Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
11-01-2019, 20:20   #181
YanSno
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 217
That's a messy looking output, sleet to snow then back to sleet

Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs



360hrs

YanSno is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
11-01-2019, 20:53   #182
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by YanSno View Post
That's a messy looking output, sleet to snow then back to sleet
Unlikely that the cold pool would be quite as fragmented as shown, especially on the later chart. If we hang on to -6/-7 uppers or better, should be snow throughout surely.

+360hrs as well so any refinement like that will be totally different nearer the time
sdanseo is offline  
11-01-2019, 21:20   #183
YanSno
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
Unlikely that the cold pool would be quite as fragmented as shown, especially on the later chart. If we hang on to -6/-7 uppers or better, should be snow throughout surely.

+360hrs as well so any refinement like that will be totally different nearer the time
The fragmented cold is where the warm core probably would be located and with onshore winds it would be mostly sleet for the east cost.
YanSno is offline  
(2) thanks from:
11-01-2019, 23:38   #184
kod87
Registered User
 
kod87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by YanSno View Post
The fragmented cold is where the warm core probably would be located and with onshore winds it would be mostly sleet for the east cost.
Maybe, maybe not, but it's so far out in FI that going into any detail on those charts is meaningless.

The only use for charts that far out is to see if any trend is developing and even then it is extremely unlikely.
kod87 is offline  
Thanks from:
11-01-2019, 23:46   #185
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,846
The GFS 18Z continues the colder theme. In general what I am seeing in the charts is potentially turning wintry at times. Bit of a mix of everything I would imagine. Rain fronts and sleet and possible wet snow on higher elevations , possibly in the W /NW /N more so , windy at times, quieter interludes, hail and possible sporadic thunder at times behind the fronts, cold frosty nights in sheltered areas , white peaks on mountains at times, dazzling sunshine , windchill and a stretch in the evenings ! Looking colder the further out with an increasing chance of some snowfall towards around +240hrs perhaps but this could be more so on elevated ground ?

Will be interesting to see if we get a front like what is showing up on the ECM around next Thurs or Fri . A rain belt running into cold air, a scenario like this could produce a brief dump of snow ( but upper temperatures might need to be a bit colder ) along the leading edge followed by sleet and rain. Snow possibly settling on high ground for a short time as warmer air follows behind.




















Meteorite58 is offline  
Advertisement
12-01-2019, 10:17   #186
Danno
Registered User
 
Danno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 4,896


Nice - widespread snow!
Danno is offline  
12-01-2019, 23:39   #187
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,616
This time next weekend the snowlercoaster will be going up the arc .... hope theres not a dip but the over 200hr consensus is cold. I think midweek is the last time we see 10c in January.
pauldry is offline  
13-01-2019, 11:35   #188
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,846
ECM 0Z in general showing the temperatures cooler past +120hrs than previous runs. Even with the passage of fronts it shows upper temps in the main staying negative. Gets even more interesting from next weekend with what appears to be a slider low negatively tilted moving across Ireland around the early days of Mon- Weds week. Looks wintry. ECM showing possibility of snow at this early stage. No doubt changes can and will happen but i expect by this time next week the mild period in Dec /Jan will be well behind us as we adjust to proper winter weather.









Meteorite58 is offline  
13-01-2019, 17:18   #189
squarecircles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,318
atrocious 12z gfs


there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs


nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess
squarecircles is offline  
(2) thanks from:
Advertisement
13-01-2019, 17:20   #190
Snowbiee21
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 577
Quote:
Originally Posted by squarecircles View Post
atrocious 12z gfs


there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs


nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess
But we worent expecting anything next week really , wasn’t it all about the week after ajd possibly the first week into January ?
Snowbiee21 is offline  
Thanks from:
13-01-2019, 17:50   #191
Andrew00
Registered User
 
Andrew00's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 816
Outlook for January now is a small bit cold, but just your usual dirty Atlantic wind and rain
Andrew00 is offline  
13-01-2019, 17:51   #192
SleetAndSnow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 2,064
Imagine being in Scotland

SleetAndSnow is offline  
(2) thanks from:
13-01-2019, 18:05   #193
highdef
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 3,794
Precip charts for the GFS(P) are looking great for a potential decent snow event on Monday week.




Well into FI:




Last edited by highdef; 13-01-2019 at 18:10. Reason: Slowed down speed of gifs
highdef is offline  
13-01-2019, 18:14   #194
sdanseo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 7,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by squarecircles View Post
atrocious 12z gfs


there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs


nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess
Temps will struggle to get above 8c before Friday looking at the 12Z
It's wet muck alright but very fine margins for Thursday. -8 uppers and <528dm thickness for the North and East but probably only sleet and snow over higher ground. A small fluctuation though as has been mentioned is all it will take either way - 100% rain or 100% snow.

FI is 96-120hrs if even that right now.

That said lots of potential for week commencing 21st.
sdanseo is offline  
13-01-2019, 19:21   #195
Rebelbrowser
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,479
Thoughts on the 12z ECM folks? I'm out of my depth analysing in current set up....
Rebelbrowser is offline  
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search