Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
13-05-2020, 14:50   #31
Artane2002
Registered User
 
Artane2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,406
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bsal View Post
-3.2 Mullingar
I think that's also the minimum temperature recorded in April and 1c higher than March's minimum.
Artane2002 is offline  
Advertisement
15-05-2020, 16:10   #32
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
After two weeks ...

IMT is on 9.9 although only Shannon is above that (at 10.9), and this past week was 9.0 which was 1.9 below normal.

MAX of 23.6 and MIN of -3.2 have been mentioned in recent posts, that -3.2 was duplicated last night too (at Mountdillon).

PRC so far is very slight, has fallen to 25% with only 1% of normal logged among the eleven stations this past week (nine of which were dry).

SUN is at 153% with this past week 159.5% (957/600).

Keep thinking that the rain will begin at some point but several more essentially dry days will mean that only a last week deluge can prevent the necessity for a scoring intervention. The lowest forecast we had was 84% (from Mr Stonewall) and even to get to that would take about twice normal from 20th to end of the month.

So the third week starts with today and runs to next Thursday (21st), here is our range of forecasts (for the bonus question) to create a bit of excitement in what is turning out to be a snoozefest of a weather month if ever there was one ...

FORECASTER(s) _______________Predicted IMT 15-21

200 motels ___________________12.6

Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts __ 12.5

Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall ________12.3

Adam240610, Pauldry __________ 12.1

Bsal, Rikand __________________ 12.0

Tae laidir, Dacogawa, Con sensus _ 11.9

Sunflower3, sryanbruen _________11.8

Artane2002 ___________________11.6

Dasa29, NormaL _______________11.5

waterways, JPmarn ____________ 11.4

M.T. Cranium _________________ 11.3

Joe Public ____________________ 11.1

DOCARCH ____________________10.9

John mac ____________________ 10.5

BLIZZARD7 ___________________10.0

-------------------------------------------------------------

Current forecast seems to favour the higher end of this group, we shall see ...
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(5) thanks from:
16-05-2020, 19:52   #33
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
I will track the developing week three IMT daily here. After the 15th it was 8.1 (8.06). To reach 12.6 now requires an average of 13.7 for the next six days. To reach 10.0 requires 10.3. For the middle range, 11.9 requires 12.5.

My forecast last issued works out to an average of 13 and an outcome of 12.2.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(2) thanks from:
17-05-2020, 09:49   #34
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
Day two of the third week came in at 10.4 C and the average is now close to 9.2 C. It will now require an average for the next five days of 14 C to reach our highest prediction of 12.6 and just 10.3 to reach the lowest forecast of 10.0 while an outcome of 12.0 needs 13.1 to verify.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(4) thanks from:
18-05-2020, 09:44   #35
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
Day three of the riveting week three sub-contest managed 13.0, bringing the running average up to 10.5 C. Now to reach 12.6 will require 14.3 for the next four days (including today), while 12.0 needs about 13.1, forecasts are in that range.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(5) thanks from:
Advertisement
19-05-2020, 10:54   #36
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
Day four report (week three) ... IMT was 13.8, running average now up to 11.3 C. The forecasts including today, tomorrow and Thursday all average daily means around 14-15 C, likely to end up close to our warmest prediction(s).
M.T. Cranium is offline  
20-05-2020, 13:03   #37
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
After five days of steady warming, day five hit 15.9 on the IMT and brought the running average up to 12.2. Today and tomorrow both look to be easily warmer than 14, which in itself would boost the final average to 12.7 so it appears very likely that scoring will proceed from top to bottom of the entries. But I will hold off on scoring until certain of that.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
21-05-2020, 12:30   #38
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
Day six was also warm (14.9 C) and the IMT now stands at 12.7 C. Today can be reliably estimated to come in above that so the average will be higher than any forecasts. I will confirm this inevitable conclusion tomorrow but the points are going to look about like this:

200 motels ___________________12.6 __ 10 pts

Kindred Spirit, mickger844posts __ 12.5 __ 10 pts

Mr Skinner, Mr Stonewall ________12.3 ___ 9 pts

Adam240610, Pauldry __________ 12.1 ___ 8 pts

Bsal, Rikand __________________ 12.0 ___ 7 pts

Tae laidir, Dacogawa, Con sensus _ 11.9 ___ 6 pts

Sunflower3, sryanbruen _________11.8 ___ 5 pts

Artane2002 ___________________11.6 ___ 4 pts

Dasa29, NormaL _______________11.5 ___ 4 pts

waterways, JPmarn ____________ 11.4 ___ 3 pts

M.T. Cranium _________________ 11.3 ___ 2 pts

Joe Public ____________________ 11.1 ___ 2 pts

DOCARCH ____________________10.9 ___ 1 pt

John mac ____________________ 10.5 ___ 1 pt

BLIZZARD7 ___________________10.0 ___ 0 pts

-------------------------------------------------------------

Well done 200motels, Kindred Spirit and mickger844posts.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(2) thanks from:
22-05-2020, 19:14   #39
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,030
After three weeks, with the conclusion of the third week IMT tracker verified ...

IMT is now on 10.9 with the third week average 12.74 which was 1.3 above normal. Yesterday's average was close to 13.5, Claremorris had a rather low minimum which held them down, so the reported value from day six hardly moved up but the result is still above the highest forecast value of 12.6 so the provisional scoring I offered is confirmed now.

MAX of 23.6 and MIN of -3.2 have made it safely through.

PRC has risen to 41% with the third week at 74% of normal. The measurements came about halfway through the rainfall event last night, Cork and Valentia had received most of what they would eventually see, but other stations were just getting started into 5-15 mm totals. If I estimate where the rest of today's rainfall places PRC, that would be around 50% of normal for the month. If it remains largely dry after today then we'll be back down to this 40% mark by end of the week.

SUN is down to 124% with this past week only 67.3% (404/600).

Most likely finishing values from forecasts would be in the range of 11.2, 23.6, -3.2, 50% and 120%.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet