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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Typical.

    My 2007 car bought new is very low mileage (nearly 30,000km as of today). Up till this time last year it was still on the original tyres but they had to be replaced due to rubber cracking as opposed to tread wear. I had always planned to replace the Summer tyres it came with, with a set of those new Michelin Cross Climates which have 99% of the respective performance of both Winter and Summer Tyres and yet wear as slowly as Summers. ie. The pinnacle of All Season due to the new rubber compounds. So the time finally came to change them in August 2017 after 10 years on the originals but I choked at the last minute and bought another set of Summers cause......when were we ever going to have another pair of Winters like 2009-2010 LOL

    Well only a few months later as it happens! Another thing happened that would mean Winter Tyres would be useful even without snow. My brother started borrowing the car very very regularly, started travelling the country in it and started dropping and collecting his Fiancee to and from work high up in the Wicklow Mountains several times a week. Those Winter/All Season tyres would have definitely been worth it after all as it turns out.

    He's saving for a wedding and I am financially embarrassed at the moment so can't afford a set of Winters at around €150 a corner so I just hope he remembers to take it very easy driving up there this Winter unlike how he forgot to take off the Snow Socks I bought for the car in March when he was back on the dry tarmac of the N11. ie. Shredded them on their first use. I feckin warned him to take em off before back on tarmac. Lucky for him the ones I bought were cheap.

    Anyway, Yeah, Reasonable chance of Snow this coming Winter?? Typical!! LOL.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    looking into SSW I came accross the following:
    Major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events occur in the Arctic stratosphere at a frequency of about six events per decade and involve a reversal of the stratospheric vortex, accompanied by a steep rise of the polar cap temperature (Craig et al. 1959; Limpasuvan et al. 2004).


    From:
    https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Kang-Tziperman-2017.pdf

    And I was wondering how many SSW events have we had this decade? And where to find that info?

    The SSW events that have occurred this decade are February 2010, January 2013, March 2016 and February 2018.

    These are amazing resources for research of stratospheric warming events and temperatures over the North Pole:

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/
    http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html
    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=2&year=1985&map=5&hour=6&type=era&region=nh

    The first link, SSW compendium, does not contain every SSW event that has occurred but it contains a good few of them and shows you different sorts of charts you can generate for the events.

    You better believe I'll be carefully examining the stratosphere this Winter like I did last. The stratosphere is a very important player. Hope the CFS is right with this consistency on a subdued Polar Vortex and a stratospheric warming event for late November (which would be a Canadian Warming event). This will become extremely influential come the latter part of the year if history's any indicator as such happened in 1962, 1968, 1977 and 2000; notice how all the Winters that followed these Novembers were in my tables above on the September post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Loughc wrote: »
    What does that mean? :pac:

    With the Polar Vortex weak and very disrupted, it makes blocking easier to occur around the Arctic (also higher chances of SSW events). There would be the possibility of seeing similar charts to this if it were to verify by later November or December to February.

    archives-2018-2-28-12-0.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    With the Polar Vortex weak and very disrupted, it makes blocking easier to occur around the Arctic (also higher chances of SSW events). There would be the possibility of seeing similar charts to this if it were to verify by later November or December to February.

    archives-2018-2-28-12-0.png

    I still can't get over how beautiful that chart is!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,485 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Imagine if that chart had happened in Jan


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,491 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Imagine if that chart had happened in Jan

    Day after tomorrow was based on that chart. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The SSW events that have occurred this decade are February 2010, January 2013, March 2016 and February 2018.

    These are amazing resources for research of stratospheric warming events and temperatures over the North Pole:

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/
    http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html
    https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=0&month=1&day=2&year=1985&map=5&hour=6&type=era&region=nh

    The first link, SSW compendium, does not contain every SSW event that has occurred but it contains a good few of them and shows you different sorts of charts you can generate for the events.

    You better believe I'll be carefully examining the stratosphere this Winter like I did last. The stratosphere is a very important player. Hope the CFS is right with this consistency on a subdued Polar Vortex and a stratospheric warming event for late November (which would be a Canadian Warming event). This will become extremely influential come the latter part of the year if history's any indicator as such happened in 1962, 1968, 1977 and 2000; notice how all the Winters that followed these Novembers were in my tables above on the September post.

