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15-05-2020, 07:25   #5626
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 15 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal to perhaps 1.0 deg above normal in some eastern and inland southern counties.
-- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent of normal in most places, to near 50 per cent in north and northwest.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, although possibly a bit below in the north due to more persistent cloud there.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy in the north, partly cloudy in central counties, and sunny with cloudy intervals in Munster and some nearby parts of south Leinster. There could be a few light sprinkles of rain across Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster, amounts trace to 2 mm. Highs will range from 19 C in the inland south and southwest, to 14 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with more frequent clear intervals in the south, lows 4 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be similar to today in cloud cover, but any rain showers that do develop in the north could be a bit heavier in a few places. Highs once again 14 to 19 C in a similar pattern to today.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy in all areas and there will likely be some steady rain at times in Connacht, Ulster and some adjacent parts of Leinster. It could hold largely dry in Munster and south Leinster with a few brighter intervals. Highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY will see the cloud gradually breaking to more frequent sunny spells, and any remnant showers will likely end by afternoon across parts of the north. Turning a bit warmer with highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY will be sunny, hazy and quite warm inland, with a risk of low cloud or sea fog near the south coast. Highs inland 20 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out dry and partly cloudy, then turn overcast with a band of showers becoming heavier towards the end of the day, highs 19 to 22 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for a somewhat cooler turn to the weather after that front moves through, with several days of partly to mostly cloudy weather and occasional showers. The trend for late May appears to be cooler still with more frequent showery frontal passages bringing a partial end to the dry spell. It should be emphasized that changes will be gradual and the ongoing dry spell would only end in stages and in some areas before others.

My local weather on Thursday (similar to the previous day which I think was left out yesterday) was overcast with the threat of showers rather constant, but very little rain actually fell here, despite an active radar showing some heavy downpours a few miles to our south and west. Highs both days were around 15 C. The cool spell seems to be ending over eastern regions with a return to more normal temperatures there.
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16-05-2020, 07:49   #5627
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Saturday, 16 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 May 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal, perhaps slightly above in a few eastern counties.
-- Rainfall will average rather close to average for a change, even in the southeast eventually although it will hold dry longest (to mid-week).
-- Sunshine will average close to normal in some parts of the southeast but probably about 25 per cent below average elsewhere, to 50 per cent below normal in the north and west.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in eastern and central counties. There will be scattered outbreaks of drizzle or very light rain mostly in Ulster and Connacht although some may extend a slight distance into north Leinster and west Munster. These will not produce very much rainfall today, trace to 2 mm amounts. Highs 14 to 17 C mildest in the inland southeast.

TONIGHT will become more overcast with the patchy light drizzle turning to a steady light rain for most of the west and north. The patchy light drizzle will then be encountered further east and into parts of the inland south. Lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be dull and rather damp at best, with some steady rainfalls of 5-10 mm possible in the west and north. It could hold off most of the day in the southeast at least in Waterford, south Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford and Wicklow. Highs once again 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will start out similar to the weekend but there should be a slow improving trend as the cloud and moisture slowly give way to partly cloudy skies and the occasional longer sunny interval. Morning lows 7 to 10 C and afternoon highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY looks rather variable for cloud cover but only scattered showers are likely and not very much accumulation expected. Some longer dry and possibly sunny intervals will persist in the south and east. Lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out quite warm with scattered showers developing, some may become thundery and rather heavy by late in the day as a weak and disorganized frontal system slowly approaches. Lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C.

THURSDAY will see some further showery rainfalls and these will be slowly drifting further south and east perhaps bringing an end to the dry spell in the southeast. Total rainfalls in the mid-week interval should be in the 10 to 20 mm range in most regions. Highs near 18 C.

By next FRIDAY and SATURDAY a more settled regime will build in behind the slow-moving fronts and there could be longer intervals of sunshine then with highs near seasonal normals of 16 to 18 C.

The OUTLOOK beyond that is more unsettled with a chance of some more significant but not excessive rainfalls, at the most it should return to a normal amount of rain rather than going to the other extreme, at least for the foreseeable future.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with occasional heavy showers mid-day and a warmish feel with highs around 18 C combined with rather high humidity. Our trees have come all the way to full if a bit tender leaf foliation now. There is still snow visible on the higher peaks (about 2000 metres elevation) nearby, but it has melted from the lower hills that reach 1600 metres elevation close to the town. Apparently the snow pack in the province was 25 to 50 per cent above normal values and it's melting fast this week so that flood watches are in place on many river systems; that is not a problem locally as we are on dry slopes here and no running creeks nearby, while the Columbia River in the nearby valley is extensively dammed and flood-controlled these days (it used to flood severely in some spring runoff events before those were built). The larger rivers in southern B.C. tend to peak in their runoff around late May into June. The worst flooding in modern times occurred in 1948 and before that in 1894.
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17-05-2020, 07:44   #5628
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Sunday, 17 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



Trends for the week of 17 to 23 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.0 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal too, once we see larger amounts mid-week.
-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent below normal though.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brief brighter intervals, and occasional spells of light rain or drizzle. These may be somewhat more persistent by afternoon and evening in parts of the west and later in the north. Amounts of 3-7 mm can be expected. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, mild and misty with lows around 11 or 12 C.

MONDAY will see the cloud rather persistent in the morning to mid-day, with some improvements later in the day, and a bit more rain is likely especially for western and northern counties. Some low cloud and drifting sea fog is possible near south coast at times. Highs 16 to 19 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with somewhat more generous sunny breaks, and isolated showers, highs near 21 C inland.

WEDNESDAY will become overcast with occasional showers or even an isolated thunderstorm, highs near 21 C.

There is some divergence in the guidance available by Thursday, with some models showing a clearing trend and others a continuation of the Wednesday showers. This divergence ends up with a choice by Friday between rather bland weather continuing, or a stronger wind from southwest as a deep low forms and moves past Donegal late in the day. So on that we'll have to wait and see, probably the latter solution has more backing on form at least. Either way, temperatures should remain near average for mid-May.

The outlook beyond that is obviously even more uncertain if we can't be too sure which way the pattern will go at four days' range, but there are fairly consistent signals of a more unsettled theme emerging and continued near average late May temperatures.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy but dry with comfortable temperatures around 17 C.
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18-05-2020, 07:49   #5629
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Monday, 18 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which at this point are around 17 C daytime, 7 C for overnight lows).
-- Rainfall may approach normal values although it now looks somewhat less likely so have revised this down to 75% of normal.
-- Sunshine will probably be fairly close to normal by the end of the week, even if it starts out rather cloudy.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy to start with a few lingering areas of drizzle or light rain, but there should be some improvements by mid-day and sunny breaks inland at least by afternoon, south coast could remain socked in with some low cloud and sea fog locally, and it will become rather warm and humid with highs reaching 18 to 20 C (except for a few coastal and far northern locations around 15 C).

TONIGHT will be misty and quite mild with patchy drizzle and lows near 12 C.

TUESDAY will have a mixture of cloud and sunshine, with quite warm conditions likely over most inland counties, highs 19 to 22 C. Some coastal areas could remain under more cloud, some mist or sea fog and highs closer to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will also start out warm and dry with highs reaching 20 or 21 C then with increasing cloud a band of showers will cross the country from west to east by the evening hours, expect perhaps 5 mm of rain from that, with moderate southerly winds veering to southwest overnight.

THURSDAY will be a somewhat fresher day with scattered showers and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY there is now model consensus on the close approach of low pressure from the central Atlantic bringing a spell of rather windy and wet weather, in particular to the Atlantic coastal counties. This won't be remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur but a separate low that forms about a thousand miles northeast of that storm mid-week, however, it does seem to take a lot of the energy away from Arthur which goes on to meander around west of Bermuda as a remnant depression. The low affecting Ireland will briefly become intense northeast of the Azores by Thursday but should be in a more moderate condition by the time it passes offshore from Mayo and Donegal on Friday morning. The results will be southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr and some heavy bands of showers with 10-15 mm potential for western parts of Ireland, more like 5-10 mm further east. Highs on Friday will reach about 15 C.

The OUTLOOK is for gradual improvement of these blustery conditions through Saturday, then another fairly warm and dry interval lasting for several days to be followed by a more active and gradually cooling regime towards the end of May.

