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11-01-2010, 21:41   #766
munsterlegend
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Originally Posted by snow ghost View Post
Not strange GSF - more a good sign that we'll have a white out in much of the country.
hmm all i can see is rain except on very high ground!
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11-01-2010, 22:20   #767
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UPDATE _ Monday, 10:15 p.m.
_________________________

Well, the 18z GFS did not introduce anything too radically different, so it's becoming a nowcast situation and I note that the K1 buoy, located about 200 miles SSW of Cork, is reporting strong SSE winds and a temperature of 11 C with a dew point of 10 C. The low centre is evidently just to the southwest of there now and heading for a point perhaps 50 miles west of Valentia by 10 or 1100h then away to the northwest.

Expect the rain to come sweeping in around 0300h and to cover much of the southern half of the country with mixing issues at elevations of perhaps as low as 100m at first, rising to 300m later. Mixing could be to sleet, freezing rain or snow. Anything could fall heavily for a while, the first hour or two of precip could be a real witches' brew but eventually most places, aside from the northeast zone I outlined (and higher parts of the northwest) should change to rain. Where it stays mostly snow (higher elevations, parts of the north) then you could easily see 10-15 cms.

The winds are going to pick up very rapidly in Cork and Waterford as well as most of the south coastal counties, between 0300 and 0600, if you sleep at all, you'll awake to a full SE gale with gusts well over 50 mph possibly even 60-65 mph, but this will ease gradually by mid-day. The strongest winds will be pulled northwest across Limerick and Clare, and may not be felt so much in other counties, where 30-45 mph winds are more likely to be the peak around mid-day.

I want to stress that snow will melt very rapidly in the downpour and the 8-10 C temps likely to sweep through the south and west central counties, and even around the higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow where it may top off at maybe 5 or 6 C (and 3-4 C where the snow is deep). The rapid snowmelt may overwhelm smaller drainage systems even as early as Tuesday afternoon-evening and eventually amass into considerable flood stages on larger rivers (that will take 18-36 hours, so that Wednesday may find larger rivers near flood stage). From the various pictures and accounts I have seen and read, I think the flooding may be fairly serious so I hope to be wrong on that as you've all had enough of that problem. The counties of Carlow and Kilkenny, possibly Tipps also, should be especially vigilant for flash flooding with so many streams rising in heavily snow-covered areas. But also in rural parts of Kerry, Limerick and Cork, I would be really cautious driving on secondary roads because of the risk of mudslides and bridge or roadway washouts.

Well, if I keep typing I am going to miss the storm altogether. Next update likely to be a little after midnight, batten down the hatches.
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12-01-2010, 05:11   #768
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Tuesday, 12 January, 2010 _ 0500h
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ALERTS posted for ... possible wind damage in Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Limerick, Clare and a few other very exposed locations further east ... winds may gust to 70 mph at times from the SSE ... expect minor wind damage such as tree branches down, tiles off roofs, whole trees could be blown over here or there partly because of loosened root adhesion to the waterlogged ground. These winds should peak soon and begin to subside after 1100h. Currently expecting only 40-55 mph gusts in Dublin. (added 0650) The winds in Munster are generally strong enough to suggest locally severe wind impacts like high-sided vehicle rollovers on exposed roadways, shoreline installation damage (winds are coming in at right angles to estuaries and harbours), and construction site damage. All precautions are suggested. Avoid unnecessary travel until mid-day at the earliest. There may be sections of hurricane force winds in Kerry especially in gaps between hills open to the south.

Heavy rain and possible thunderstorms with hail could affect these same areas and later move further north and east. Local rainfalls of 30-50 mms are possible. This rain will probably amount to 20-30 mms further north and east, and may be mixed with sleet or wet snow at times. Flooding is likely to develop rather quickly today due to combined rainfall and snow melt, smaller streams will be prone to overflowing by afternoon/evening, larger rivers will need to be assessed overnight and could possibly be near flood stage in some areas by Wednesday. Flooding can also come due to melting snow unable to drain due to snow clogging of drains.

Snow will begin later this morning in higher parts of the northern counties and inland Mayo and Galway. It is somewhat uncertain where the rain-snow line will end up but probably it will be somewhere around 200-300 metres above sea level, perhaps a bit lower in Ulster. Some snowfalls of 5-15 cms are possible later today. Snow could mix in with sleet or rain elsewhere.


