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09-01-2019, 07:45   #5101
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 9 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers or patchy drizzle, in light northerly breezes (backing to westerly near west coast later). Rather cold especially in Ulster and Leinster. Highs will range from 6 C near east coast and in most of Ulster, to 10 C in Kerry and some other coastal areas of south and west.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or drizzle, cool. Lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest winds returning (40-60 km/hr in coastal north and west). Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather windy at times, outbreaks of rain (5 mm could fall), and temperatures steady 9 to 11 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Possibly quite unsettled and windy, with a growing risk of colder weather developing from the north or northeast at some point between Thursday 17th and Monday 21st. Temperatures will hang on near 8 C until this change occurs and could then fall sharply. As guidance is still very uneven on this transition, it's a question of probability of when the transition will begin. It could take longer than ten days but I believe it will happen before we reach the end of the following week. When the colder spell begins, it could last quite a while so be prepared for that possibility. At some point in the next two weeks to a month, a disruptive cold and snow event seems fairly likely. We can't really begin to guess how disruptive until the details show up on charts, every cold spell has its own quirks and singularities. Some are rather dry and produce only marginal amounts of snow (like March 2013 for example). Others rapidly produce large quantities of snow (like December 2010 and last February into early March). I would say the period from 24 January to 10 February is the highest risk period at the pace of change currently. Change is already beginning to show up in North America with eastern regions facing a sharp colder trend. The first signs of colder weather on any guidance show up around Friday 18th so that is probably the earliest that any wintry weather could strike, perhaps we could say the probability starts around 10% there and increases by about 5% a day until it levels off around 70% by 1st of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, quite cold and a very light snow turned heavier by late afternoon, so we now have 3 cms on the ground and more gradually accumulating, with freezing drizzle mixing in, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Once this moves through, we are moving back into milder weather as central and eastern regions turn sharply colder. A possible snowstorm for the Washington D.C. region looms for this weekend but this storm will be coming together out of just some dry cloud formations west of Mexico's Baja peninsula at the present time (a front spinning off the Pacific storm hitting further north). The flow is about to buckle allowing much colder air to sink south into the Great Lakes region, then it will be held in place there as storms rotate around from the remnants of Pacific storms until they reach Greenland. What we need to see for Ireland and Britain to turn colder will be for the Greenland region to develop higher pressures at all levels steering these storms back into the Canadian arctic, and allowing higher pressure near the north pole to slide south into the vacuum left by the rise in pressures near Iceland. This will force the persistent high near Ireland and northwest France to push west to avoid being battered by the southward moving arctic jet stream. This scenario keeps appearing on 10-15 day time scales on various models and will become a big deal for the weather when it finally begins to settle into shorter time frames that are more reliable (and then actually happens).
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09-01-2019, 07:45   #5102
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 9 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers or patchy drizzle, in light northerly breezes (backing to westerly near west coast later). Rather cold especially in Ulster and Leinster. Highs will range from 6 C near east coast and in most of Ulster, to 10 C in Kerry and some other coastal areas of south and west.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or drizzle, cool. Lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest winds returning (40-60 km/hr in coastal north and west). Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather windy at times, outbreaks of rain (5 mm could fall), and temperatures steady 9 to 11 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Possibly quite unsettled and windy, with a growing risk of colder weather developing from the north or northeast at some point between Thursday 17th and Monday 21st. Temperatures will hang on near 8 C until this change occurs and could then fall sharply. As guidance is still very uneven on this transition, it's a question of probability of when the transition will begin. It could take longer than ten days but I believe it will happen before we reach the end of the following week. When the colder spell begins, it could last quite a while so be prepared for that possibility. At some point in the next two weeks to a month, a disruptive cold and snow event seems fairly likely. We can't really begin to guess how disruptive until the details show up on charts, every cold spell has its own quirks and singularities. Some are rather dry and produce only marginal amounts of snow (like March 2013 for example). Others rapidly produce large quantities of snow (like December 2010 and last February into early March). I would say the period from 24 January to 10 February is the highest risk period at the pace of change currently. Change is already beginning to show up in North America with eastern regions facing a sharp colder trend. The first signs of colder weather on any guidance show up around Friday 18th so that is probably the earliest that any wintry weather could strike, perhaps we could say the probability starts around 10% there and increases by about 5% a day until it levels off around 70% by 1st of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, quite cold and a very light snow turned heavier by late afternoon, so we now have 3 cms on the ground and more gradually accumulating, with freezing drizzle mixing in, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Once this moves through, we are moving back into milder weather as central and eastern regions turn sharply colder. A possible snowstorm for the Washington D.C. region looms for this weekend but this storm will be coming together out of just some dry cloud formations west of Mexico's Baja peninsula at the present time (a front spinning off the Pacific storm hitting further north). The flow is about to buckle allowing much colder air to sink south into the Great Lakes region, then it will be held in place there as storms rotate around from the remnants of Pacific storms until they reach Greenland. What we need to see for Ireland and Britain to turn colder will be for the Greenland region to develop higher pressures at all levels steering these storms back into the Canadian arctic, and allowing higher pressure near the north pole to slide south into the vacuum left by the rise in pressures near Iceland. This will force the persistent high near Ireland and northwest France to push west to avoid being battered by the southward moving arctic jet stream. This scenario keeps appearing on 10-15 day time scales on various models and will become a big deal for the weather when it finally begins to settle into shorter time frames that are more reliable (and then actually happens).
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10-01-2019, 07:18   #5103
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Thursday, 10 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Cloudy at first with some patchy drizzle or light rain, more widespread in central Leinster, then gradually brightening up around mid-day or afternoon, in light north to northwest winds. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals, rather cold, lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, occasional light rain, winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers, mild. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder in strong west to northwest winds, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, otherwise rain showers for most, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and generally a bit colder all through next week with winds mainly in a west to northwest direction, sometimes quite blustery, temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range most of the time, risk of some wintry showers on higher terrain. Beyond the weekend of 19th to 20th, it may turn even colder with winds from the north and sleety precipitation with a risk of accumulating snow at times. Details continue to vary from one model to another but there is certainly a growing trend towards much colder weather in the last ten days of January. How severe and how long it might last remain the big unknowns.

