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July 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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    #62
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Finner Camp once again first in the battle of the 4 stations to earn a point for Ulster. But I don’t think it's max temperature is a record. Finner reminds of the Grandpa character in the Mrs Brown sitcom.

    The battle of the provinces Day 25.

    Connaught Athenry 22,5°C Markee 22.5°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 21.9°C Finner 23.1C

    As Finner has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 13 U. 12.


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    #63
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    It is once again that our 2 provinces come up neck and neck to each other in our bonus question.

    The battle of the provinces Day 26.

    Connaught Athenry 18.5°C Markee 19.9°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 21.0°C Finner 20.8C

    As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 13 U. 13.

    Best of luck to Limerick who hurls against Kilkenny in probably the hottest place in Ireland, Croke Park in Dublin.


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    #64
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT rounds off at 16.5 (from 16.46) but seems more likely to drift down now, could finish on 16.3 perhaps.


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    #65
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    With 27 days down and only 4 more days left it is Ulster in the lead again in our bonus question.

    The battle of the provinces Day 27.

    Connaught Athenry 19.1°C Markee 18.6°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 19.8°C Finner 18.1C

    As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 13 U. 14.

    Mt. Dillon was the warmest place in Ireland at 22.1°C.


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    #66
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    With just 3 days left to play for it's neck and neck for the two provinces for our bonus question.

    The battle of the provinces Day 28.

    Connaught Athenry 19.6°C Markee 17.3°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 18.4°C Finner 16.5

    As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 14 U. 14.

    The weather was much cooler over most of Ireland yesterday but quite a few stations in Leinster made to just over 20°C with Phoenix Park almost 21°.


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    #67
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT now on 16.3 C (from 16.34) and likely to finish either there or 16.2.

    MAX remains 26.6 and MIN 3.6.

    PRC has fallen back to 88% of normal with this past week 56% (essentially dry in the east, to rather wet in the north/west). This may gain a bit from predicted rainfalls tonight and Tuesday, but should finish no higher than 95% to perhaps normal at the final bell.

    SUN now at 104% with this past week just under the normal amount (98% from 587/600). Rather cloudy these last three days so it seems likely to finish out close to 100%.

    Bonus question as tracked by JPmarn has reached a 14-14 deadlock.

    The August thread will be posted soon, the bonus will be the utlimate battle for all-Ireland supremacy and whoever wins Connacht vs Ulster can use all their players against the full line-up of Leinster, same tie breakers in play (2nd highest vs 2nd, etc, unlikely with that number for mins to get into action).


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    #68
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ulster has 20.5c ballyhaise and Athenry 20.something c.

    A super over may be required


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    #69
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    On the third last day it is Connaught back in the lead. I am hoping that Ulster would win another point to make it 16-15 which I put in at the start of the month. Now down to business.

    The battle of the provinces Day 29.

    Connaught Athenry 20.8°C Markee 19.3°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 20.4°C Finner 17.9

    As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Connaught making it
    C. 15 U. 14.

    Temperature figures are taken from Met.ie website and yesterday's weather page. It is usually about 9am when figures are fully available. All our monthly contest results rely on data from Met Éireann and nowhere else. The result of day 31 will be published on the 1st of August and a few days afterwards when the result of this contest is official. It is often that M.T. would post up preliminary results a few days early.


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    #70
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,340 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    On the third last day it is Connaught back in the lead. I am hoping that Ulster would win another point to make it 16-15 which I put in at the start of the month. Now down to business.

    The battle of the provinces Day 29.

    Connaught Athenry 20.8°C Markee 19.3°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 20.4°C Finner 17.9

    As Athenry has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 15 U. 14.

    Temperature figures are taken from Met.ie website and yesterday's weather page. It is usually about 9am when figures are fully available. All our monthly contest results rely on data from Met Éireann and nowhere else. The result of day 31 will be published on the 1st of August and a few days afterwards when the result of this contest is official. It is often that M.T. would post up preliminary results a few days early.

    A point awarded to Connacht you mean ;)


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    #71
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ballyhaise 19.8c day 30 could a winner


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    #72
    waterways
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭waterways


    pauldry wrote: »
    Ballyhaise 19.8c day 30 could a winner


    Confirmed


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    #73
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    We put Waterways and Pauldry's confirmation that Ballyhaise was the winning station into contention. On this penultimate day it is neck and neck again.

    The battle of the provinces Day 30.

    Connaught Athenry 19.3°C Markee 17.5°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 19.8°C Finner 18.2C

    As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 15 U. 15.