Forecasts remain about the same as yesterday, and these alerts pretty well spell out today's forecast, however, here it is in summary:

TODAY will be windy and wet in most areas with rising temperatures peaking near 8-10 C in the south, 5-7 C in the east, and 2-4 C in the north. Heavy rain will spread north and east, with embedded thunder and hail. Strong southeast winds will hit the south coast before you read this, and continue most of the morning there. These winds will spread further north and east during the morning but won't be quite as strong elsewhere. See the alerts above for more details. Snow will mix in with the rain more frequently as the rain moves north, until some northern areas actually see more snow than rain, with a lot of sleet in some intermediate zones.

It goes without saying that roads will be very messy in a lot of counties today, especially where snow lies on the ground this morning. Watch out for locally flooded out roads, possible bridge washouts, stream overflows especially near any higher ground. Mudslides and high-country snowslides are possible today.

TONIGHT will see the storm abating gradually with much less windy conditions, rather cold again with any rain tending to become sleety and mixing with wet snow, while some snow in Ulster may continue to produce a further 2-4 cms of local accumulation. There may be widespread flooding as a further hazard. Lows will be around 1-3 C. Winds will ease off to SW 10-20 mph in the west, and SE 10-20 mph in the east.

WEDNESDAY will bring more low cloud and fog, drizzle or wet snow, cool temperatures near 3-5 C and lighter winds in general. There could be some accumulating snow on higher ground in the east and north.

THURSDAY may see a bit of sunshine and somewhat milder temperatures, although low cloud and drizzle or wet snow could linger in the far north. Winds will pick up gradually from the south. Morning lows of -3 C could make things very icy in rural areas then daytime highs near +4 to +7 C will give a milder feel again.

FRIDAY will become windy to very windy, rain will move in from the southwest and temperatures may soar to 10 C or higher. This will continue into Saturday and any remnant snow should be long gone by then, but higher mountain snows will be melting too and this could provide a new round of stream flooding.

There appears to be a gradual cooling trend from Sunday onward, and it's quite conceivable that winter will try to stage a comeback for a few days the following week. I wouldn't be surprised if this time is a bit tamer with a fairly rapid breakdown towards the end of the month (when I'm speculating there could be a big storm in the nearby Atlantic heading northeast).

Updates will be coming in hundreds or even thousands on the threads today, I will update this forecast as I believe necessary but you may be hearing a lot of alternate forecast ideas (which is good) and I'll keep watching that "back door" cold front lurking in Wales to make sure it doesn't slam into the east coast unforeseen in this forecast. I think it will link to a developing "pseudo" warm front that can be sketched out at present from just north of Dublin to east of Galway and north into Donegal. North of that, snow seems more likely.

It has been extremely mild here on Monday, with a high near 13 C and extensive snow melt up to 1,500 metres. News reports showed torrents of water running through parking lots at the nearby Olympic venues (not the alpine ski-ing but some other events like snowboarding and ski jumping). They have their work cut out for them getting those sites restored (five weeks to go). More if it happens ...

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 12-01-2010 at 06:54.
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12-01-2010, 11:07   #769
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we will have to send our snow from Ireland you guys for the Olympics,
Hope they get the snow for the events.

Thanks for all your updates
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12-01-2010, 11:35   #770
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UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1130h
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Briefly, the very strong winds should begin to ease off now in the southwest, as the near-hurricane force storm out in the Atlantic pulls further away from the west coast (heading northwest) and leaves behind a moist but cooling circulation in which winds remain southeast and almost backing to east at times, 30-50 mph (should subside further to 20-40 mph).

This will mean that the rain-snow line by elevation will tend to drift lower down with time, so if you've been having rain near 3-4 C it could change to a heavy wet snow at 2-3 C. If your rain has been more like 5-6 C then it could mix with sleet or hail. If you have mist and just drizzle so far and you're in the east or northeast, that could turn to light rain for a while then over to sleet and wet snow. I'm still predicting 5-15 cms of snow over much of the northern half of the country as well as most of Ulster later this afternoon and this evening. This could extend into parts of Dublin but there, the sea and the urban heating will conspire to melt snow that falls at low elevations but the higher districts could see about 3-7 cms.

Eventually, all of this messy weather will be reduced to snow grains or drizzle with temperatures near 1 C by about midnight. A dank fog is likely to develop and people should be ultra-cautious driving because there could be flooding, ice or even debris on the roads and it will be very hard to see very far with the fog.

Really, I've been typing a lot of details, if I had just said "almighty mess" that might have been even better.

Hoping some of the other weather forum regulars will update this as they see fit, I am now officially asleep.
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12-01-2010, 16:46   #771
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Had a tree down this morning & there was some flooding over Munster.
All in all back to normal after all that snow & ice
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12-01-2010, 20:56   #772
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UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:50 p.m.
______________________

Now officially awake again, the snow falling mostly at higher elevations around Dublin and parts of central Ireland may continue for several more hours and could bring a further 10 cms in places. The rain-snow line will continue to drift down towards sea level too, bringing new snowfall to some who have only seen sleet or rain so far. The contrary trend is that moisture is very slowly being exhausted without a new source, basically, the front is raining and snowing and sleeting itself out. There could be a ripple of energy moving along the east coast late tonight so that a heavy wet snow may resume before morning in places.

Tomorrow, I foresee the country divided into two zones, west of a diagonal from inland Donegal to about Waterford, the flow will be gently southwest and temperatures there may come up a degree or two, changing any snow back to drizzle, but amounts may be light in any case. There will be fog over hills and a general misty ambience to it, as snow slowly melts over hills.

The eastern side of the country will be under leftover cold air with temperatures only 1-2 C, and further snow could fall especially higher up, with cold rain or sleet at times near sea level. It will also be foggy over hills.

Thursday, this whole mess will begin to lift and clear away as a moderate southerly wind sets in, and it will get a bit milder, 5-7 C on average, but some snow-covered areas may develop a dense foggy ground cover.

Friday, and I think this is the big weather story now, a second and more powerful thaw will arrive on strong southerly winds, accompanied by late in the day by heavy rainfall, and temperatures will soar to 10 C or higher. This will deliver a knockout blow to remaining snow and start to melt even the higher mountain snows. There could be some renewed and severe flooding from all that, you would have to think. As all reliable models show this and there are no complicating pockets of cold air, etc, I think this is now almost a certainty.

We've been hearing various oracles and seers giving dire warnings of a second round of winter to come later on. While I think this is inevitable to some extent, I'm predicting a brief return to freezing temperatures later this month, and possibly not at all in February which I think may turn out more like the second half of February in 2009, mild and spring-like. I can't rule out perhaps one or two harsh wintry blasts but I do feel that much of the winter is now past. Meanwhile, we have no winter at all here, it is rather incredibly a partly cloudy 14 C at 1 p.m. and I really should find the old golf clubs.
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12-01-2010, 21:06   #773
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Thanks for the update MT, you have definitely been clocking in the overtime these past few days Oh and enjoy that round of golf
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12-01-2010, 21:12   #774
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Thanks MT for all your work, wisdom & wit.

How unusual is your current mild spell of weather?
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12-01-2010, 21:14   #775
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given the duration of this cold period, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the usual winter trend of February being our snowiest month is flipped this year once the atlantic takes over on Friday. However, joe bastardi, if i'm not mistaken, was the only one to predict the severity of this cold period and his prediction of when it would end(around now) was fairly accurate.
so it'll be interesting to see if he is right about the cold returning, but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.
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12-01-2010, 21:47   #776
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Well our winters are similar to southwest Ireland so 14 C is pretty unusual here, it's typical of an El Nino pattern to see some very mild weather on the west coast of North America, though.

I will welcome a return to more normal weather in Ireland as I've been on almost non-stop since mid-December, it seems. In more tranquil weather, I might be on once to post a forecast and once to read to mid-day reports.

Wonder where Darkman2 is, he got all these threads started and now there's no sign of him.

As to Bastardi, I've actually met the guy, thirty years ago we were both working in the same office and he was pretty eccentric even then (as to whether I was, or am now, a moot point). I think he's hit a nugget this winter but it seems to me that he's been cold-mongering for several years now with these European forecasts, and I'm not sure about his statements that the drivers are all in place, didn't Tiger's wife use the driver on his SUV?