My local weather on Sunday was very foggy much of the day, I would imagine in nearby valleys this fog was a low cloud ceiling at our elevation, and we had a few intervals of rather heavy rainfall too, with temperatures around 14 C. Tropical Storm Arthur has formed southeast of the Carolinas and is currently a weak tropical storm with maximum winds around 35-40 knots, expected to strengthen a bit by late today near Cape Hatteras, then will move slowly eastward, as I mentioned in the forecast for Friday, losing most of its energy to a distant low that forms well to the southeast of Newfoundland, while what's left of Arthur drops southeast then stalls west of Bermuda. It is becoming fairly common in recent years for a named storm in May, I think we've had them in maybe four of the past twelve years (even once in April). It's a combination of a longer season and a better ability to detect weak tropical storms. For whatever reason the season does not seem to be getting longer at the autumn into early winter end, in fact the November champion remains 1887 in that regard.
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19-05-2020, 07:44   #5630
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Tuesday, 19 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 80 per cent of normal, the higher values in the west and north. Friday will account for much of this.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals developing, a rather humid day but little if any rain expected, just a few patchy intervals of drizzle more likely in west and north than elsewhere. Highs 19 to 22 C inland, closer to 15 C along exposed coasts in a light southerly breeze that may bring some sea fog to the coast or some distance inland at times.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 7 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out with some sunny intervals after morning mist clears away, and it could be quite warm in sunshine with highs of about 19 to 22 C again. A weak band of showers will drift through the country by late in the day; this front has been robbed of its energy by the stronger system forming back around the Azores. The overnight period will be mild with lows only 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will remain largely dry after the early morning remnants of the weak front clear east, and with some sunshine it's likely to be just about as warm as the previous two days at perhaps 18 to 20 C. Winds will pick up to become moderate southerly by late afternoon. A band of heavy showers or longer intervals of rain will roll in by late evening and persist overnight into Friday morning, lows 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will become quite windy with some strong gusts near the Atlantic coasts, generally southwest 50 to 80 km/hr but locally 70 to 110 km/hr can be expected, with a total of about 10-15 mm of rain. The showers will be more persistent in western and later in northern counties after the initial band moves through during the early morning hours and there could be partial clearing later for the south and east. Highs falling back to around 16 C in the blustery Atlantic flow.

SATURDAY will see the after-effects of the passing low with moderate southwest winds and showers decreasing in coverage until skies become at least partly clear by late in the day, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY of the following week will be sunny and warm with highs near 22 C. This warm spell may fade out gradually later in the week as somewhat cooler but still dry air masses arrive from points a bit further north in the central/western Atlantic, but it should remain near seasonal averages for a few days before perhaps falling even further to cooler than normal at the end of the month.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with occasional rain and highs near 15 C. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur moved past Cape Hatteras on Monday afternoon and has rapidly left the east coast of the U.S. to reach a position about midway between New York City and Bermuda. The Friday system for Ireland is coming together now between Bermuda and the Azores, and will be heading for Ireland before remnants of Arthur reach the scene, but the energy from Arthur is rapidly being absorbed by this new system as a low near Chicago is now the main player in eastern North America; Arthur got caught between upper level energy peaks and will just die out now to the northwest of Bermuda while the central Atlantic low moves towards the Faeroes and the Chicago based low plods east bringing a lot of rain to the inland northeastern U.S. with temperatures falling a bit in easterly winds. Also, a low in Alberta and Saskatchewan with troughing south towards northern Utah and western Colorado is drawing a lot of Gulf moisture north and we could be seeing some severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the plains states and southern prairies later this week.
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20-05-2020, 08:04   #5631
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Wednesday, 20 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 80 per cent of normal, the higher values in the west and north. Friday will account for much of this.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny apart from some coastal fog, with cloud already beginning to spread into western counties slowly increasing later in the day. Quite warm in most areas with highs 20 to 23 C. Some coastal sea breezes and low cloud may hold temperatures closer to 15 C locally near south coast in particular, and 17-19 C on other coasts.

TONIGHT ... A weak band of showers will drift through the country reaching the east coast by about 0300h to 0600h, about 2 to 5 mm rain is likely if even that much, and the skies will clear rapidly once the front passes. Lows 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will remain largely dry after the early morning remnants of the weak front clear east, and with some sunshine it's likely to be just about as warm as the previous two days at perhaps 18 to 20 C. Winds will pick up to become moderate southerly by late afternoon. A band of heavy showers or longer intervals of rain will roll in by late evening and persist overnight into Friday morning, lows 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will become quite windy with some strong gusts near the Atlantic coasts, generally southwest 50 to 80 km/hr but locally 70 to 110 km/hr can be expected, with a total of about 10-20 mm of rain by Friday morning in all areas, possibly a bit more in parts of west Munster and Connemara. Then about 5 to 10 mm additional rain will occur mostly in western and later in northern counties from more localized bands of showers in blustery southwest winds, after the initial band moves through during the early morning hours, and there could be partial clearing later for the south and east. Highs falling back to around 16 C in the blustery Atlantic flow.

