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17-01-2010, 06:37   #826
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 17 January, 2010
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TODAY will be partly cloudy with some showers eventually developing in western and northern counties, moderate SW winds 20-30 mph, and highs in the 8-10 C range.

TONIGHT will be misty or foggy with some light frost developing, patches of black ice in a few spots, as any showers die out. Lows will range from -2 to +2 C.

MONDAY will remain partly cloudy to overcast and not quite as mild with a light south to southeast wind, and highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY will become a bit colder with a frosty start, lows near -3 C, and weak sunshine fading behind thickening high cloud, winds SE 10-25 mph, and highs of 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY is looking quite windy and milder again with rain at times, becoming heavier late in the day. Highs will be near 10 C.

THURSDAY will be windy and mild with periods of rain, highs near 12 C. Winds may reach S 30-50 mph at times.

The further outlook calls for continuing rather mild weather with intervals of settled weather and a bit more rain at times, and this seems the more likely trend for the foreseeable future.

Note, the Tuesday slight chill is a bit of the speculated "return to winter" easterly sourced air mass, but taking quite an indirect route through France, not really a deep cold air mass or a direct hit; even eastern England seems to be about to avoid that narrowly as the Russian cold air stays further east in Germany and Norway. However, this could change so keep it in mind that a slight return to winter is a low-probability outcome mid-week.

It has remained very mild here, the entire day was sunny and highs were near 11 C, but it has started to rain now (10:40 p.m.).
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17-01-2010, 08:34   #827
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The further outlook calls for continuing rather mild weather with intervals of settled weather and a bit more rain at times, and this seems the more likely trend for the foreseeable future.
*yawns*
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18-01-2010, 05:25   #828
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TODAY will see some light rain at times in parts of Ulster, but it appears likely that dry, even sunny conditions may prevail in the south, at least at times, while the winds slowly diminish and back to southerly 10-20 mph. Highs will reach about 9-10 C.

TONIGHT look for increasing cloudiness and drizzle or light rain beginning after midnight, as winds back further to SE 10-20 mph. There will be fog by morning over some higher ground.

TUESDAY will see increasing southeast winds, light rain or drizzle, and a rather chilly feel due to the winds (SE 25-40 mph) despite similar temperatures to today (highs 7-9 C).

WEDNESDAY will find these stronger winds diminished by early morning, with fog or mist creeping in from the east. The first half of the day will be somewhat chilly with calm winds and fog, mist and drizzle in the air, temperatures near 5 C. The later part of the day into evening will become windy (S 15-30 mph) with light rain spreading into the west.

THURSDAY will be windy and mild with moderate or even heavy rainfalls of at least 25 mms, with winds SSW 30-50 mph and highs near 10-11 C.

FRIDAY will see showers ending and partial clearing, mild, highs near 10 C.

NEXT WEEKEND will probably be a bit cooler again with some dry intervals. The weather pattern setting up for next week looks like a battleground between Atlantic mild air and easterly cold winds; it's too early to call a winner or perhaps it will be a continual frontal zone with several changes from mild to cold. With stormier weather likely later in that week, it could get interesting again.

We've continued to see very mild weather here, Sunday was cloudy with occasional light rain and highs near 10 C.
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19-01-2010, 06:53   #829
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TODAY will be cloudy with light rain or drizzle spreading gradually from west to east, although it may take much of the morning to reach the east coast. Winds will be increasing to SE 20-35 mph giving a somewhat raw feel to the day despite similar temperatures to yesterday, with highs near 8-10 C.

TONIGHT will continue drizzly or foggy with the winds gradually decreasing and turning more easterly, with lows of 2-4 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a rather chilly day with low cloud, some drizzle or fog, possibly a few snow grains on higher ground in Ulster, and winds mostly light and northeasterly. By evening a stronger south wind and milder air will be returning to western counties. Other than that, temperatures are likely to be stalled in the 3-5 C range all day.

THURSDAY will turn windy and mild with periods of rain, winds S 30-50 mph, and highs of 10-11 C.

FRIDAY will be showery with some afternoon clearing, and still on the mild side with highs of 8-10 C.

THE WEEKEND is looking a bit iffy but expect cooling in stages with some possibility of sharp frost by Sunday morning, after a cloudy to partly cloudy day Saturday. Winds will be light and from mainly a northeast to east direction. This colder air mass may try to hang around for Monday-Tuesday but the models are very undecided on how long it stays, and whether it will have much wintry bite, or just a sharp frost at night, cool in the daytime feel.

We have continued to have very mild weather here; after some very strong southerly winds last night (around 0600 local time or 14z) the rest of the day was mostly dry, sometimes sunny and quite mild with a high equalling our daily record of 12 C.

I think there may be more clarity about colder weather prospects (weekend to mid-week next week) by about Thursday, but there is bound to be plenty of speculation about it in the meantime.
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19-01-2010, 18:40   #830
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UPDATE _ Tuesday, 6:40 p.m.
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I just wanted to draw more attention to the potential for strong SW to W winds late Thursday with a frontal passage, western counties may see some gusts to 70 mph between 8 p.m. and 4 a.m. on Thursday night into early Friday morning. It doesn't look quite as windy for the eastern half of the country.

The scales seem to be tilting towards renewed cold from about Sunday to Wednesday of next week. At the moment, it appears to me as though the cold will be fairly dry this time, as an arctic ridge forms from Norway southwest through the UK and Ireland. There may be some overnight lows well down into the -8 C range, and daytime highs may be held down to near zero in this period. Atlantic energy will be trying to push back and will probably succeed around Friday 29th and the following weekend, which could turn out quite windy from a west to northwest direction.

Beyond that, my hunch for February is that with the El Nino pattern now well established in a more conventional location than the "west based" December circulation, the Atlantic will be at least moderately energetic so that with some polar highs likely to be in the mix, the most likely outcome for the month would be near average with variations either side of normal, and some cold spells, some very mild days. The tendency might be for the cold weather to come shortly after the first in the opening week to ten days, and for the mildest weather to come around mid-month and again near the end of the month, with a second cold spell possible around the 20th.
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20-01-2010, 07:36   #831
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TODAY will continue cloudy and cool with a little more light rain in Ulster mainly, although skies may begin to clear gradually from the southwest and bring some sunny intervals followed by widely scattered showers. Highs will vary from 4-5 C in the northeast to 7-9 C in the southwest.

TONIGHT will tend to start clear, turn foggy then any slight frost should dissipate as stronger southerly winds and rain arrive. Winds will increase to south 20-40 mph by morning. Lowest temperatures around midnight will range from -1 to +4 C.

THURSDAY will be windy and milder with periods of rain, probably about 15-25 mms on average, with winds SSW 30-50 mph (higher gusts by evening in Connacht), and highest temperatures 10-12 C.

FRIDAY will feature gradual clearing again with just a few morning showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C, but the evening will quickly turn frosty with black ice likely to return.

SATURDAY will be a cool, largely dry day with variable cloud, a frosty and icy morning start (lows near -3 C) and light winds although highest temperatures no higher than 4-6 C.

SUNDAY will turn colder again with variable amounts of cloud, a light east to northeast wind, and some risk of localized snow in eastern counties (something we can fine tune a lot closer to the time). Lows will be down around -7 C and highs in the frigid range of -2 to +2 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY, Ireland stays in the colder air mass but it seems likely to be decaying over the region rather than receiving fresh reinforcements from the east. This should make it largely dry and perhaps even sunny by day, clear and very cold at night. The temperature range will probably be something like -8 to +1 C for most rural areas away from the coasts, somewhat more temperate near the sea. The week will probably turn much milder around Thursday-Friday and could then become quite windy and showery towards the final weekend of the month.

Our warm spell continues. It actually felt a bit warm out today with a high near 13 C. It was cloudy but rain held off, just a few spits and nothing measured here. This warm spell is supposed to last to about Tuesday of next week.
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21-01-2010, 05:35   #832
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Thursday, 21 January, 2010
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TODAY will be milder with periods of rain, 10-20 mms for most locations, and highs near 10 or 11 C. Winds will reach SSE 25-45 mph and may become more gusty in Connacht by afternoon.

TONIGHT will see the rain tapering to showers with some clearing possible in western counties before sunrise, winds easing to SW then W 15-30 mph, and lows of about 5-7 C.

FRIDAY will start out cloudy with a few leftover showers in eastern counties, but there will be sunny intervals in the morning in western counties, and generally sunny or at least partly cloudy skies across Ireland by afternoon. Highs for the day will be around 8 or 9 C.

SATURDAY may have a widespread light frost to begin, but the day should feature some sunshine despite patchy higher cloud, and light winds, with the temperature range -1 to +8 C.

From Sunday to Wednesday, the latest indications show only a modified degree of cold extending west from a source over Scandinavia, as high pressure links up from that cold centre to a milder centre in the central Atlantic. There was quite a disparity in model runs on Wednesday, but the latest runs are closing in on this modified solution.

What it should mean (but still subject to some uncertainty) is that from Sunday to mid-week, it will be mainly dry, somewhat cold at night especially, but not a cold spell of arctic proportions so that daytime readings will struggle up to near normal readings of 7 or 8 C, with light southeast winds tending more to south or southwest in western counties which may remain a bit milder throughout.

The dry spell may continue for several more days if the central ridge stays fairly close to Ireland despite shifting further north out to the west of Ireland, a development which will turn the winds around more to the west and then northwest, but within the same general temperature range. At any point around late Friday 29th to about 1st of February, strong winds expected to develop near Iceland over towards the Faeroes could drop south and impact parts of Ireland, more likely Donegal and other northern counties.

Since these developments are still over a week away, we have plenty of time to fine tune this, but really from Sunday of this weekend onwards, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the outcome, and colder weather cannot yet be ruled out entirely. The chances of snow seem to be diminishing and would be about one in four given the look of the various models at present.

Where I live, the mild spell continued on Wednesday although it was a few degrees cooler at about 8 or 9 C for the high, and despite a general overcast there was no rain. A strong storm developed further south and slammed into California bringing locally very heavy rains and strong winds. That storm is heading east towards Nevada and Utah.
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22-01-2010, 21:17   #833
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UPDATE _ Friday, 22 January, 2010 _ 9:30 p.m.
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Due to the interruption in boards.ie service, I was unable to post a forecast earlier today. Watch for an update around 11 p.m. based on the latest available information.

Thursday brought some cloudy, mild weather to my location, but today the sun has broken through and it's quite spring-like, 11 C and blue skies with dense cirrus patches, light east winds.

Back in a while ...
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22-01-2010, 23:00   #834
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Just a brief forecast that will be updated at the usual time (0530-0600) ...

TONIGHT will become foggy in many parts with black ice a problem on the roads, as lows reach -3 C in rural and outlying suburban areas, -1 to +2 C in the milder mid-town and coastal locations.

SATURDAY will find some sunshine here and there, with the fog tending to lift slowly to low cloud before dispersing entirely (and it may not do so at all in a few inland valley locations). Highs will reach 7 C with any sunshine, but could be held down to 3-4 C by low cloud in some places.

SUNDAY will see more extensive morning fog and low cloud, lows around -1 to +2 C and highs only 5-7 C under partly to mostly cloudy skies, some light drizzle in places. Winds all weekend will be very light.

MONDAY could see another frosty and icy start with mid-day sunshine boosting temperatures from morning lows near -4 C to afternoon highs of about 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY look to be milder with a light southerly wind, some cloud could reach western counties and rain would be moving by offshore mostly, but most of the country should remain dry with the temperature range about 2 to 10 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY expect the winds to become more northwesterly as high pressure actually moves west but stays close enough to keep skies partly cloudy to clear; the temperature range will stay around 2 to 9 C.

NEXT WEEKEND is being advertised as an extension of this settled period but it wouldn't surprise me if this breaks down eventually to a more windy and showery pattern with the wind direction likely to be about WNW.

Will update around 0530 or so.
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23-01-2010, 06:17   #835
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Forecast remains almost unchanged from the above.

TODAY will remain foggy with widespread black ice on roads in many areas, until about 9 to 10 a.m., after which some sunshine will break through, although some patchy low cloud will remain, with very light winds. Highs will reach about 7 C in most places, but could be held down to about 4 C by low cloud in a few spots.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog redeveloping, and lows around -2 C on average, so that more black ice is possible.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with some patchy light drizzle or fog, afternoon sunny breaks, and highs 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be quite cold, with a sharp frost likely in the morning (lows near
-4 C) and hazy sunshine in most areas by mid-day, but some risk of light rain or sleet. Highs will be near 6 C.

TUESDAY will be milder with variable amounts of cloud and light southerly winds. The temperature range will be about -1 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue fairly mild with light winds, and partly cloudy skies, temperatures ranging from -1 to 8 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be similar but with a somewhat stronger west to northwest breeze, and a temperature range of about -2 to 8-10 C.

NEXT WEEKEND may bring some stronger breezes or W to NW winds, and it may turn a bit colder with showers possible.
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23-01-2010, 08:40   #836
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Saturday, 23 January, 2010
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Forecast remains almost unchanged from the above.

TODAY will remain foggy with widespread black ice on roads in many areas, until about 9 to 10 a.m., after which some sunshine will break through, although some patchy low cloud will remain, with very light winds. Highs will reach about 7 C in most places, but could be held down to about 4 C by low cloud in a few spots.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog redeveloping, and lows around -2 C on average, so that more black ice is possible.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with some patchy light drizzle or fog, afternoon sunny breaks, and highs 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be quite cold, with a sharp frost likely in the morning (lows near
-4 C) and hazy sunshine in most areas by mid-day, but some risk of light rain or sleet. Highs will be near 6 C.