My local weather featured a steady light snowfall that eventually added up to about 10 cm, with the temperature around -2 C. This looks like continuing overnight then turning to drizzle as temperatures gradually warm up here to 2-4 C. I think we will lose this nice blanket of snow rather gradually over the following five days, meanwhile local hills and mountains have a lot heavier snow cover and will keep most of that for months now. A weak storm will develop over the south central U.S. on Friday and move towards North Carolina, bringing a 5 to 15 cm snow band into the Washington D.C. region this weekend. That snow might graze New York and Boston as the low tracks to their south, but amounts appear very small.
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11-01-2019, 07:37   #5104
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 11 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, patchy drizzle or light rain in parts of Munster, but a few breaks in the overcast later, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in north, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas. Highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers in a cold northwest wind, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold for the rest of the week, slight frosts returning, and risk of sleet by Saturday 19th. The week following that weekend will be perhaps even colder although at the moment the models seem to be indicating that a sharp frontal zone may form at times near Ireland with the much colder air more likely to dominate in Britain and especially northern and eastern parts of Britain. Given the time scale, this outlook could change to something more like Ireland being on the colder side of the frontal boundary more frequently, so I wouldn't stress these details too much, the main theme of most model guidance at the moment is for increasing risks of very cold weather as we move into late January.

My local weather on Thursday saw an end to the falling snow which has maintained its 10-12 cm depth despite a rather mild high of 2 C, fortunately no drizzle or rain fell despite the low cloud ceiling all day obscuring views of nearby hills. A weak disturbance in Texas is about to grow into a moderate snow-producing storm heading east towards North Carolina by Sunday. Snowfalls of 10-20 cm are likely from about northern Arkansas and southern Missouri east to Virginia and Maryland. This storm will probably miss New York and Boston or, at the very most leave them with a slight dusting of snow Monday. Much colder weather is flooding south behind this developing storm, with more chances for snowfall in the eastern U.S. for the rest of the month, although a somewhat variable regime with the occasional milder day. These storms are heading northeast then north towards Baffin Island rather than crossing the Atlantic, but some of them will spawn low pressure near southern Greenland that could eject lows towards Scotland, it's when that storm track drifts further south that active wintry weather might begin to affect Ireland in a week to ten days' time.
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12-01-2019, 07:10   #5105
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 12 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Breezy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in north by afternoon, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy at times, mild, drizzle or light rain in a few places, lows 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 to 7 C and highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder late in the day at least in north and west, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain at times overnight then becoming partly cloudy, with passing showers in a cold northwest wind, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, morning frosts. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground in north, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... There may be a frontal boundary event shaping up for (on or about) Saturday 19th with sleet or snow possible in north and east, more likely rain and drizzle in south and west, before colder air advancing from the east replaces the remnants of the Atlantic flow which will be in a much weakened state by then, rapidly pushed far to the south by the collapsing frontal boundary low. This would imply the return of dry weather for some period of time under higher pressure, frosts at night and rather cold in the daytime. An even colder northerly flow could then develop after a day or two of this intermediate cold, so in general, it looks like a steady decline in temperatures from mid-week through this outlook period to who knows when ... it's possible that a lengthy cold spell will develop, perhaps with brief interruptions because some guidance suggests that the Atlantic will keep trying to fight back, if rather feebly, once the colder air establishes dominance.