SATURDAY will see the after-effects of the passing low with moderate southwest winds and showers decreasing in coverage until skies become at least partly clear by late in the day, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY of the following week will be sunny and warm with highs near 20 C on Sunday and 22 C on Monday.

OUTLOOK ... By Monday evening and overnight, another rather weak cold front will bring 3-5 mm rainfalls and then it will be a bit cooler for the next few days, with highs 16 to 18 C. Near the end of the week it may recover closer to 20 C, but stronger cold fronts are indicated for near the end of May into early June and a cooler northerly flow may drop temperatures below seasonal normals for a change.

My local weather on Tuesday was largely overcast, still rather warm, with slow-moving showers in the vicinity, looking like they were creating some heavy downpours a few miles away but just traces of rain fell locally, at about 18 C. Arthur is already "post tropical" and the other Atlantic low has taken away a considerable portion of its energy and begun to accelerate away to the northwest of the Azores. By about Friday 0600h this low will be around 250 miles west of Mayo then will end up near the Hebrides late Friday. What's left of Arthur will stay in the general area of Bermuda with a tendency to drift back to the south and southwest, eventually just dissipating completely.
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21-05-2020, 07:47   #5632
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Thursday, 21 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 80 per cent of normal, most of it coming tonight and Friday (so the first part of the week above normal, but then back to a rather dry pattern for several days).
-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal, and this is the sunniest part of the year with 5-6 hours on the average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out mainly sunny with light winds and temperatures quickly warming up to highs of 20 to 22 C by mid-day. Cloud will then rapidly increase with rain arriving in the southwest by evening, in a strengthening southerly wind.

TONIGHT will see a band of heavy rain with thunderstorms possible, 15-25 mm rainfalls likely, and it will get quite windy in all areas, southerly 50 to 80 km/hr, veering to southwest by morning. Some more exposed areas of the west coast will see gusts to 100 km/hr.

FRIDAY the skies will become partly cloudy for most areas with showers more isolated, but western counties, and later on northern counties, will get more frequent showers and could see more thunder and hail as a result. Further amounts will range from 2 mm in the southeast to about 10-15 mm in the northwest. It will be considerably cooler with highs only 15 to 17 C.

SATURDAY the ocean storm will be pulling away from Scotland but it will remain quite blustery over western and northern counties with further showers likely, while the south and east are more likely to remain dry with partly cloudy skies. Winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr and morning lows near 10 C, afternoon highs near 15 C (possibly 17 C in sheltered parts of the southeast).

SUNDAY will bring a return to this week's fine weather with mostly sunny skies and warmer highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will start out that way also, with a rather weak front approaching Connacht and Ulster by mid-day and reaching Munster and Leinster during the late afternoon. This will cloud over the skies with a few showers but only 2-5 mm rainfalls appear likely. Highs 14 to 17 C in the northwest, 17 to 19 C across Munster into the midlands and central Leinster, and near 20 C inland southeast.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 17 C.

There will be another settled interval at least for the southern and central parts of the country mid-week to almost the end of the month, with highs 18-20 C. It may be rather cloudy with more frequent light rain in the north as the jet stream will be dropping south closer to Ireland and the effects of high pressure may be cut off north of about Galway to Dundalk as a result.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a few showers and highs near 14 C. Good thing this ocean storm (now northeast of the Azores located around 45N 25W) is taking a track well out to sea when passing Ireland tonight, as it looks quite intense on satellite imagery near its core, possibly 140 km/hr winds out there in the Atlantic, but those won't come much closer than the outer portions of the marine areas like Rockall overnight. The peak gusts on land should be in the range of 100-110 km/hr at the usual places along the west coast, and similar or not quite that strong on the south coast. Inland your peak gusts may be 60-80 km/hr depending on how well exposed you are to the south-southwest. No significant damage is expected at those intensity levels but you might want to tie down or secure any climbing plants.
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22-05-2020, 08:06   #5633
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 22 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 25 to 50 per cent of normal (with the qualifier that any rain that just fell today already is not part of that total, counting that more like 50 to 75 per cent).
-- Sunshine will average near normal values but it will tend to be somewhat reduced relative to normal further north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be unseasonably windy especially in Connacht, some parts of Munster, and west Ulster, where strong gusts have been occurring for several hours and this will continue with a gradual easing by afternoon. Peak gusts so far include 120 km/hr at Newport. For most of the country winds in the range of 60 to 100 km/hr are likely, slightly stronger on exposed coasts and in hilly terrain. Some minor damage is likely but fortunately even stronger winds out to sea will remain out there (peak gusts to 140 km/hr may be encountered in the Atlantic marine areas). The skies will be largely overcast for most of the morning then a few breaks will appear, leading to some longer bright spells in the south and east. Some further rain is likely but there will be a lot of dry cloud scudding over with a few drizzle or light rain drops reaching the ground. For golfers, it's a four club wind, so bring the four wind club. Highs today near 17 C south and east, 14 C north and west.

