The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

New Little Ice Age
Instead of Global Warming?

by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt

Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity
Klammerfelsweg 5, 93449 Waldmuenchen, Germany

Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

Energetic solar eruptions do not accumulate around the sunspot maximum. In most cycles they shun the maximum phase and can even occur close to a sunspot minimum

Predictions based on cycles in the sun's motion turned out to be correct. My long-range forecasts of precisely defined classes of energetic X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms, covering the period 1979 – 1985, reached an overall hit rate of 90 percent though such events show a very irregular distribution. These forecasts were checked by the Space Environment Center, Boulder, and the astronomers Gleissberg, Wöhl and Pfleiderer (Landscheidt, 1986; Landscheidt and Wöhl, 1986). Accumulations of strong geomagnetic storms around 1982 and 1990 were also correctly forecast several years before the events. I predicted, too, in 1984 (Landscheidt, 1986, 1987) that the sun's activity would diminish past 1990. Just this happened. Though a panel of experts (Joselyn, 1997) had predicted in 1996 and even two years later that sunspot cycle 23 would have a large amplitude similar to the preceding cycles (highest smoothed monthly sunspot number R = 160), the observed activity was much weaker (R = 120).

My climate forecasts based on solar motion cycles stood the test as well. I correctly forecast the end of the Sahelian drought three years before the event, the last four extrema in global temperature anomalies, the maximum in the Palmer drought index for U.S.A. around 1999, extreme river Po discharges around the beginning of 2001, and the last three El Niños as well as the course of the last La Niña (Landscheidt, 1983-2002). This forecast skill, solely based on cycles of solar activity, is irreconcilable with the IPCC's allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the warming in the latter half of the 20th century.

An even more difficult question is whether future Gleissberg minima will be of the regular type with moderately reduced solar activity as around 1895, of the type of very weak activity like the Dalton minimum around 1810, or of the grand minimum type with nearly extinguished activity like the nadir of the Maunder minimum around 1670, the Spoerer minimum around 1490, the Wolf minimum around 1320, and the Norman minimum around 1010 (Stuiver and Quay, 1981). Fig. 11 offers a heuristic solution. It shows the time series of unsmoothed dT/dt-extrema for the interval 1000 – 2250. A consistent regularity attracts attention. Each time when the amplitude of a negative extremum goes below a low threshold, indicated by a dashed horizontal line, this coincides with a period of exceptionally weak solar activity.

Without exception, the outstanding negative extrema coincide with periods of exceptionally weak solar activity and vice versa. So there are good reasons to expect that the coming Gleissberg minimum around 2030 will be a deep one. As there are three consecutive extrema below the quantitative threshold, there is a high probability that the event will be of the Maunder minimum type.

I do not expect that the effects of man-made greenhouse gases will eliminate the sun's predominance. If these effects were as strong as the IPCC pretends, my diverse climate forecasts, exclusively based on solar activity, would not have had any chance to turn out correct. This all the more so as they cover recent years and decades the warming of which, according to IPCC statements, cannot be explained by natural forcing.

Fiskar wrote: »

Interesting article on colder winters ahead by Professor Lockwood

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2010757/Shivering-Britain-Little-Ice-Age-way.html

quote: His findings, published by the Institute of Physics, (IoP) showed that in the next 50 years there is a one in 10 chance of the sun returning to conditions seen between 1645 and 1715 when the River Thames in London regularly froze over, as did the Baltic Sea.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2010757/Shivering-Britain-Little-Ice-Age-way.html#ixzz1R368APpq

East Africa is in the midst of its worst drought in more than 60 years, with as many as 10 million people at risk.

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I have to say I disagree. The connection between sunspots is far more more complicated than it's output. It's the slowdown of the solar wind resulting from a lack of sunspots which causes changes in the atmosphere.

The monsoon is driven by solar heat radiation, something which actually increases ever so slightly during periods of low solar activity which would aid monsoon rains.

During low solar activity the sun is not cooler or less powerful. Is it merely a drop in magnetic output which has an effect on our atmosphere. This is why I think it has little effect on global temperature, it merely changes climatic patterns.

There are two important findings from SORCE. First, the high accurate TIM (Total Irradiance Monitor) on SORCE reveals a much lower TSI of ~1361 W/m2 as compared to ~1366 W/m2