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02-01-2020, 20:12   #46
Nika Bolokov
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I think the posters who say there's a variety of markets are correct.

A 2 bed bungalow near the red cow Luas stop in Clondalkin was listed at 239k , sold for 276k.

Houses nearby are also beating their asking prices sometimes considerably.

However the early 90s 3 bed semi d's in Dublin 16 asking near 600k are not selling. Mortgage rules mean people can't go mad anymore.
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02-01-2020, 21:43   #47
Marius34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Conductor View Post
We are building roughly 22k units per annum.
Of this just over 10k units are hitting the open market- the other 12k are being sold to institutional investors of one type or another.
The other 54,000 odd units being sold in the market are the secondhand units.
I was surprised with the numbers, and couldn't find this information myself. But looking at PPR seems like it may be the right figures. I have aggregated data, on number of transactions (separated in New property and Second hand) from PPR. There is no yet full data on PPR for December, and Dwelling completion for 2019 Q4. But based on the Trends, New Dwelling transaction count should be almost identical to last year, at around 11K.

+------+---------+---------+------------+
| Year | New_cnt | Old_cnt | Completion |
+------+---------+---------+------------+
| 2010 | 5,308 | 15,666 | |
| 2011 | 2,950 | 15,463 | 6,994 |
| 2012 | 3,170 | 22,167 | 4,911 |
| 2013 | 3,752 | 26,292 | 4,575 |
| 2014 | 5,412 | 38,183 | 5,518 |
| 2015 | 6,237 | 42,849 | 7,219 |
| 2016 | 6,834 | 42,937 | 9,892 |
| 2017 | 9,340 | 45,517 | 14,368 |
| 2018 | 11,044 | 46,156 | 17,995 |
| 2019 | 10,335 | 44,625 | 21,237* |
+-------+--------+---------+------------+

* - estimated 2019 completion based on the trends.
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02-01-2020, 22:59   #48
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I think this article is slightly exaggerated but sure for anyone interested see below and as mentioned above the market is built of lots of smaller markets while most prices are leveling off some places are still going above asking
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...28319?mode=amp
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03-01-2020, 00:36   #49
accensi0n
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nika Bolokov View Post
However the early 90s 3 bed semi d's in Dublin 16 asking near 600k are not selling. Mortgage rules mean people can't go mad anymore.
3 bed semi d's asking 600k down the road in D14 are selling though, those in OK nick anyway.
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03-01-2020, 11:46   #50
2lazytogetup
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Prices of houses have been dropping alot more without people realising or the statistics properly showing.

This is due to a higher proportion of new houses on the market.

Take Naas for example, where there has been alot of new housing developments.

A 4 bed second house costs 300k on average. So when there were no houses being built, the average was 300k. Now for every brand new house that costs 350k, it drives up the average price of a 4 bed house. Even though the second hand house value hasnt gone up. Its just there is a bigger proportion of new houses. They are more expensive as better insulated and will have alot less maintenance.

So people in ireland were rejoicing that property prices were going up and their house was going up in value. their house wasnt. it was staying at 300k or even dropping. Just a higher proportion of new houses driving up the price.
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03-01-2020, 13:03   #51
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Good houses are still making their asking.

I totally agree though, having looked recently, there is a lot of serious "projects" on the market with high asking prices.

I viewed on in Dundrum that was subsequently reduced by €100k. When I went to see it in person, I could see why, it seriously needed a wrecking ball. Sure, it was a bungalow that had been given a dormer extension but it was so badly done (super narrow/steap stairs, awkward rooms etc) that I couldnt see how you'd fix it without spending a bomb. Its no longer on line and I wonder now if its been sold or withdrawn. The photos made it appear like it just needed redecorating and new kitchen/bathroom, but when I saw it the dimensions of the rooms and the quality of the previous extension were fundamentally flawed. You'd have had to have been mad to buy it at their initial asking price. It was an executor sale, so I don't know if there was greed on behalf of the family or just bad advice from the selling agent.

In contrast, a house on my parents road sold in H2 2019 for full asking. 1920s 3 bed red brick terrace, asking €875k but in very nice condition. The previous owners had done some work (sold due to marriage breakdown) and had obviously done it to a standard that they'd intended to live in themselves for years. Checked the PPR over christmas and it made full asking.

I think it just costs so much to get work done these days - the standards are so high, and builders charge a bomb. Properties with good fundamental characteristics, that have been maintained in an ongoing way by their previous owners etc will still sell quite easily. Delapidated wrecks however will need to be very competitively priced and will probably only appeal to those trading up who have equity, unless the govt were to offer more renovation incentives.
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03-01-2020, 14:52   #52
Dolbhad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SozBbz View Post

I think it just costs so much to get work done these days - the standards are so high, and builders charge a bomb. Properties with good fundamental characteristics, that have been maintained in an ongoing way by their previous owners etc will still sell quite easily. Delapidated wrecks however will need to be very competitively priced and will probably only appeal to those trading up who have equity, unless the govt were to offer more renovation incentives.
I think that’s very accurate. Turn key second houses or those that have been maintained will meet or exceed asking and will have people bidding on them. Those type of houses usually have sellers selling to buy another house. But with restrictions of 20% or equity in property and the lack of a suitable home to buy, they aren’t putting them up for sale. I think Brexit scared people a bit to “see how things go”..