    I personally hope the Connaught will win today. Anyone that guessed 15-16 or 16-15 should be excited.


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    #74
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Looking at the latest reports with Ballyhaise at 20°C and Athenry only 17°C it looks like the answer to our bonus question is 15 -16 in favour of Ulster. I will have the last post to confirm this tomorrow morning,


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    #75
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think you're right about Ulster winning 16-15. For the August contest then it will be Leinster vs Ulster, and we'll peer into the murky realm of Northern Ireland temps at this link:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk

    each day (after 18z or 1900h) to get NI station maxima to go along with Ballyhaise, Finner and Malin Head.

    This map doesn't include some of the Connacht stations so it won't be very helpful today.

    I am going into the August contest thread now to alert people to what's likely to happen. As mentioned over there,

    deadline for August contest is held back to 1500h 1st of August to give people time to consider their bonus question answers.


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    #76
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,878 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ulster has definitely won. There was a veil of cloud over the West and temperatures were 18c in the highest areas.

    So 21c in Ulster beats this


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    #77
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,475 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Just to wrap up July's Battle of the provinces for our bonus question. It is just a confirmation on the winner but there was just 0.6° difference in getting that final point.
    The battle of the provinces Day 31.

    Connaught Athenry 20.5°C Markee 18.1°C
    Ulster Ballyhaise 21.1°C Finner 18.1C

    As Ballyhaise has the highest temperature of the four stations a point is awarded to Ulster making it
    C. 15 U. 16.
    Congratulations to anyone for guessed that Ulster has won and the players who had the exact score line. Next month the All Ireland Final Leinster v Ulster on the August contest thread.


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    #78
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Only waterways predicted a win for Ulster, 14-17, equal error to three who said 16-15 Connacht. (Jpmarn, mickger844posts, sryanbruen).

    So it's now official for August, the final stage of the all-Ireland temperature showdown will be Leinster vs Ulster.


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    #79
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final values (to be confirmed tomorrow from MS) ...

    IMT 16.3

    MAX 26.6

    MIN 3.6

    PRC 91%

    SUN 100%

    Bonus 15-16


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    #80
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The Monthly Summary confirmed the preliminary results except for a slight adjustment to SUN

    Confirmed values (IMT 16.3, MAX 26.6, MIN 3.6, PRC 091, SUN 103, Connacht vs Ulster15-16).


    Final scoring for July 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ C vs U___ TOTAL __ (B)


    Artane2002 _____________ 23 _ 20*_ 18 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 06 ______ 91 _____ (16)

    pauldry _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 85 _____ (16)

    Tae laidir _______________ 19 _ 14*_ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 08 ______ 83 _____ (17)

    sryanbruen ______________15 _ 17*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 10 ______ 82 _____ (20)

    Sunflower3 ______________24 _ 08*_ 16 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 09 ______ 79 _____ (16)

    mickger844posts _________ 23 _ 10*_ 11 _ 14 _ 09 ____ 10 ______ 77 _____ (17)

    200motels ______________ 25 _ 06*_ 19 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 77 _____ (19)

    Bsal ___________________ 21 _ 06*_ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 07 ______ 77 _____ (17)


    ___ NormaL ____________ 15 _ 17*_ 16 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 08 ______ 77 _____ (17)


    DOCARCH _______________21 _ 06*_ 20 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 07 ______ 76 _____ (14)

    MrSkinner _______________18 _ 10*_ 16 _ 15 _ 08 ____ 08 ______ 75 _____ (14)


    ____ Con Sensus _________19 _ 08*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 07 ______ 74 _____ (16)


    YanSno _________________18 _ 03*_ 19 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 73 _____ (16)

    Adam240610 ____________ 18 _ 15*_ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ____ 07 ______ 72 _____ (17)

    Kindred Spirit (-5) ________ 22 _ 11*_ 14 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 07__76-5=71 _____ (12)

    Gonzo ___ (-3) ___________14 _ 18*_ 11 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 09__73-3=70 _____ (19)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 20 _ 02*_ 19 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 07 ______ 69 _____ (14)

    JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 19 _ 14*_ 13 _ 09 _ 06 ____ 07__68-2=66 _____ (16)

    Rikand _________________ 22 _ 02*_ 14 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 05 ______ 65 _____ (14)

    Dasa29 ________________ 13 _ 17*_ 09 _ 12 _ 06 ____ 08 ______ 65 _____ (15)

    johnmac _______________ 13 _ 08*_ 14 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 06 ______ 62 _____ (14)

