Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Property Market 2019

24567156

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

    Have 70k in my pocket, I'll get a mortgage.

    I want to look after myself like everyone does.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    Have 70k in my pocket, I'll get a mortgage.

    I want to look after myself like everyone does.

    Congratulations on the deposit that's good saving. But if you're made unemployed you won't be getting a mortgage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    It depends on your position really. If you already have a house, a stable long term job that won't be directly affected by a US recession, then said recession provides many opportunities, primarily in the stock market.

    If you don't have a house and you work for a US multinational in Ireland then yes that's a very different story.

    True. Full disclosure here I work for a large US multinational as does my wife. These companies seem to be banking on the economy continuing to grow though. Facebook, LinkedIn, google, Pfizer, alexion, bms, amgen, zendesk, Amazon all have massive expansion plans under way or nearing completion. They obviously don't see a massive storm on the horizon that some others do.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Pussyhands wrote: »
    I saw prices rose by 12k last year.

    Does anyone know how much this is caused by new builds?

    A new build will obviously mean higher price. With more new builds, means higher price.

    12k?
    I take it you mean national prices rose by 11.5% (Dublin was a more modest 4.8%- unless you were in West Dublin- where they actually fell).

    I don't see why a new build necessarily means higher prices (than second hand sales) though? In general- you are not comparing like with like. A lot of the new builds are far smaller than second hand units in similar locations- and while they may have far better BER ratings etc- people are not willing ascribe a comparable value to these attributes- with property its all location-location-location- everything else is secondary.

    The reason for ongoing price increases- is even now our supply is not in keeping with demand. Even a tin can will rise in price- if there is a scarcity of tins cans. Its simple supply and demand.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    It depends on your position really. If you already have a house, a stable long term job that won't be directly affected by a US recession, then said recession provides many opportunities, primarily in the stock market.

    If you don't have a house and you work for a US multinational in Ireland then yes that's a very different story.

    True. Full disclosure here I work for a large US multinational as does my wife. These companies seem to be banking on the economy continuing to grow though. Facebook, LinkedIn, google, Pfizer, alexion, bms, amgen, zendesk, Amazon all have massive expansion plans under way or nearing completion. They obviously don't see a massive storm on the horizon that some others do.

    Facebook and LinkedIn lol, talk about over priced.Some of their staff would be lucky to have jobs in the next year.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭BBFAN


    smurgen wrote: »
    Facebook and LinkedIn lol, talk about over priced.Some of their staff would be lucky to have jobs in the next year.

    Facebook definitely is going to be one of those stocks that take a major nosedive in 2019.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    BBFAN wrote: »
    smurgen wrote: »
    Facebook and LinkedIn lol, talk about over priced.Some of their staff would be lucky to have jobs in the next year.

    Facebook definitely is going to be one of those stocks that take a major nosedive in 2019.

    Users leaving both platforms in droves and failure to monetise coupled with rising costs. Two lame ducks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Apple be down already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    BBFAN wrote: »
    Facebook definitely is going to be one of those stocks that take a major nosedive in 2019.

    Facebook has already nose dived, it's cheap right now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    smurgen wrote: »
    Facebook and LinkedIn lol, talk about over priced.Some of their staff would be lucky to have jobs in the next year.

    LinkedIn currently owned by Microsoft so safe enough there. Facebook itself is shot agreed, but they own WhatsApp and Instagram, both massive platforms in their own right. Luckily Irish property prices don't really track individual US companies stock prices.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    smurgen wrote: »
    Users leaving both platforms in droves and failure to monetise coupled with rising costs. Two lame ducks.

    A cursory Google indicates that LinkedIn has grown revenues 37% this year. Seems decent growth to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    smurgen wrote: »
    Users leaving both platforms in droves and failure to monetise coupled with rising costs. Two lame ducks.