My local weather was cloudy, almost calm, and rather mild, with a bit of mist from the slowly melting snow (which is still about 8-10 cm deep on the ground). The high was about 4 C. Snow has developed as expected in the Mississippi valley and is spreading towards West Virginia overnight, then into Virginia and Maryland on Saturday afternoon. About 10 to 20 cm is expected (or has already fallen in the St. Louis area).
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13-01-2019, 07:30   #5106
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 13 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south. A few brief showers but only slight accumulations.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, breezy, lows 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder late in the day at least in north and west, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain at times overnight then becoming partly cloudy, with passing showers in a cold northwest wind, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C. Some showers will turn wintry over higher terrain, with hail at lower elevations, but there will also be more sunshine than most days this past few weeks.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, morning frosts. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground in north, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. A frontal wave may create a band of sleet or wet snow in some parts of Ulster and north Leinster, and this could begin to shift further west although timing is uncertain this far out.

SATURDAY ... There is some chance of the frontal bands of mixed precipitation lingering, but eventually a colder and dry air mass will probably push this disturbance away and bring clearing. Best estimate on temperatures would be in the 2 to 6 C range.

SUNDAY and MONDAY appear likely to remain cold and dry with some risk of isolated wintry showers feeding in to the south and east coasts on easterly breezes. Sharp frosts -5 to -2 C, and cold daytime highs near 4 C.

OUTLOOK remains rather uncertain as to details but most guidance has cold gradually intensifying with the risk of severe cold spells developing, so stay tuned as we await some sort of model consensus -- this will be a long, slow transition from the current mild spell to the expected cold regime, and I expect there might be one or two brief attempts made by the Atlantic to get back into the game, whether that leads to frontal snowfalls or one-day mild interludes remains to be seen.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy for a while, then the sun tried to break through low stratus cloud layers, while snow on the ground took another slight decrease to 5 cms. The high was about 5 C, this is a very mild air mass and with no snow I think we would be closer to about 9 or 10 degrees. A fairly widespread snowfall across the Ohio valley region has spread into Virginia and Maryland, also southern PA, with amounts of 10 to 20 cms expected. This storm will eventually become the disturbance that approaches Ireland from the west on Thursday and Friday, with most guidance now agreeing that it will be weak and running into a colder easterly wind from the Baltic region; so the last actions of this weather system will be to drop mixed precipitation over parts of Ireland and southern Wales, southwest England by Friday and possibly Saturday morning. Then it will drift further south and die out over the Biscay region or in southwest France possibly.

The European model is showing a very strong snowstorm for the eastern U.S. next Sunday into Monday (20th-21st) if you happen to have travel plans to New York or any other location in the eastern U.S., expect some disruptions if this comes about. Other guidance is not as bullish on the storm but not entirely in opposition either. This would likely move north towards west Greenland or Baffin Island rather than crossing the Atlantic (as of current guidance).
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14-01-2019, 07:16   #5107
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Monday, 14 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Breezy and still somewhat milder than average with brief passing showers and some brighter intervals too, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, moderate westerly winds, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing in west by late in the day, moderate southwest winds and highs 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder in the early morning hours and staying quite cold all day as winds veer to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of rain or hail at lower elevations, becoming mixed wintry showers on hills. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs only 6 or 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold, with scattered frosts in the morning. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, damp and drizzly with some risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C to the west of a frontal boundary, and 3 to 5 C to the east. This frontal boundary could set up a little further west so stay tuned for the details on that. The further west it drifts, the colder temperatures might become to the east.

SATURDAY ... Continued outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some eastern and southern counties, gradual clearing later, cold. Temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range and falling below freezing by evening.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then sunny but quite cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Light east winds becoming southeast later.

MONDAY and TUESDAY may see a brief return to milder weather if some guidance is correct, but it may also become very windy at times with squally showers. The best guess for temperatures is around 7 C but other outcomes are possible.

OUTLOOK ... Almost all guidance is converging on a windy and cold end to January with occasional sleet or snow possible, and temperatures well below average at times (close to freezing daytime and around -3 C or lower at night). Some charts on various models look quite stormy and while we can have little confidence in any details this far ahead, the frequency of these stormy charts on almost all guidance makes me think that it's inevitable that something of that sort will occur within the period 23 to 31 January or into early February.

