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31-12-2019, 00:05   #1
Bigmac1euro
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Property Market 2020

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/...-38820967.html

Last edited by The_Conductor; 31-12-2019 at 16:27.
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31-12-2019, 13:20   #2
Billythekid19
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What are peoples predictions for property in Dublin in 2020? Increase in prices or stay as they are?
Expecting a massive correction in the market. 10 per cent decrease and a downward curve for the next 3/4 years.
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31-12-2019, 14:24   #3
Zenify
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Expecting a massive correction in the market. 10 per cent decrease and a downward curve for the next 3/4 years.
2.4% down for Dublin in the last quarter according to daft. If that continues you'll see your 10% in one year.
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31-12-2019, 15:55   #4
handlemaster
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2.4% down for Dublin in the last quarter according to daft. If that continues you'll see your 10% in one year.
Will it continue? And why would it ?
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31-12-2019, 15:59   #5
Arthur Daley
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The Irish economy is such a seesaw balanced on the housing market that if you saw 10% drop the momentum would develop into a 30% drop, and the country would be back in recession. It really is that much of a rollercoaster for sentiment.
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31-12-2019, 16:25   #6
The_Conductor
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Property Market 2020

As is customary- I've closed off the 2019 Property Market thread- and am opening the 2020 thread.

Have fun folk!
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31-12-2019, 16:52   #7
Zenify
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Will it continue?
Nobody knows if it will continue. Anyone going to viewings and bidding over the last while saw this coming way before the official stats showed it.

I haven't seen any uptake in the market recently which will be shown in the results of the next quarter report.

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And why would it ?
Well if we knew exactly why they have fallen, we could ask if anything has changed to stop it? People may say lending rules or extra supply or Brexit have cooled the market. Have any of them changed to stop the current trend? There was an article about builders reducing supply as the demand drops but there are some major developments starting to come on stream over 2020. Cherrywood being one that is beside me with a few thousand properties. It will go a long way to house people in the area and anyone working near the luas.
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31-12-2019, 16:53   #8
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I was reading an article in work in a news paper article I think it was the indo before Christmas anyways Ulster bank was quoted in it saying that official statics realised don't match up with there figures they have
and don't see any drop in Price's in housing in Dublin and Ireland,only a slight drop in commercial building prices.
Article says they even see a increase in the first quarter of 2020.
Who knows what will happen.
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31-12-2019, 16:59   #9
Blue Badger
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As someone hoping to be in a position to purchase by mid-2020 (currently looking at properties within commuting distance of Dublin and am living like a student again) I absolutely hope they do come down!

Personally... I'm expecting stagnation for much of 2020 within Dublin. Who knows with Brexit but tbh I can't see them reaching a trade agreement by end of 2020.

It's nice to dream that there will be a fall though
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31-12-2019, 17:25   #10
handlemaster
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With Brexit wrapped up end of jan and the main negotiations starting after .. would be interesting to see where the market goes
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31-12-2019, 19:26   #11
hmmm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZX7R View Post
Ulster bank was quoted in it saying that official statics realised don't match up with there figures they have
and don't see any drop in Price's in housing in Dublin and Ireland,only a slight drop in commercial building prices.
Article says they even see a increase in the first quarter of 2020.
Who knows what will happen.
The property market is a whole series of individual little markets. Statistics are useful, but they're a bit blunt.

We're certainly seeing a drop in the selling prices of very expensive houses, which is having a disproportionate impact on some statistics I think.

The rest of the market looks largely stable, and so much seems to depend on the condition of the houses - very few people want a "fixer-upper". There was certainly a drop of a few percent across most property in Q4 2018/Q1 2019, but there was a slight increase in prices from the middle of the year in certain parts of the market. There are still a lot of people looking for mid-tier housing, although demand has shifted slightly away from the 3/4 bed semi-D in commuter-ville.

Builders will stop building new houses if property prices fall, and supply will fall in the new-build market.

Last edited by hmmm; 31-12-2019 at 19:30.
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31-12-2019, 20:14   #12
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The property market may be a convoluted series of little markets- and volume sales in some of those segments may have an outsized effect on the overall market statistics- as seems to be the case.

The fact of the matter is- we're hitting overall property transactions of 76-78k units per annum- of which only 10k units are new units hitting the open market (the other 12.5k of new units are being bought up by institutional landlords of one ilk or another).

The 10k units are not particularly volatile in price- the 55k second hand sales- are where the volatility is happening.

Margins for new builds are currently in the region of 14-15%- however, this is falling as non-labour costs are increasing faster than the capacity of the sector to absorb those costs.

I'd love to see a breakdown of what the secondhand sales are- where they are, whether its people trading up and down or executor sales etc.

The 500k+ market has been incredibly soft for a few years now- however, there hasn't been an appreciable volume of high value units such that it would have a disproportionate effect on the market- perhaps that has now changed?

The other thing that a lot of people are noting in the forum- is the exceptionally poor quality of a lot of the secondhand stock that is coming onto the market. Once upon a time people were investing time, money and effort in trying to showcase secondhand units before selling them- this no longer seems to be the case- regardless of what you spend on a unit- you'll not get it back in an increased selling price- so its simply throwing money down the gutter to do them up.

One way or the other- the bigger changes will be in the secondhand market- because that is where the volume sales are happening- and the biggest change in this sector- is people abandoning the age old practice of doing up houses before selling them............

Either way- don't see any massive changes- gentle falls are already radiating out from the greater Dublin area- they haven't hit some of the regional markets (yet) but probably will make their presence felt more and more as the year progresses.

Some regulatory or tax changes- could vastly increase the supply of new units on the market- if this comes to pass- potentially frightening the institutional investors- there could be massive changes in the market.
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31-12-2019, 22:00   #13
riclad
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i Think brexit will have an effect on the property market, more than any other factor
the irish economy does not rely on the property market,
and we have not seen reckless lending by the banks since 2009.
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01-01-2020, 02:50   #14
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New years resolution is to find accomodation.
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01-01-2020, 03:04   #15
JamesMason
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Originally Posted by The_Conductor View Post
Some regulatory or tax changes- could vastly increase the supply of new units on the market- if this comes to pass- potentially frightening the institutional investors- there could be massive changes in the market.
Such as this, for example?

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stoc...3155?ampMode=1
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