    I don’t know ... when I see the amount of crap Facebook has done with regards to privacy and abusing their market position and the fact that not only almost every person I know is still on it, but they are also all heavily relying on WhatsApp, with many on Instagram, I am not sure people care that much and will leave.

    Also the network effect is working very well for them. I refused to register on WhatsApp until recently but I eventually felt forced to do so as I was missing out on some things which were only communicated on WhatsApp groups.

    Anyway, a discussion for another topic, but to answer another poster, if Irish property prices don’t track stock prices of US multinationals they are still fairly influenced by the presence of multinationals (at least in Dublin, Cork, and possibly Galway).


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,670 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Bob24 wrote: »
    I don’t know ... when I see the amount of crap Facebook has done with regards to privacy and abusing their market position and the fact that not only almost every person I know is still on it, but they are also all heavily relying on WhatsApp, with many on Instagram, I am not sure people care that much and will leave.

    Your superficial knowledge is fascinating, but you knpow little of the actual workings of the business. your cursory view of the people in you direct circle is charming, but the reality is that facebook is growing massively in growing markets and those markets care little for you're mate in the pub. I think this is a direct example of pub economics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    Your superficial knowledge is fascinating, but you knpow little of the actual workings of the business. your cursory view of the people in you direct circle is charming, but the reality is that facebook is growing massively in growing markets and those markets care little for you're mate in the pub. I think this is a direct example of pub economics.

    Condescending answer which also shows the person who wrote it didn’t actuslly read the post they were replying to.

    I am precisely saying that I think it is unlikely for people to leave en masse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Items such as manufacturing output and stock market trends are leading indicators when trying to track recessions.there is a lag between bad stuff happening in the U.S and the impact here in Ireland.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    On the rental crisis, which is what impacts the vast majority of those under the age of 35 I would say, the IT had a "state of the nation" piece from Ronan Lyons, Trinity professor of economics and author of Daft.ie reports https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/rental-market-dysfunction-set-to-continue-through-2019-1.3735706



    His key points;



    - "For Ronan Lyons, assistant professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft.ie rent reports, the problem is still very much one of a lack of supply." Despite all the bickering and protesting etc., ultimately this is the crux of the problem.



    - "While there has been an uptick in planning permissions, he says it will be 2020 at the earliest before we see any significant relief, in terms of additional supply coming on to the market." 2020 at the earliest before rent looks like it will climb down from its 1620euro average in Dublin. The year of a general election which will be interesting to see how the government will fare.



    - "And where we do see new developments coming on stream, it’s often at the top end of the market....According to Lyons, the reason so many of these investors are pitching their properties at this market is because of the costs of construction...One bright spot for tenants is that he expects these institutional players to seek to bulk up significantly the volume of apartments they let over time. The only way they can realistically capture a larger market share is by offering properties at lower rental rates."



    - The introduction of rent controls in 2016 created a two tier market between tenants already renting and tenants who were new to the market/moving. "Figures from the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) show that rents for existing tenancies rose by about 5.4 per cent in the year to September – but new tenancies rose by almost 50 per cent more than that."



    - On the Airbnb measures "In addition, rules limiting Airbnb lets, other than in people’s main residence, to 90 nights a year, are due to be introduced next June. These could, it is hoped, bring as many as a couple of thousand properties back into the long-term rental sector."


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Wouldn't you think that some of these so called experts would publish some real research into how rent controls have really effected the rental market.

    What are they afraid of?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,670 ✭✭✭Bluefoam


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Condescending answer which also shows the person who wrote it didn’t actuslly read the post they were replying to.

    I am precisely saying that I think it is unlikely for people to leave en masse.

    That really isn't clear from your original post... I've re-read it and your conculsion does not say vaugely that, let alone precisely.

    Anyway, in relation to FB, Google at al, and their impact on Irish property prices... While they reside here, the management of the biusiness related to this island is minor, they are interested in big global swings... Their current concentration is emerging markets and they will keep people on this island busy for many years, iresepected of local recession.