    Thank you!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The ECM seasonal model update of September 2018 for Winter 2018-19 is unreal, certainly gets snow and cold lovers' jaws dropping. Just for fun but here it is, courtesy of the World Climate Service.

    We'll get to see a month by month analysis in a few days. If you'd like to see the August update of the model to compare, see the first page of this thread.

    zS5FebL.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    With the Polar Vortex weak and very disrupted, it makes blocking easier to occur around the Arctic (also higher chances of SSW events). There would be the possibility of seeing similar charts to this if it were to verify by later November or December to February.

    archives-2018-2-28-12-0.png

    Here is the UK Met Office frontal analysis chart for the same time on that day:

    LeHxwFL.jpg

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Last MArch watching the SixOne News and TV3 hangouts in the snow is something that will remain with me all my life. it would be something I can tell my kids but my kids are 7 so they will be able to tell their kids...

    Unless 2018/19 does a repeat...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    pauldry wrote: »
    Last MArch watching the SixOne News and TV3 hangouts in the snow is something that will remain with me all my life. it would be something I can tell my kids but my kids are 7 so they will be able to tell their kids...

    Unless 2018/19 does a repeat...
    So you are saying there is a chance!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    So you are saying there is a chance!!

    What our parents always responded to with, "Wait and see.!"


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Still awaiting on the monthly anomalies from the ECM seasonal model but the ECMWF has released its charts here including for Nov-Dec-Jan and what a beast of charts these are. I showed the Dec-Jan-Feb one but this is a different view of it and you can see the winds are full on easterly. Just for fun.

    8M8CI6Y.png

    q0B4T5q.png

    7I612M7.gif

    https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_system5_public_standard_mslp?facets=Range,Long%20(Months)&time=2018090100,2208,2018120200&stats=ensm


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    List of storm names has been released

    A14_E5_B7_F_AD9_F_4987_BE06_84_F58566215_F.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM seasonal model monthly charts are out. Beast from the East in December and especially January (nightmare charts if you're not a fan of cold or snow). Northerlies for November and February maybe? Hard to say with these weird charts for them months. Just for fun.

    scZarjL.png

    PeCfLl0.png

    4fMcI6m.png

    QiPZoFZ.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,126 ✭✭✭screamer


    pad199207 wrote: »
    List of storm names has been released

    A14_E5_B7_F_AD9_F_4987_BE06_84_F58566215_F.jpg
    And a partridge in a pear tree!

    I won't remember any of them TBH!


  • Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ Daisy Creamy Silver


    pad199207 wrote: »
    List of storm names has been released

    A14_E5_B7_F_AD9_F_4987_BE06_84_F58566215_F.jpg

    I'm looking forward to the met office pronouncing Storm Niamh!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Never thought I'd see my name on that list...unlikely I'll get named though as I'm well down the order lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Darwin wrote: »
    Never thought I'd see my name on that list...unlikely I'll get named though as I'm well down the order lol

    Storm Darwin was already a few years ago ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Darwin wrote: »
    Never thought I'd see my name on that list...unlikely I'll get named though as I'm well down the order lol

    Peggy ? :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,841 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    pad199207 wrote: »
    List of storm names has been released

    A14_E5_B7_F_AD9_F_4987_BE06_84_F58566215_F.jpg

    Why no Q?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    There's not many names beginning with Q.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,107 ✭✭✭highdef


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    There's not many names beginning with Q.

    Quentin immediately springs to mind. Quinn is another, which is also Irish.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    highdef wrote: »
    Quentin immediately springs to mind. Quinn is another, which is also Irish.

    We'll run out of names beginning with Q quickly though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Why no Q?
    As in previous years, Q, U, X, Y and Z will not be used, to comply with the international storm naming conventions.

    https://www.met.ie/storm-names-2018-19-announced


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Peggy ? :)

    Now that would be telling :pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Big Steve on Netweather teasing again with this:


    *** ALERT - TODAY IS A DATE RECORD BREAKER FOR THE STRATOSPHERE ***

    Weakest vortex ever for 13th September @4.3M/S ( 0.2 m/s below the 2001 record of 4.5M/S )

    data source ERA interim.

    Is this significant? - in isolation with a bandwith on todays date of 6M/S between the record strongest & weakest this its significance isnt as highly correlated to winter than say if we were here on November 13th-

    However today could be a signpost of whats to come this winter....


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