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31-05-2021, 00:24   #1
Gaoth Laidir
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Wednesday ECM is looking interesting for some fairly widely scattered elevated thunderstorms, with a high-Theta-E tongue moving up over the country during the late afternoon hours. K-Indices of 32-34 suggest a 70-80% probability, though soundings suggest that it won't be surface-based.

% probability = 4 x (KI -15)



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31-05-2021, 18:50   #2
PukkaStukka
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Interesting there's a big red blob over Dublin, but I learned before not to get my hopes up
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31-05-2021, 19:41   #3
The One Doctor
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Probably a rumble or two, that's it . We get big ones every twenty years or so

Last edited by The One Doctor; 01-06-2021 at 12:34.
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31-05-2021, 19:48   #4
esposito
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Probably a rumble of two, that's it .
And England and Wales will get loads of thunderstorms of course
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01-06-2021, 11:08   #5
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Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually
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01-06-2021, 13:11   #6
The One Doctor
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Lots of Altocumulus today near Arklow looking towards the Irish sea
Bodes well for a noisy tomorrow usually
We had that last year and it created a supercell over the IOM. Nothing over Ireland of course.
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01-06-2021, 13:22   #7
DOCARCH
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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer 2021

Mod Note: New thread for the season.
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01-06-2021, 13:44   #8
Marine Layer
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Moving North northwest


https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1...663271425?s=20
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01-06-2021, 15:13   #9
DOCARCH
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Looks like clouds bubbling up/convection kicking off from north Cork up through the midlands. Could be some sharp showers.
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01-06-2021, 18:20   #10
Marine Layer
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Embedded thunderstorms mentioned on the 5 to 6pm radio forecast moving quickly up the East from the southeast tomorrow morning
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01-06-2021, 18:41   #11
Gaoth Laidir
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Convection/Thunderstorm thread | Summer 2021

We're now in summer and there is a slight chance of some elevated thunderstorms coming up in a high-theta-e plume from Biscay overnight, with the best chance being the southeast tomorrow morning. It's a fairly small chance, especially outside of that area, but still warrants a mention.
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01-06-2021, 18:44   #12
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Radar return shows shower developing in the Nenagh area...
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01-06-2021, 20:04   #13
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Yeah nothing clear about tomorrow but it would seem that possibilities of Thunderstorm activity beginning off the SE coast, possibly some moving inland and looks like moving up along the Irish sea during Weds, how close to the coast or if they move inland remains to be seen. Nice bit of LLS and DLS showing up in the SE earlier tomorrow as the trough moves up over the country , most instability seems to be in the SE initially but will this grow the storms to mature further up the coast or inland a bit ? Lapse rates not great so not sure if much will happen ?

Tomorrow evening / night into early Thurs morning off the SW might become active, possibly only off the coast but will see if any stray close to the coast. Shear is in abundance and Lapse rates are very good but again might just stay over the sea. Will be keeping an eye to see if Orographic lift has an influence in Kerry tomorrow night.









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01-06-2021, 20:05   #14
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Charts emphasizing off the SW tomorrow night. The center of the area of Lp will be off the SW later tomorrow night.





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01-06-2021, 21:33   #15
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Some altocumulas passing over waterford from the south

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