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.


    It also may not even cause the reduction in property prices everyone is hoping and waiting for.
    The input parameters are completely different this time.

    Going into 2008 recession we had a chronic oversupply of property, with banks insanely over-leveraged on mortgages.

    Going into (potential) 2019/2020 recession we have a chronic undersupply of property with much tighter lending restrictions in place for the last 4 years.


    It's not going to play out the same as 2008-2013.


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Wouldn't you think that some of these so called experts would publish some real research into how rent controls have really effected the rental market.

    What are they afraid of?..


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    That really isn't clear from your original post... I've re-read it and your conculsion does not say vaugely that, let alone precisely.

    Here are some exemples of things to read in the post whereby I am indeed saying that:
    Bob24 wrote: »
    not only almost every person I know is still on it, but they are also all heavily relying on WhatsApp, with many on Instagram

    [...]

    I am not sure people care that much and will leave.

    [...]

    the network effect is working very well for them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭tobsey


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The whole point of many posts here is that if we had a mature attitude to the property market we would avoid the worst of the damage caused by recessions. The property market operates in a boom bust cycle by choice and government policy.
    It is quiet simple to avoid these cycles and have a functioning property market

    There is no evidence of the property market operating in a boom bust cycle. The economy as a whole has, but not property. Only once in the history of the state have property prices dropped at any noticable level, and that was 2009-2013. Even during the recession of the 1980s property prices weren't effected.
    Moonjet wrote: »
    It also may not even cause the reduction in property prices everyone is hoping and waiting for.
    The input parameters are completely different this time.

    Going into 2008 recession we had a chronic oversupply of property, with banks insanely over-leveraged on mortgages.

    Going into (potential) 2019/2020 recession we have a chronic undersupply of property with much tighter lending restrictions in place for the last 4 years.


    It's not going to play out the same as 2008-2013.

    This is a very reasonable argument as to why even a recession won't effect property prices as much as last time. People were so heavily indebted, and it didn't even take that many people, that they were forced in to firesales to try get access to cash. People were buying one property, waiting for the equity to be built up due to rising property prices and use that as collateral for the next purchase. It was all a big house of cards that came crashing down. Now there are much stricter lending rules, the value if property could drop at least 10%, maybe 20% before there would be a big concern about negative equity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    Bluefoam wrote: »
    Bob24 wrote: »
    Condescending answer which also shows the person who wrote it didn’t actuslly read the post they were replying to.

    I am precisely saying that I think it is unlikely for people to leave en masse.

    That really isn't clear from your original post... I've re-read it and your conculsion does not say vaugely that, let alone precisely.

    Anyway, in relation to FB, Google at al, and their impact on Irish property prices... While they reside here, the management of the biusiness related to this island is minor, they are interested in big global swings... Their current concentration is emerging markets and they will keep people on this island busy for many years, iresepected of local recession.


    Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    smurgen wrote: »
    Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

    If their wages are cut significantly imagine how the wages in the rest of the country will be effected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    smurgen wrote: »
    Google and fb etc may stay here but in a recession their bargaining power with employees will be alot higher and i can see wages earned being cut dramatically.

    They could also slow down on hiring due to reduced growth on their end.

    But I think the real question is the tax regime. Voices are getting louder and louder in Brussels to harmonise taxation of these companies accross the EU. It might not go anywhere as the EU is a messy beast, but if it does this will have a huge impact on Ireland (some people might like to think tax rates are irrelevant and besides they ireland still is the single greatest country in Europe to operate EMEA headquarters, but it is far from true and while neither the government nor companies can say it publicly - law taxation is one of the main reasons they are here). Again this is pure speculation and not guaranteed to happen, but if we were force to hike-up corporate tax or even just to make sure these companies are paying the headline rate, it would probably impact employement as well as immigration of qualified workers, and in turn property prices.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    Bob24 wrote: »
    They could also slow down on hiring due to reduced growth on their end.

