GFS rolling out again and it's more in line with what was showing the day before yesterday. It's much more plumey and continental for us with the Atlantic muck staying well out to our west. However there is some instability and thunderstorm potential within it.
I would bank this one. Up to next Tuesday it's broadly similar to what was shown this morning with warmth building from the south.
Wednesday see's a light south-easterly flow off the continent. the Atlantic tries to get close to us but doesn't quite get there.
Very warm by Friday 22nd with warm or very warm south-easterlies over Ireland, Low pressure in the Bay of Biscay may have an impact over southern areas with thunderstorms possible, especially in Kerry and Cork. Temperatures in the low to mid twenties widely.
Cooler with instability on Saturday 23rd, heavy showers or thunderstorms likely throughout the weekend.
Heights rise again by Monday 24th and the heat builds back.
We stay generally warm on mostly settled into the following week.
All to play for yet, this could go either way. Hopefully the warmer more continental flow will win out and we can keep the proper Atlantic flow at bay as much as possible. There is also the potential for some warm to very warm weather at times with thunderstorm potential in places as low pressures from the Atlantic or Bay of Biscay never too far away. Certainly the second half of May could be a good deal warmer than the first half. You could say this is starting to look very like May/June 2018 with the Azores high extending it's ridging over us from time to time as well.