My sister is in a smallish three bed end of terrace house. It’s already been extended as was a two bed but has a massive garden. Bought it when they first married but with three kids it’s now to small for them. They would love to sell and move. Bought it at height of boom so although it’s not in negative equity, they isn’t the equity in the house to cover the 20% deposit. But I say there are a lot of people in that position stuck in the homes they bought it the boom that could be more Suitable for others.

What I’ve seen in Cork last few months was those type of houses weren’t coming on the market. It was a lot of probate and ex rentals in need of work.

Last edited by Dolbhad; 03-01-2020 at 19:27. Reason: Spelling error
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03-01-2020, 16:05   #53
hmmm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SozBbz View Post
I think it just costs so much to get work done these days - the standards are so high, and builders charge a bomb. Properties with good fundamental characteristics, that have been maintained in an ongoing way by their previous owners etc will still sell quite easily. Delapidated wrecks however will need to be very competitively priced and will probably only appeal to those trading up who have equity, unless the govt were to offer more renovation incentives.
Yep - hard to get builders. Hard to get builders you trust. Hard to get tradespeople.

Plus, younger people in general are less DIY-competent these days, and are less confident about taking on a job themselves. They also have less time available in general. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

Added to all that, mortgage rates are very low and quite affordable. Why take on the headache of a fixer upper, when you can just add 20 grand to your budget and go for a better maintained property?

Last edited by hmmm; 03-01-2020 at 16:08.
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03-01-2020, 19:22   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmmm View Post
Yep - hard to get builders. Hard to get builders you trust. Hard to get tradespeople.

Plus, younger people in general are less DIY-competent these days, and are less confident about taking on a job themselves. They also have less time available in general. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

Added to all that, mortgage rates are very low and quite affordable. Why take on the headache of a fixer upper, when you can just add 20 grand to your budget and go for a better maintained property?
I think this is it.

The stress of having to fix up a house means it would need to be considered a real bargain for someone to take it on. I think it's really driven by two things:

1. Builders are so busy these days that you'll be paying good money for any work, if you can even get one.
2. The state of the current rental market means nobody is willing to risk buying a house that they can't really live in while it's being renovated. It's not like finding alternative, temporary housing is easy.
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03-01-2020, 20:21   #55
Mic 1972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelyDanJalapeno View Post
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/br...y-cork/4326164

This place has been for sale for longest time, recently dropped 50k in listed price from 310k down to 260k, it has now peaked my interest a little.

Wondering if any Cork folk have experience of this house or the area?

The picture of the exterior has been photoshopped to death, fake green grass and fake brick work to cover up for something bad, and that's just the outside.
Pictures like that don't sell a house at all. I wouldn't even bother viewing a property whose owner/selling agency went to such extent in faking.
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03-01-2020, 20:40   #56
Mic 1972
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The stats are out, if this is the beginning of a declining trend we are still at the top of the curve

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b...576bc/?s=urban
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03-01-2020, 22:41   #57
riclad
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If house,s are not selling in general ,they are over priced ,
or people may be waiting a year to see what happens ,how badly will brexit effect the irish economy.
will it cause a steep decline in house,s prices.
it costs nothing to view a house .
do,nt just go by photo,s .
we have a shortage of builder,s in ireland.
many builders left after 2008.
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03-01-2020, 22:51   #58
SteelyDanJalapeno
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Originally Posted by Mic 1972 View Post
The picture of the exterior has been photoshopped to death, fake green grass and fake brick work to cover up for something bad, and that's just the outside.
Pictures like that don't sell a house at all. I wouldn't even bother viewing a property whose owner/selling agency went to such extent in faking.
Cheers yeah, madness what they did with the grass alright!
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03-01-2020, 23:19   #59
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I bought my home in 2013. If I’d bought it purely as an investment I’d sell in 2020. Not because of Brexit, supply concerns or even global warming. I’d sell because anyone who bought in 2012, 2013 and 2014 received an exemption for Capital Gains if the property was held for 7 years.

In a flat, or even a slowly rising market, I’d be losing money as the extra ordinary tax free gains start attracting Capital Gains.
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04-01-2020, 01:54   #60
Empty_Space
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2lazytogetup View Post
Prices of houses have been dropping alot more without people realising or the statistics properly showing.

This is due to a higher proportion of new houses on the market.

Take Naas for example, where there has been alot of new housing developments.

A 4 bed second house costs 300k on average. So when there were no houses being built, the average was 300k. Now for every brand new house that costs 350k, it drives up the average price of a 4 bed house. Even though the second hand house value hasnt gone up. Its just there is a bigger proportion of new houses. They are more expensive as better insulated and will have alot less maintenance.

So people in ireland were rejoicing that property prices were going up and their house was going up in value. their house wasnt. it was staying at 300k or even dropping. Just a higher proportion of new houses driving up the price.
Interesting take that I haven't heard before. Thanks.

Is there any data to back this up though?,
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