TONIGHT will continue rather blustery with only a slight reduction in wind speeds to the 50-80 km/hr range in exposed areas, 30-60 km/hr inland. Skies will remain rather cloudy with passing showers in the west and north. Lows 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy (to overcast in west and north) with some clearing late afternoon and evening when the persistent moderate southwest winds will drop off also, but most of the day will be rather gusty with winds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny from north to south, with only a slight risk of isolated showers in the north. Morning lows 6 to 9 C and afternoon highs 18 to 21 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with afternoon and evening showers or intervals of light rain, mostly affecting western and northern counties. This front will weaken later in the day moving inland and it could remain dry in parts of the southeast overnight as the remnants die out. Lows near 7 C and highs near 21 C.

TUESDAY will likely be a few degrees cooler in a partly cloudy westerly flow, but the temperature range will average the same as lows will be near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY is currently looking a bit unsettled with a rather weak disturbance digging into the surface ridge and bringing a few showers along, highs 17 to 19 C.

The OUTLOOK beyond Thursday calls for a few more days of seasonably warm and dry weather around Friday-Saturday 29th-30th followed by a more unsettled and somewhat cooler interval where some colder air masses manage to get involved in a more variable pattern.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with a few showers in the vicinity, not much rain actually fell and highs reached about 15 C. We have not seen much sunshine here all week. There are some heavier thunderstorms east of the Rockies near the U.S.-Canada border. I was just thinking today that storm chasing will be way down this season (the peak is approaching) and confined to people in their own vicinity but there will probably be some reports on weather forums.
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23-05-2020, 08:13   #5634
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Saturday, 23 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 30 per cent of normal, lowest in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks developing across the south and later in central and eastern counties. Some remnant showers mostly north of a Galway to Dundalk line, even here, amounts only 1 to 3 mm. Moderate southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr but stronger near northern coasts 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed north Donegal. Cool with highs only around 14 C north to 16 or 17 C in the southeast.

TONIGHT will become mainly clear except in the far north which will reach partly cloudy conditions after midnight. The blustery winds will slowly die out and lows will be 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly sunny and warmer with highs 18 to 21 C.

MONDAY will have some sunny intervals with highs near 22 C then increasing cloud with outbreaks of light rain mostly confined to Connacht, Ulster and some adjacent parts of Leinster and Munster, even these areas seeing only 1 to 4 mm of rain, as a weak front disintegrates by Monday night.

TUESDAY will be rather cloudy in the north especially, with sunshine more widespread by afternoon in Munster and south Leinster. Highs 17 to 20 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for high pressure to exert its influence mid-week with highs at least 18 to 21 C and possibly a bit higher in parts of the west as winds swing around to light southeasterly. Beyond about Friday, models are not picking up very consistent signals and the most likely trend there would be warmer with increasing amounts of cloud by early June then turning rather cool after a day or two into the new month.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy and rather foggy with light rain and highs only around 12 C.
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24-05-2020, 06:36   #5635
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Sunday, 24 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 May, 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values, with a warming trend through the interval.
-- Rainfall will average only about 10 per cent of normal values in the north, and near zero in the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal in the north, to 25% above average in the south.


FORECASTS

TODAY will gradually brighten as cloud remaining over the north begins to break up slowly. Any lingering drizzle in Ulster or nearby north Leinster should end by mid-day at the latest. Highs near 15 C north and near west coast, with some mist or sea fog possible there. Warming to highs near 19 or 20 C in the inland south, central and eastern counties, near 17 C on the south coast.

TONIGHT will bring some clear skies in many areas, and lows 6 to 9 C. Mist and fog patches may form in some valleys.