TUESDAY will be milder with variable amounts of cloud and light southerly winds. The temperature range will be about -1 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue fairly mild with light winds, and partly cloudy skies, temperatures ranging from -1 to 8 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be similar but with a somewhat stronger west to northwest breeze, and a temperature range of about -2 to 8-10 C.

NEXT WEEKEND may bring some stronger breezes or W to NW winds, and it may turn a bit colder with showers possible.
what about northern areas under cloud its still -3c here and its actaully cloudy now.. i cannot see the temp getting any higher than 4c... though i doubt it!
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23-01-2010, 13:17   #837
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No sign of the fog lifting on the Meath/ Dublin border today. Is there anything worst than fog during the day?
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23-01-2010, 19:49   #838
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Another fine forcast M.T.
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24-01-2010, 06:32   #839
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TODAY will start out with widespread freezing fog and low cloud, and possibly some sleet or drizzle in eastern Ulster, this spreading towards Dublin although probably not giving much accumulation. The sun may break through the murk in some south central counties, while further west the fog will tend to break earlier but higher cloud is moving in there. This will eventually spread in some very light rain at least into the southwest if not a bit further east. Highs will vary from 2-4 C in many eastern and central locations with persistent fog, to 7-8 C further west.

TONIGHT will see variable amounts of cloud, freezing fog returning, and lows generally around -4 C in rural areas, -1 C in urban and coastal locations.

MONDAY will have some sunshine breaking through low cloud, and it may be slightly milder for most with highs in the 6-9 C range.

TUESDAY will turn milder with considerable cloud, mostly higher levels letting through some sunshine, especially in the southeast, but there could also be some drizzle at times in Connacht. Highs will reach 10-11 C after a rather chilly start (lows near -2 C). Winds will be light or near calm.

WEDNESDAY, the winds will pick up again from a NW direction. It will remain rather mild with a temperature range of -2 to 8 C.

THURSDAY will find stronger NW winds and showers returning, with the temperature range near zero to 6 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY may become quite windy from the west to northwest, with frequent showers, wind gusts to about 45 mph, and temperatures rather chilly (1-5 C). There could be some snow again on higher hills.

There could be quite a strong push of cold air south across eastern parts of the UK around this time, but it seems that Ireland will only get a glancing blow before milder westerly winds return by about Sunday-Tuesday in the period 31 Jan to 2 Feb.

Meanwhile, we had a mostly cloudy but dry day here with some clearing towards sunset, and highs of about 8 C (Saturday).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 24-01-2010 at 08:29.
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25-01-2010, 07:17   #840
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TODAY will remain quite cold with some places staying in fog or low cloud much of the day, and struggling to reach +2 C as a result ... a few locations, mainly around the coasts, will clear and see milder readings near 6 C.

TONIGHT will see widespread freezing fog and very cold temperatures returning, with lows near -5 C and possibly a bit colder in a few spots.

TUESDAY will have milder air aloft but with the light winds, it may be difficult to remove the cold surface layers. So it seems likely to be similar to today although where the fog does clear it could get as mild as 8-9 C. However, many places may struggle to reach +3 C. The fog may get thicker by afternoon and evening as higher pressure sits overhead drifting westward.

WEDNESDAY, expect a cold start but with freezing fog breaking up to low cloud and drizzle, so that there may be some serious icing problems in the early morning. Then with the air finally moving as winds become NW 15-30 mph, the air will briefly turn milder near the surface, and so temperatures will rise from near -2 C to near 8 C by afternoon. Periods of rain will follow by late in the day.

THURSDAY will see a few showers mixing with sleet or snow on hills, but amounts may be slight. Winds will become NW 25-45 mph and temperatures will be colder again, although a bit above freezing for most places, in the range of +1 to +5 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and quite cold with passing showers of sleet or snow, lows near -2 C and highs near 3 to 5 C.

SATURDAY will be similar although possibly quite windy at times, then SUNDAY should see milder air returning as winds back around to the west.

The following week gives widely different outcomes on the two major forecast models, either it will turn very cold, or keep getting milder. I'm leaning towards the milder option because of stronger zonal flow developing further west, and factoring in the GFS bias towards cold. Still, after the winter so far, you wouldn't want to bet the ranch on this.

On Sunday here, we have had a somewhat cooler day with light rain this afternoon and evening; it has started to snow at the elevation of the Olympic events.
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