    But I think the real question is the tax regime. Voices are getting louder and louder in Brussels to harmonise taxation of these companies accross the EU. It might not go anywhere as the EU is a messy beast, but if it does this will have a huge impact on Ireland (some people might like to think tax rates are irrelevant and besides they ireland still is the single greatest country in Europe to operate EMEA headquarters, but it is far from true and while neither the government nor companies can say it publicly - law taxation is one of the main reasons they are here).

    Good thing we have a veto on tax issues then isn't it.

    I have absolutely no issue with discussing facts and realistic economic outlooks. But there seems to be a few in here that seem catastrophic economic collapse as inevitable, and that this collapse will somehow result in them personally getting a house for half nothing. The current landscape does not point to that, much as some would wish it. Not specifically saying you Bob btw, just a general observation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Good thing we have a veto on tax issues then isn't it.


    If enough countries (especially large ones like France and Germany) gang-up to change things an Irish veto means nothing.

    Either they will find work arounds to change what is happening in practice without affecting rules that can be vetoed, or they can pressure ireland into the change (for exemple we have made ourselves ultra-reliant on the EU with relations to many pre and post Brexit issues which reduces our capacity to say no on other matters).

    Also, keep in mind that in many European countries voters are asking for this taxation model to change and threatening to vote for anti-EU parties if nothing is done. This has already forced some governments (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia) to act unilateraly and try to change things with national laws. The EU elections are coming and there is a real possibility that many key countries will send a majority of “populist” MEPs to the EU parliament. At some point people in Brussels and some EU capitals could very possibly think that forcing a few changes upon Ireland and of few “minor” countries is better than allowing these parties en masse in the parliament and risking them controlling more national governments.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    Bob24 wrote: »
    If enough countries (especially large ones like France and Germany) gang-up to change things an Irish veto means nothing.

    Either they will find work arounds to change what is appending in the ground without affecting anything that can be vetoed, or they can pressure ireland into the change (for exemple we have mad ourselves ultra-reliant on the EU with relations to many pre and post Brexit issues which reduces our capacity to say no on other matters).

    Also, keep in mind that in many European countries voters are asking for this taxation model to change and threatening to vote for anti-EU parties if nothing is done. This has already forced some governments (UK, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia) to act unilateraly and try to change things with national laws. The EU elections are coming and there is a real possibility that many key countries will send a majority of “populist” MEPs to the EU parliament. At some point people in Brussels and some EU capitals could very possibly think that forcing a few changes upon Ireland and of few “minor” countries is better than allowing these parties en masse in the parliament and risking them countering more national governments.

    They could do alright but that would be the end of the EU as we know it. Ourselves, the Dutch, Hungary and Belgium are all against tax harmonization. If it was forced down our throats the EU as it currently is wouldn't survive. It's either become the federal states of Europe or break up altogether. The effects of either are impossible to predict as it's such a huge departure from where we stand now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    They could do alright but that would be the end of the EU as we know it.

    What I’m arguing though is that we might be close to a situation whereby not doing is would be the end of the EU as we know it as well (with the European Parliament having a majority of euro sceptic MEPs, and national governments in large countries willing to change the status quo a lot more). At some point I believe it could very possibly come to choosing between the lesser evil and even our governement might decide that it is a better move to compromise on taxation matters rather that risking to break a free trade zone which is key to our economy.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    Bob24 wrote: »
    What I’m arguing though is that we might be close to a situation whereby not doing is would be the end of the EU as we know it as well (with the European Parliament having a majority of euro sceptic MEPs, and national governments in large countries willing to change the status quo a lot more). At some point I believe it could very possibly come to choosing between the lesser evil and even our governement might decide that it is a better move to compromise on taxation matters rather that risking to break a free trade zone which is key to our economy.

    It is definitely going to be an issue, and obviously this one will affect property prices in some way if it happens. We may have drifted off topic though here!


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement