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11-01-2019, 14:10   #211
hatrickpatrick
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Very interesting to see Met Eireann officially acknowledge this. Seems to me based on this and the UKMO's live stream the other day, that experts are at least somewhat confident that downwelling is likely to occur.
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11-01-2019, 15:19   #212
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' The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.6 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -8.4 m/s 2004
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 66.8 m/s 2009 '

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12-01-2019, 17:44   #213
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There is still no sign of downwelling of note over the next 10 days. What we've seen now in terms of wind reversals in the strat and movement down to upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa and below) is about the extent of what we will see in the foreseeable. There are no indications of any trend towards a more retrogressive (blocking) largescale pattern, the 50 hPa ridging at 150W from about 6 days not showing any signs of amplifying and cutting off over the pole by day 10. From 100 hPa downwards the patter remains remarkably consistent, with a low over NE Canada/Greenland and a zonal pattern over the Atlantic showing up right down to 500 hPa.

For blocking towards the end of the month and into February we need to be seeing signs of reversals first at 100 hPa, then at 200, 300 and finally 500 hPa levels, but they are absent.

GFS 100 hPa Analysis, 5-day 10-day forecasts






ECMWF 100 hPa 10-day forecast


Seasonal zonal wind evolution and NASA 10-day forecasts


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Last edited by Gaoth Laidir; 12-01-2019 at 17:49.
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12-01-2019, 20:00   #214
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Reading the posts above, are we heading for an anticlimax in terms of a proper wintry outbreak?
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12-01-2019, 21:42   #215
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Reading the posts above, are we heading for an anticlimax in terms of a proper wintry outbreak?
Far too early to say. SSW and PV are only possible factors to delivering a cold spell.
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13-01-2019, 13:13   #216
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There is still no sign of downwelling of note over the next 10 days. What we've seen now in terms of wind reversals in the strat and movement down to upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa and below) is about the extent of what we will see in the foreseeable. There are no indications of any trend towards a more retrogressive (blocking) largescale pattern, the 50 hPa ridging at 150W from about 6 days not showing any signs of amplifying and cutting off over the pole by day 10. From 100 hPa downwards the patter remains remarkably consistent, with a low over NE Canada/Greenland and a zonal pattern over the Atlantic showing up right down to 500 hPa.

For blocking towards the end of the month and into February we need to be seeing signs of reversals first at 100 hPa, then at 200, 300 and finally 500 hPa levels, but they are absent.
This excellent analysis yesterday really knocked my confidence in the any upcoming potential.
But I was buoyed again this morning with an excellent ECM run, and I read that we're finally starting to see some signs of reversal at 100 hPa.

I've no idea how to verify that, so I'd love if you could please take the time to check for me. Ta
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13-01-2019, 14:46   #217
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Zonal winds at 100hpa in postive, a certain deceleration but expected to stay well into positive.

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13-01-2019, 20:36   #218
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https://twitter.com/Forecas55175638/...38351150075904
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Yesterday, 19:24   #219
sryanbruen
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https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1085245537606139904
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