    Dacogawa ______________ 24 _ 00*_ 15 _ 10 _ 10 ____ 02 ______ 61 _____ (11)

    waterways ______________ 17 _ 04*_ 14 _ 07 _ 06 ____ 10 ______ 58 _____ (17)

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 14 _ 02*_ 14 _ 09 _ 09 ____ 09 ______ 57 _____ (16)

    Joe Public _______________17 _ 12*_ 09 _ 06 _ 07 ____ 05 ______ 56 _____ (11)

    Rameire __(-3) __________ 16 _ 03*_ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 03 __57-3=54_____ (12)

    Jpmarn _________________25 _ 01*_ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ____ 10 ______ 50 _____ (17)


    _______________________________________________________________

    Notes:

    MAX scored from minimum progression as ten raw scores of zero, highest raw score was 17/20 so full boost in play, one forecast at each score from 20 down to 6 (which had three tied), then a fair distribution from 4 down to 0. (ties jogged that around a bit, Normal and Con score same as some forecaster(s) from that result).

    BONUS -- as nobody had exactly 15-16, scores start from either side of that and work down, so with just one on higher side for Ulster (14-17), three had equal error 16-15 for ten points, and 17-14 worth nine, 18-13 gets eight, etc. Waterways carries tie breaker for superbonus points (after August, top June to August bonus score gets two superbonus, second gets one). In June, everyone but dasa29 has a tiebreaker for correct province. So waterways has 2 correct provinces, dasa29 has zero, everyone else has one.

    After the July total score is a number in brackets which is the total bonus score June + July tracking the superbonus points for August.

    =============================================

    Scoring was relatively high for July, I don't recall a month where all scores were over 50 before, and congrats to Artane2002 (91), and Pauldry, tae laidir and sryanbruen who were above 80 points.

    Annual scoring update follows soon.

    =============================================

    (Forecasts)

    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ C vs U


    mickger844posts _________ 16.5 _ 28.1 _ 4.5 _ 088 _ 108 ____ 16-15

    Jpmarn _________________16.3 _ 29.2 _ 4.9 _ 055 _ 135 ____ 16-15

    200motels ______________ 16.3 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 108 _ 098 ____ 17-14

    Dacogawa ______________ 16.2 _ 29.8 _ 3.1 _ 075 _ 105 ____ 24-07

    Sunflower3 _____________ 16.2 _ 28.2 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 19-12

    pauldry ________________ 16.2 _ 27.0 _ 3.1 _ 109 _ 099 ____ 17-14

    Artane2002 _____________16.1 _ 26.3 _ 3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 20-11

    Rikand _________________16.0 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 21-10

    Kindred Spirit (-5) _______ 16.0 _ 28.0 _ 3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

    Bsal ___________________15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12

    DOCARCH ______________ 15.9 _ 28.6 _ 3.6 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 19-12

    M.T. Cranium ____________15.8 _ 29.0 _ 3.5 _ 085 _ 115 ____ 19-12


    ____ Con Sensus _________15.7 _ 28.2 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 19-12


    JCXBXC __ (-2) __________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 2.9 _ 110 _ 125 ____ 19-12

    Tae laidir _______________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 084 _ 107 ____ 18-13

    YanSno _________________15.6 _ 28.9 _ 3.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 17-14

    MrSkinner _______________15.6 _ 28.1 _ 4.0 _ 090 _ 111 ____ 18-13

    Adam240610 ____________ 15.6 _ 27.6 _ 3.1 _ 073 _ 113 ____ 19-12

    waterways ______________ 15.5 _ 28.7 _ 3.4 _ 068 _ 122 ____ 14-17

    Joe Public _______________15.5 _ 27.9 _ 2.5 _ 065 _ 120 ____ 21-10

    Rameire __(-3) __________ 15.4 _ 28.9 _ 3.0 _ 098 _ 115 ____ 23 - 8


    ___ NormaL ____________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 4.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 18-13


    sryanbruen _____________ 15.3 _ 25.7 _ 3.2 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 16-15

    BLIZZARD7 _____________ 15.2 _ 29.0 _ 3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 17-14

    Gonzo ___ (-3) __________ 15.2 _ 25.9 _ 2.7 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 17-14

    johnmac ________________15.1 _ 28.2 _ 3.0 _ 102 _ 098 ____ 20-11

    Dasa29 ________________ 15.1 _ 27.5 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 125 ____ 18-13

    _______________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus (median) is 13th ranked of 25 values.


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    #81
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,326 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to July)

    (order is now best 5/7, last month's rank 4/6 in brackets)
    __ (total rank for total score shown in brackets after total score.)