My local weather was very drab on Sunday, just a low overcast and temperatures steady near 2 C. Our snow cover stopped its slow decline and remains at about 5 to 7 cms. There is about a metre of snow at the 900 m elevation in the mountains above us though. Meanwhile, the snowstorm continued all day Sunday and Washington DC ended up with 25 cms. This low has moved out into the Atlantic and remnants of it will arrive near western Ireland by Friday morning.
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Yesterday, 07:24   #5108
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Tuesday, 15 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing in west by late in the day, moderate southwest winds and highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, blustery southwest winds veering to west then northwest, turning quite cold after midnight, lows near 3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder in the early morning hours and staying quite cold all day as winds veer to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of rain or hail at lower elevations, becoming mixed wintry showers on hills. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs only 6 or 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold, with scattered frosts in the morning. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, damp and drizzly with some risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C to the west of a frontal boundary, and 4 to 6 C to the east.

SATURDAY ... Continued outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some eastern and southern counties, gradual clearing later, cold. Temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range and falling below freezing by evening.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then sunny but quite cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Light east winds becoming southeast later.

OUTLOOK ... Some guidance is advertising a return to milder and wet weather for a few days next week, while other guidance suggests any such change will be very brief and followed by colder east winds and mixed wintry showers in the flow off the Irish Sea. As there is such a wide array of outcomes we will just take note of the range and await further developments, but the colder portion of the guidance is not as cold as what we might be seeing later in the month, although cold enough to produce some snow in the mixture of showery precipitation.

My local weather remained cloudy and rather cold at about 2 C. The eastern regions of North America were dry and cold and will warm up gradually to near average temperatures, with some active weather expected again this coming weekend.

Sorry that I can't be very definitive about the trends next week but we are being bombarded with a steady stream of constantly changing guidance that keeps going off in new directions, earlier on Monday there was a set of model runs with intense windstorms next week, and that was more or less withdrawn from sight by this morning. It may return, though, so we can't rule out that outcome either. The uncertainty is being created by a set of unusual conditions in the arctic circulation which keeps the computer models in a perpetual state of confusion, since the eventual location of a polar vortex will determine the trends for several weeks to come. Right now, part of that is wobbling around over Greenland and northeast Canada, while another part has drifted into Scandinavia. Sometimes the models get chasing an idea of one portion taking over from the other, which is the underlying reason we are getting such variable guidance. We can be a little more certain that the mild spell is going to end tomorrow though, at least for the time being.
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Today, 07:19   #5109
M.T. Cranium
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 9,607
Wednesday, 16 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Some sunshine and cold westerly winds at first, showers becoming more widespread and taking a wintry turn over higher parts of the north and west. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 5 to 8 C, temperatures tending to drop in vicinity of heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing with widespread although not universal frost, most likely inland and in lower lying areas, lows -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, less windy but quite cold, highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, outbreaks of light rain trending to sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster, north/east Connacht and Leinster. Highs about 4 or 5 C for most, but could reach 7 to 9 C in west Munster.

SATURDAY ... Some sleety showers lingering in the morning, more confined to south and east then clearing by afternoon, cold. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs about 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... There remains some uncertainty about the trends beyond Saturday, the most likely scenario is for this modified cold air mass to linger with slight fluctuations in temperature as weak weather systems ripple along from northwest to southeast, but there is some chance of a colder trend too with east winds developing. Eventually it seems likely that a colder spell will develop as the Atlantic is only strong enough to send in very weak frontal systems without much if any warmth, so that there are two different processes that could lead to sleet or snow, easterly "sea effect" showers, or frontal mixed precipitation. I have the feeling that more reliable model output will be available next week once the shock effects of the changes at higher levels work their way through the system and the models have the usual less complicated tasks to process the data. What that more reliable scenario will be is anybody's guess at this point, almost all possibilities are on the table given the mix of players on the field.

My local weather continued overcast and got a bit colder, with the high only reaching -2 C. We are expecting a similar day today and then some light snow on Thursday. The east coast of North America is gearing up for some mixed sleety precipitation that will fall as heavy snow over higher ground inland from the major cities, but could be a mix of types near the coast. Something to mark on the calendar: if skies are clear on the night of 20th-21st (this coming Sunday night into Monday morning) a total eclipse of the moon will be visible in both Europe and most of North America. The midpoint of this lunar eclipse will be 0517 GMT Monday, or just after midnight in the eastern time zone of North America. For Irish readers, this means the opening stages of the eclipse would be after 0400h Monday and at that point the moon will be fairly high in the southwestern sky, even towards the end of the event around 0600h it will be well above the horizon setting in the west. North American viewers will catch this spectacle (where skies are clear) with the Moon high up in the southern sky (or in my western time zone, in the southeast and reasonably high up for viewing).
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