Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Elmer Blooker · 13-12-2019 11:53am

PS. When you consider that we haven't seen northern blocking during a winter month for NINE years this is a very encouraging chart if you ask me.

ECH1-144.GIF?13-12

Xenji · 13-12-2019 2:43pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal
Strong westerly winds Friday night and for a time Saturday. Mean speeds 50 to 65 km/h gusting to 90 to 110 km/h with a risk of stronger winds at the coasts.

Valid: 17:00 Friday 13/12/2019 to 17:00 Saturday 14/12/2019

Issued: 13:00 Friday 13/12/2019

BLIZZARD7 · 13-12-2019 3:06pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

PS. When you consider that we haven't seen northern blocking during a winter month for NINE years this is a very encouraging chart if you ask me.

Not strictly true now... a recent example, albeit late in the season.

Graces7 · 13-12-2019 3:29pm

Wild wet windy... not often I say this but a miserable old day! watching a neighbour checking his distant field in yellow luminous jacket.. sound of wind, rain and tide.. fire lit and burning well...

West Mayo offshore

Gonzo · 13-12-2019 3:52pm

the next 6 days look cold with showers or rain/sleet in places, possible hill snow. Milder with south-westerlies from about the 20th of December and very wet up to Christmas Day. After Christmas remains very much up in the air. There is a slight chance of something much colder happening right after Christmas.

Logan Roy · 13-12-2019 3:53pm

Ah yes, those famously accurate 168 Hour + charts

Gonzo · 13-12-2019 4:00pm

Logan Roy wrote: »

Ah yes, those famously accurate 168 Hour + charts

they can be inaccurate but sometimes can give a good indication of whats to come. It seems fairly believable that the unsettled theme will continue for the time being with a very active Atlantic since September and very weak signals of northern blocking.

Mortelaro · 13-12-2019 5:52pm

Gonzo wrote: »

they can be inaccurate but sometimes can give a good indication of whats to come. It seems fairly believable that the unsettled theme will continue for the time being with a very active Atlantic since September and very weak signals of northern blocking.

You don't need northern blocking for the Atlantic to settle down
A bloated Bartlett high would do it :pac:

Donegal Storm · 13-12-2019 7:01pm

No idea what thread we're supposed to be posting in at the moment but a cold wet evening in Letterkenny with showers turning increasingly sleety, some nice big snowflakes splattering on the windscreen on the drive home

Graces7 · 13-12-2019 8:49pm

Dratted hailiboy shower on the metal roof.... Was just dropping off... At least snow would be quiet..

West Mayo. offshore island

igCorcaigh · 13-12-2019 9:02pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Dratted hailiboy shower on the metal roof.... Was just dropping off... At least snow would be quiet..

West Mayo. offshore island

Oh I love the sound of hail!
Metal roof is all the better.

Oscar Bravo · 13-12-2019 9:19pm

Heavy hail shower here in Castlebar belting off the windows

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 14-12-2019 11:22am

Wet snow shower in Sallins a while ago

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2019 1:27pm

A better day than expected here in Castlebar.mostly dry, cool breeze but ground is dry. 6 degrees

km79 · 14-12-2019 1:28pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A better day than expected here in Castlebar.mostly dry, cool breeze but ground is dry. 6 degrees

The sheets will be dry in an hour on the line !

Graces7 · 14-12-2019 2:41pm

km79 wrote: »

The sheets will be dry in an hour on the line !

..if they stay on the line...

Gonzo · 15-12-2019 8:31pm

interesting video this evening by Gav.

Basically there may be hints of a pattern change which could start to happen after Christmas. The AO/NAO may go from positive to negative and the Beijing Climate Center wants to introduce strong northern blocking for January.

This in no way guarantee's cold for us but I would really welcome a pattern change, like most people i'm completely fed up with all the rain of the past 3/4 months and would love to see the Atlantic shutting down for a few weeks minimum. This could lead to us to something colder and also dryer as we head into the new year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhp1_s1P9r8

nacho libre · 15-12-2019 8:41pm

Gonzo wrote: »

interesting video this evening by Gav.

Basically there may be hints of a pattern change which could start to happen after Christmas. The AO/NAO may go from positive to negative and the Beijing Climate Center wants to introduce strong northern blocking for January.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhp1_s1P9r8

I think the Beijing Climate Center has been out on its own predicting blocking for our locale this winter, so kudos to them if it does indeed happen.

Graces7 · 16-12-2019 5:36am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh I love the sound of hail!
Metal roof is all the better.