MONDAY will start out sunny, and cloud will increase faster in the west and north than elsewhere, leading to sporadic outbreaks of light rain by late afternoon and evening, 1-4 mm expected in west and north, dry to 2 mm elsewhere and that mostly after dark. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will be rather cloudy at times in the north with patchy drizzle, hazy sunshine should return in the south if any cloud lingers from the weak front that will be turning around and drifting back north now as a warm front. Morning lows near 10 C and afternoon highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be hazy and warm, still with some risk of low cloud and drizzle in some northern counties. Highs generally 19 to 22 C, could be held down in the north or some coastal areas by low cloud or sea breezes locally.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY is looking quite warm now with the high pressure area swelling up right over Ireland and bringing ideal weather conditions with light winds, warm temperatures and considerable sunshine. Highs may reach values in the mid 20s in many areas and at least the high teens to low 20s near coasts too. This spell will break down somewhat beyond the end of the month and the first week of June (which starts on Monday 1st of June) but the warm, dry influence will be in the mix despite some weak frontal systems and plodding areas of low pressure trying to break down the block, the net result will probably be almost as warm and dry as this coming week but with some light rainfalls and temperatures a bit closer to normal values by then.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with passing showers and a cool high of only 14 C. Seems like we are in phase because the forecast I just worked out for Ireland is very similar to the local forecast too in most details. We will also be seeing some early summer heat by late this coming week. This is a concern in the region because an above normal snowpack remains to be fully melted on higher terrain and rivers are generally running just below flood stage now.
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Yesterday, 07:54   #5636
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 25 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



The trends remain similar, warm, dry and reasonably sunny although more so for the south, central and eastern counties.

TODAY will be sunny with increasing cloud through the morning hours in the west, but not reaching the east until mid to late afternoon. This cloud will be followed by patchy light rain in some western counties where 2-4 mm could fall. It is likely to stay dry further east. Highs will reach 20 C in the east, 18 C inland west and 15 C on the Atlantic coasts, 17 C south coast.

TONIGHT the light rain will dissipate after reaching some parts of the inland north, but it may remain cloudy most of the night with lows falling to about 10-12 C.

TUESDAY will see this remnant cloud stubbornly hanging on in some northern counties but hazy sunshine will replace it further south, and highs will reach 18 to 21 C where it does clear, 14 to 16 C where it remains cloudy.

WEDNESDAY will produce more widespread sunshine with any remnant cloud restricted to a few northern coastal areas, and it will become even warmer at 19 to 23 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking very warm and sunny with highs possibly reaching 25 C in central and western counties, closer to 21 C inland east and 17 C in some coastal areas exposed to the light southeast flow.

NEXT WEEKEND will likely remain fairly warm and dry, with highs in the 20 to 24 C range.

The models keep pushing back any breakdown of this warm and settled interval, you'll recall it was being advertised to break down near the end of May but now it's more like the first weekend into June. Who knows maybe this will continue all summer and it will break down in October. (not a forecast by the way)

My local weather improved a little with a dry day for a change, some sunny breaks in the morning mostly, then back to a thick overcast in advance of more rain expected overnight, fairly close to us now on the radar. The high was about 16 C. Once this rain comes and goes we are likely to warm up steadily to reach readings in the 25-28 C range later in the week.
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Today, 07:29   #5637
M.T. Cranium
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Tuesday, 26 May, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, 2-3 deg above normal, largely dry and with at least average sunshine if not a little more (south, east).

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy with some lingering mist or drizzle, but it should steadily improve in many areas with sunshine at times by mid-day and longer spells of sunshine by afternoon. This will warm temperatures up to around 19-22 C, with a few coastal areas that may stay cloudy also remaining closer to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be hazy and somewhat misty with mild lows of 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring hazy sunshine except for some low cloud and drizzle remaining near some northwestern coastal areas, generally quite warm with highs 19 to 23 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be very warm with at least some hazy sunshine despite a bit of cloud here and there, and a slight risk of isolated showers breaking out inland southwest. Lows near 12 C and highs 22 to 25 C, somewhat cooler in a few coastal areas.

The WEEKEND is looking somewhat cloudier with a slight chance of light rain in parts of the west and inland south, but still some sunny spells and relatively warm temperatures in the 20 to 23 C range.

OUTLOOK ... An easterly breeze may bring in slightly cooler air around Monday 1st of June, but temperatures are only expected to drop slightly and that mostly due to the stronger breeze bringing in cooler marine layers from the Irish Sea into Leinster. Western counties may not see much if any cooling, then this easterly will tend to die out as high pressure rebuilds, but it probably won't be quite as warm as this coming week, more like 19-22 C on average, still a bit above seasonal normals in many cases. Not much rain is likely to fall with these rather subtle changes, but if any does it would most likely be 1-3 mm amounts in some parts of the west and inland south.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing showers and highs near 15 C.
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