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01-05-2020, 12:48   #31
Gonzo
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some very big changes within the charts in just a few days, that's why FI is called Fantasy island for a reason, quite often the extended range stuff doesn't play out especially if it's forecasting the stuff we love such as hot plumes or cold plunges.

The very wet models of recent days have now started trending much dryer, especially over the next week. Temperatures will lift up to the high teens in places over the next week, but no record warmth as what was showing in the ECM a few days ago.

Another big change is a very definite cold plunge in about 9 days time, temperatures fall off the cliff delivery possibly a taste of winter around the 10th of May with uppers crashing as low as -8C on some of the models. A few of the model are also showing potential for some sleet and snow showers with this too over high ground with daytime temperatures as low as 8C and lower during any showers.Places like Scotland could see low level snow at night.



May the 7th looks very pleasant, with light south-easterlies and relatively settled conditions, feeling quite Spring like with warmer temperatures especially in the west, still a bit cool along the east coast.



Temperatures could get close to 20C in some western areas next week and possibly 15C in eastern areas with the onshore breeze keeping much of Leinster several degree's cooler. Should be pleasant with sunshine in most places next Thursday and Friday.



Big change around the 10th/11th of May with a cold plunge from the north-east. This is what we wanted to see all winter and we end up getting it in May.



Many of the models are going colder than this bringing -5C uppers and colder through the country, however the GFS Operational doesn't get as cold as that.

We finish on May the 17th, still with a very cool airflow over the country and temperatures in the low teens at best.



For once I really hope this cold spell does not work out, it's far too late in the year for something this cold. Fingers crossed this one gets shoved off the table fairly quickly.
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01-05-2020, 12:50   #32
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Any charts from that one absolutely outrageous outlier on the top of the ensembles above?
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01-05-2020, 14:08   #33
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A very impressive arctic high on some models runs. It's just typical we'd get these charts at the wrong time of year.
Looks like the Scottish ski resorts could be in for some snow during the second week Of may. I fear that we could end up with low pressure systems hovering over us as we go later into the month. Still, i'd take a lousy May, if it meant we ended up with a decent June to follow.
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01-05-2020, 14:10   #34
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Any charts from that one absolutely outrageous outlier on the top of the ensembles above?
I presume this is the one, all the other ensembles are cool or cold, but this one is very warm indeed with +15C uppers in places.





unfortunately basically zero chance of this one pulling off.
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01-05-2020, 15:07   #35
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all in all still a good deal of uncertainty with the models but it's beginning to look like May is going to be a very mixed bag and more unsettled than April and generally cooler too. The West may once again end up with the best temperatures during any decent sunny days with the winds possibly in from the east or north-east for much of the first half of May. I think the second of May may be more unsettled and Atlantic driven but we shall see.
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01-05-2020, 16:26   #36
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all in all still a good deal of uncertainty with the models but it's beginning to look like May is going to be a very mixed bag and more unsettled than April and generally cooler too. The West may once again end up with the best temperatures during any decent sunny days with the winds possibly in from the east or north-east for much of the first half of May. I think the second of May may be more unsettled and Atlantic driven but we shall see.
A strong area of high pressure over Ireland is still fairly useless for warmth in May if you're living along the East coast as the sea breeze keeps things far too cold. You'd need exceptional uppers over the country.

Sometimes it's not even sunny with the coastline being plagued by mist. It's not really until June that temps above 20 celsius, if even, are possible in set ups like that.

Of course temps above 20 are possible in the East in May or even April but, ironically, it's usually when there's lower pressure over us and the weather for the country as a whole is 'worse', with the winds coming from the west or south west and often rain on the way and the East just about staying dry.

So I'd take a poorer May if it meant a better June, July or August - or September even!

The April sun was lovely in Dublin but it only felt really warm on about two days.
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01-05-2020, 21:11   #37
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Models do seem to be picking up on something towards the middle part of May. This is current GEFS run showing 850 hPa temp anomalies:



EPS showing something similar also, but I also recall that both these outputs showed something similar at the beginning of last month that never really materialised in the end. Also, I read recently the model accuracy has fallen through the floor since aircraft data (which is fed into model output) has become ever more scant. Not saying that the models are wrong again this time around, but this is something to keep in mind when looking at longer range data maybe.
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01-05-2020, 23:14   #38
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this evenings ECM is looking grim for mid May, cold, windy and showery, possibly wintry falls on high ground.



The east coast would be raw with this one, wind is sourced along way north into the North Pole. Daytime temperatures would struggle to make it past single digits with this one and possibly frosts at night.
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04-05-2020, 20:19   #39
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the GFS is still going for an nonseasonal taste of winter next week. By Wednesday 13th of May it has us in a very cold spell of weather with -6 and -7C uppers over the country! We barely saw these uppers all winter and here we are close to the beginning to Summer with such uppers.







If these come off it could prove quite damaging to plants and possibly farmers with hard overnight frosts and possibly wintry showers by night.





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06-05-2020, 17:11   #40
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Are we still looking at cold weather next week? Anyone any predictions on May/June weather this year?
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06-05-2020, 18:26   #41
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Are we still looking at cold weather next week? Anyone any predictions on May/June weather this year?
still cold from Sunday but not as much as a direct hit as it was looking a few days ago. We get the northerly but we miss out on the wintry showers and temperatures not quite as low as what Scotland and parts of England will get. Temperatures will stage a recovery from Tuesday and we are back to an easterly by this time next week. From the 15th of May is starting to trend much milder and over all the next 2 weeks is now looking relatively dry apart from some showers or light rain, and the Atlantic looks like staying out to our west for the time being.



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06-05-2020, 20:39   #42
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Thank you for the update 🙂ðŸ‘ðŸ»
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08-05-2020, 21:00   #43
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Both ECM and GFS still showing mainly under the influence of Hp out to +240 hrs , low rainfall totals going by present charts.



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09-05-2020, 15:25   #44
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latest GFS throwing a bit of a heat wobble around the 23rd of May. It's not well supported and I think this will miss us, most plumes head north and then north east usually leaving Ireland on the cool side. Could this work out? I sure hope so, but I have my doubts.



The +12 uppers over the country, would bring very warm temperatures up to the 25 or 26C in places.

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12-05-2020, 21:11   #45
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ECM now showing very warm weather at the end of the run at +240hrs ......for the moment anyway( hottest chart shown so far this year getting up to the mid 20's). A lot of moving parts have to come together for that to happen but in general showing very little rainfall ( not good for the farmers, gardeners ,reservoirs or the firefighters from gorse fires ) and under the influence of Hp for a fair bit of the time. GFS has moved more towards the influence of LP at around +240hrs.









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