Not when you are fast asleep :eek::(:(

Graces7 · 16-12-2019 5:38am

Gonzo wrote: »

interesting video this evening by Gav.

Basically there may be hints of a pattern change which could start to happen after Christmas. The AO/NAO may go from positive to negative and the Beijing Climate Center wants to introduce strong northern blocking for January.

This in no way guarantee's cold for us but I would really welcome a pattern change, like most people i'm completely fed up with all the rain of the past 3/4 months and would love to see the Atlantic shutting down for a few weeks minimum. This could lead to us to something colder and also dryer as we head into the new year.

********************************************************************

Is it not cold enough for you now! Crazy people... sitting here abed all but fully dressed and still shivering

Rock Lesnar · 16-12-2019 9:54am

Cold, clear, sunny but frosty in meath this morning, seemed to catch a couple of people out as theres a couple of cars in the ditch along the road

Graces7 · 16-12-2019 10:05am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Cold, clear, sunny but frosty in meath this morning, seemed to catch a couple of people out as theres a couple of cars in the ditch along the road

***********************

Oh dear! Hope everyone is OK

dark and dank and still here. wet too :rolleyes:

west mayo offshore island

Gonzo · 16-12-2019 1:20pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Gonzo wrote: »

interesting video this evening by Gav.

Is it not cold enough for you now! Crazy people... sitting here abed all but fully dressed and still shivering

The cold we have had since November is just an annoying cold that doesn't really deliver anything worthwhile. Cold zonal weather often leads to the feeling of real chill, bone shaking damp winds and cold rain which is really not enjoyable. I find if you get a cold easterly, it can be much colder in terms of temperature but the real feel may not feel as chilly, especially if it's a dry easterly with crisp, sunny and frosty conditions, it can even be quite pleasant. Even snowy days from an easterly can often not feel as chilly as a zonal based cold weather and you get the benefit of seeing some beautiful winter postcard scenes around.

Gonzo · 16-12-2019 1:41pm

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2 more dry days to go and then we are back to square one in terms of rainfall. Milder and very unsettled from Wednesday. Those rainfall spikes look worrying as the land here hasn't really had a chance to properly dry out from the deluges of the past 3 months. It wouldn't take many wet days to bring back the risk of flooding.

Towards the end of the run we see alot of scatter in terms of temperatures, most are mild but there are a few outlying cold runs which almost get us into the freezer as we head towards New Years Day.

The rainfall also looks like it will ease a little after Christmas. From Wednesday to Christmas Day looks like a very wet spell indeed. Hopefully we will see the situation after Christmas evolve into a dryer and colder scene.

I said yesterday I am totally up for a major pattern change which could hopefully bring an end to this incredibly wet and prolonged wet spell. The Atlantic has been raging since mid September with very little let up, I remain hopeful that it will run out of steam during January or February.

Graces7 · 16-12-2019 2:30pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Graces7 wrote: »

The cold we have had since November is just an annoying cold that doesn't really deliver anything worthwhile. Cold zonal weather often leads to the feeling of real chill, bone shaking damp winds and cold rain which is really not enjoyable. I find if you get a cold easterly, it can be much colder in terms of temperature but the real feel may not feel as chilly, especially if it's a dry easterly with crisp, sunny and frosty conditions, it can even be quite pleasant. Even snowy days from an easterly can often not feel as chilly as a zonal based cold weather and you get the benefit of seeing some beautiful winter postcard scenes around.

Hmmmm cold is cold is cold...and this is cold.. maybe in the experience of the person. but cold here

Graces7 · 16-12-2019 2:32pm

Heavy deluging rain. Dark... drab

Oneiric 3 · 16-12-2019 4:19pm

Encouraging signals on the long-term ECMWF this morning that we could be seeing some nice, drizzly, humidity saturated warmth as we head into January. And with the added bonus of not having any Winter storms, or even anything of slightest meteorological interest, to concern ourselves with:

More runs needed, but the signals are looking good.

SleetAndSnow · 16-12-2019 5:20pm

Strange day in cork city. While the stations say 5 degrees etc, my house received no sunlight today (north facing + low winter sun) so theres still frost on my roof + in the garden. Garden thermo says its about 0-1 degrees + some slippy footpaths outside

Gonzo · 16-12-2019 5:21pm

the long range models have been signaling a dire winter season filled with mild muck for quite some time now. let's hope they are wrong and fail to the same extent as last winters long range models.

Mortelaro · 16-12-2019 5:32pm

Frost hung around all day here in Arklow

Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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