track over the last few runs if steering it a bit further E on the latest run I think. The end of the run , 10 days away, way way out there in terms of reliability looks interesting to say the least .
Ridge to the E of the Atlantic steering Lorenzo up to our latitudes and remnants nudged in towards us by LP systems coming out of Canada on a very fast jet, or being absorbed into a new system ?
Makes for interesting model watching.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
NHC
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH0 -
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The eastern Atlantic seems the best area for activity now, with shear affecting the two systems in the west (Jerry and Karen). This period is the climatological max for Cabo Verde hurricanes, so, after a very sluggish start, this season has pulled its socks up in the past month.
Latest Lorenzo GEFS tracks. It should reach CAT 3 before reaching the Azores but would most likely have weakened by the time it gets there.
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Meanwhile TC Hikaa is about to make landfall in Oman. Currently 85 kts but slight weakening should occur before landfall. The JTWC call it a "midget" cyclone. Surely that's politically incorrect and the poor cyclone could choose to be offended!REMARKS: 240300Z
POSITION NEAR 20.1N 60.3E. 24SEP19.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (HIKAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 14 NM OBLONG EYE, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) BY PGTW AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T4.8 (85 KTS) BY CIMSS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KTS.
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Lorenzo is going to be interesting to watch, except for all the comparisons to Ophelia already!
GFS last two OP runs have it dropping South of us:
If two storms of this nature track over us in as many years, that is no longer anomalous and something is up.
We're in for an interesting couple of weeks, but arguably, an extremely interesting and less predictable climate from this point forward.0 -
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo progressing showing bands rotating within the circulation , NHC saying it has an intensity of 55kts. Not progressing as fast as previously modeled yet still in a favorable environment to intensify into a Hurricane by tomorrow.
NHC
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
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Windy.com has it tracking west of Ireland. All up in the air, didn’t Ophelia change to an eastern direction after veering west?
Nope. Bear in mind these graphics start and end when NHC advisories did, specifically ending very abruptly as soon as it went extratropical despite having major impacts here.
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The GFS, despite its upgrade, has performed terribly this season. On each storm it has been completely wild of the mark in the early stages of the developing systems. The ECM has been king again, so I would be siding with it more for now, backed up by the fact that most other models are showing similar.
There is still a large area of dry air for Lorenzo to get through as it swings a little more northwestwards now. The SHIPS had been jumping at rapid intensification this time yesterday, but it's backed well back down in today's runs. Despite the vis and IR imagery showing some banding, microwave scans show no real organisation of deep convection nor a central core. We'd be needing to see something better than this develop or it may not reach the Cat 3 promise it has been showing. In 5 days it will be getting out over colder seas around 26 N.
Water vapour
Ocean Heat Content
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A big switch in the GFS Op (AVNO), Ensemble mean (AEMN) and Control run (AC00) between 00Z and 06Z runs. A total swing west now, especially the op, which has the track now west of Ireland instead of over France and Germany. As stated, all still model vomit for now.
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NHC Storm Description:
25 Sep 2019 - 15:00 UTC ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.1, -35.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Projected strength increased a bit again.
NHC
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven0 -
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Wind speeds continue to rise, pressure dropping .
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Hurricane LORENZO
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 25, 2019:
Location: 14.3°N 36.3°W
Maximum Winds: 80 kt Gusts: 100 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1176877147580821504?s=20
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Models are struggling.
It veers wildly west in the 18Z GFS as well, but also deepens to 930mb or the equivalent of a Category 4 storm, almost as far north as Iceland while still retaining some tropical features.
That's just not going to happen.
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Models are struggling.
It veers wildly west in the 18Z GFS as well, but also deepens to 930mb or the equivalent of a Category 4 storm, almost as far north as Iceland while still retaining some tropical features.
That's just not going to happen.
It's really only the GFS that's been struggling, varying from Poland to Greenland in the space of 3 runs. The others have been fairly consistent.0 -
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