    _(rank) _ best 5/7 _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul ___ 2019 TOTAL


    _ 01 (01) __ 382 __ Tae laidir ___________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 __ 64 __ 83 ___ 505 (1)

    _t02 (04) __ 350 __ Sunflower3 __________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 __ 60 __ 58 __ 79 ___ 460 (2)

    _t02 (02) __ 350 __ waterways __________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 __ 56 __ 84 __ 58 ___ 425 (9)

    _ 04 (06) __ 347 __ sryanbruen __________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 __ 86 __ 70 __ 82 ___ 430 (t6)

    _ 05 (05) __ 344 __ mickger844posts _____ 65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 __ 65 __ 69 __ 77 ___ 424 (t10)

    _ 06 (13) __ 342 __ Artane2002 _________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 __ 66 __ 73 __ 91 ___ 436 (t3)

    _ 07 (08) __ 337 __ DOCARCH ___________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 __ 67 __ 49 __ 76 ___ 434 (5)

    _ 08 (03) __ 336 __ john mac ___________ 49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 __ 39 __ 83 __ 62 ___ 424 (t10)

    _ 09 (10) __ 333 __ 200motels __________ 48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 __ 66 __ 49 __ 77 ___ 430 (t6)


    _(10)(10) __ 331 __ Con Sensus__________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 __ 57 __ 67 __ 74 ___ 441 (3)


    _t10 (t11)__ 328 __ MrSkinner ___________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 __ 55 __ 64 __ 75 ___ 430 (t6)

    _t10 (07) __ 328 __ JCX BXC ____________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 __ 66 __ 65 __ 66 ___ 419 (t13)

    _ 12 (t14)__ 327 __ Bsal ________________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 __ 56 __ 59 __ 77 ___ 419 (t13)

    _ 13 (t11)__ 325 __ Adam240610 ________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 __ 59 __ 52 __ 72 ___ 436 (t3)

    _ 14 (22) __ 318 __ pauldry _____________55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 __ 53 __ 56 __ 85 ___ 422 (12)

    _ 15 (18) __ 317 __ Kindred Spirit ________ 58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 __ 49 __ 20 __ 71 ___ 381 (21)

    _ 16 (17) __ 313 __ dasa29 _____________48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 __ 62 __ 53 __ 65 ___ 404 (17)

    _ 17 (09) __ 312 __ Rameire ____________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 __ 61 __ 48 __ 54 ___ 408 (t15)

    _ 18 (t14)__ 311 __ Dacogawa __________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 __ 41 __ 70 __ 61 ___ 393 (20)


    _(19)(t22) __310 __ NormaL ____________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 __ 58 __ 57 __ 77 ___ 407 (17)


    _ 19 (16) __ 307 __ Jpmarn _____________69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 __ 58 __ 58 __ 50 ___ 400 (18)

    _ 20 (20) __ 306 __ Rikand _____________ 62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 __ 48 __ 64 __ 65 ___ 408 (t15)

    _ 21 (21) __ 305 __ M.T. Cranium ________ 45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 __ 57 __ 66 __ 69 ___ 395 (19)

    _ 22 (19) __ 301 __ Joe Public ___________ 62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 __ 60 __ 71 __ 56 ___ 369 (22)

    _ 23 (23) __ 275 __ YanSno _____________ 62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 __ 58 __ 38 __ 73 ___ 275 (23)

    _ 24 (24) __ 226 __ BLIZZARD7 __________ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 __ 32 __ 49 __ 57 ___ 244 (24)

    _ too few ________ Gonzo _______________--- __ ---__ --- __ --- __ --- __ 64 __ 70 ___ 134 (25)

    _ too few ________ sdanseo _____________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 81

    _ too few ________ bazlers ______________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 50

    _ too few ________ Tazio _______________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 44

    _ too few ________ derekon _____________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 39
    _________________________________________________________________________

    (Note, in working on this new annual table, noticed that last month the order of scoring as shown was in error from around 4th to 7th places (consensus should have been higher and some of the other entries are out of order although that was against total score not best 4 of 6 all of which were shown correctly).

    Tae laidir holds on to a lead in both categories, the four who scored 80 or higher, as well as sunflower at 79 in July, moved up a few ranks in both contests. JPmarn was the only July entrant who used the July score in dropping two low scores from total, everyone else retains the two they used last month.


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