Seriously, the circulation around the northern hemisphere has taken quite a shift in the past week, our warm spell here is a new development for example, it had been fairly cool up until about a week ago. The eastern U.S. is about to warm up substantially after a month of cold weather. The Greenland high has shrivelled up to almost nothing and some forecasts are showing a strong polar vortex near Iceland soon. There is, however, a big cold high edging west in Russia, I assume he has his eyes on that. I did too a week ago, but now I'm wondering if that high is going to do much more than provide a "ramp" for the Atlantic to come steaming back in, and you know what's going to happen if the Atlantic totally wakes up, then it's six weeks of southwest flow. My forecast is based on the thinking that the Russian high will probably edge a bit further west over time and at least push the stronger jet stream winds back to the west slightly in February so it may not be too stormy a month.

Anyway, I should stick to the 3-5 day time period or maybe 3-5 hours. Back to the main thread to see who's insulting whom at this very moment. A lot of noises in the hills this week.
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12-01-2010, 22:27   #777
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but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.
lol nacho u remind me of one of them people that always point out the worst, like people that say 6 days before christmas that " this time next week it will all be over " lol
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12-01-2010, 23:02   #778
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lol nacho u remind me of one of them people that always point out the worst, like people that say 6 days before christmas that " this time next week it will all be over " lol
well, it's the only way to avoid dissapointment

i would love it(as Kevin Keegan famously said) if we saw a return of the cold in February but given the blocking highs are declining it's hard to see how that can happen. i assumed one of them was going to build up again but that doesn't look like happening now. also, you have to bear in mind how ununsual this past month's weather is for us. yes, we could see very cold winters like this more often, but it's far more likely we won't - sadly.
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12-01-2010, 23:17   #779
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I see what your saying , but I rather not think in trends , I just like to think well anything is possible , I know im probably dreaming but anything is possible when
theres been earthquakes in donegal a few years in a row now or even more extraordinary is that theres been snow in Cork lol
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12-01-2010, 23:41   #780
 
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Well our winters are similar to southwest Ireland so 14 C is pretty unusual here, it's typical of an El Nino pattern to see some very mild weather on the west coast of North America, though.

I will welcome a return to more normal weather in Ireland as I've been on almost non-stop since mid-December, it seems. In more tranquil weather, I might be on once to post a forecast and once to read to mid-day reports.

Wonder where Darkman2 is, he got all these threads started and now there's no sign of him.

As to Bastardi, I've actually met the guy, thirty years ago we were both working in the same office and he was pretty eccentric even then (as to whether I was, or am now, a moot point). I think he's hit a nugget this winter but it seems to me that he's been cold-mongering for several years now with these European forecasts, and I'm not sure about his statements that the drivers are all in place, didn't Tiger's wife use the driver on his SUV?

Seriously, the circulation around the northern hemisphere has taken quite a shift in the past week, our warm spell here is a new development for example, it had been fairly cool up until about a week ago. The eastern U.S. is about to warm up substantially after a month of cold weather. The Greenland high has shrivelled up to almost nothing and some forecasts are showing a strong polar vortex near Iceland soon. There is, however, a big cold high edging west in Russia, I assume he has his eyes on that. I did too a week ago, but now I'm wondering if that high is going to do much more than provide a "ramp" for the Atlantic to come steaming back in, and you know what's going to happen if the Atlantic totally wakes up, then it's six weeks of southwest flow. My forecast is based on the thinking that the Russian high will probably edge a bit further west over time and at least push the stronger jet stream winds back to the west slightly in February so it may not be too stormy a month.

Anyway, I should stick to the 3-5 day time period or maybe 3-5 hours. Back to the main thread to see who's insulting whom at this very moment. A lot of noises in the hills this week.
I think there are two possible outcomes in the following weeks.
Outcome 1 (the most depressing): Atlantic wins, train of weather systems sweeping in from Atlantic battering Ireland with strong winds and rain; mild southwesterlies.
Outcome 2 (more interesting): Rise of the Azores HP over Ireland/GB and union with Russian HP, causing a MASSIVE Atlantic block (often called the Wejkoff bridge; well that's what its called in Italian weather jargon). This usually causes the cold to plunge into EITHER Eastern/Central/Southern Europe with cold antycylonic days in Ireland. It's a classic configuration (see link). If 'our' side of the bridge in Ireland says further to the West, then our chances of seeing colder air increase.

P.S. That particular chart is from Feb 2005 - Central Europe/Italy saw v. snowy days!
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