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31-05-2021, 14:18   #1
Gonzo
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Summer 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

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After a chilly Spring how is the beginning of Summer 2021 shaping up? It's been unseasonably chilly up to a few days ago with temperatures struggling to reach 11 or 12C over the past 2 months and single digits much of the time. Over the past few days we have seen a big increase in temperatures to slightly above normal values and the first spell of early summer weather.

The current warm and dry interlude is not going to last long. The Atlantic is already trying to break this down and it will become increasingly unsetted as this week progresses, starting with western areas from tomorrow and all areas becoming unsettled from Wednesday, however rainfall totals look fairly low overall. Temperatures from midweek will lower back to average values and this will continue into the weekend.

However once we get past this weekend, we do appear to be on a warming trend once again with signals that temperatures could lift up and take off at some stage later next week.



Overall the first half of June is looking on the warm side and there is the chance we could tap into a very warm spell at some point either later next week or the following week. June could well turn out to be a dryer month than May and it will certainly be much milder than the very cold May.



A bit of a battleground scenario this weekend between the Atlantic doing it's best to try and break through, and a big area of high pressure over Scandinavia. This will result in average temperatures, a fair deal of cloud and some showers this weekend. Temperatures generally between 14 and 18C over the weekend.

From next Sunday/Monday temperatures will begin to rise once again, possibly reaching 19 or 20C in many places. We will still be in this battleground scenario with cooler Atlantic air trying to take hold while warmth begins to build to our east.

Bank holiday Monday looks fairly mild with temperatures in the high teens, possibly 20 or 21C in places and it will be mostly dry but there could be some showers about as well.



By this stage we are well into the unreliable time frame, it appears as the cooler and more unsettled conditions will sit in the Atlantic and the warmth from the continent will edge in over Ireland as the week progresses.



Temperatures will be high teens to low 20s, particularly in the eastern half of the country with warmer air taking over.



The weekend of 12th/13th June could see temperatures lifting up to the mid 20s in many areas particularly if there are good spells of sunshine.



We finish up with an increasingly unstable setup and possibly very warm with temperatures possibly getting up to 25 or 26C but an increasing risk of a thundery breakdown.



Low pressure with some thunderstorm actiivty may begin to break down this warm spell allowing cooler conditions into the second half of June but this is a long way off.



Current precipitation forcast looks like normal rainfall values in more western areas, particularly coastal areas more prone to Atlantic breaking through. Eastern areas may not see much in the way of rain over the next 10 days with only small amounts of rainfall over the next 7 to 10 days.

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04-06-2021, 00:22   #2
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ECM looking better again from early next week as ridging develops up over Ireland and we become predominantly more under the influence of Hp. ECM showing less rain again on the latest charts and looks set to become increasingly warmer as the week goes on, possibly into the low to maybe mid 20's for many away from coasts and currently showing it to dip back a bit the weekend in the high teens to the low 20's range. ECM can be conservative with it's temperature predictions so will be keeping an eye to see if they might even get higher then shown at present. Time to get the shorts out I think and let some sun at my milky white shins








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04-06-2021, 20:04   #3
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GFS 12z brings the breakdown of the warm weather forward to 13th June with much cooler and unsettled conditions following, many of the other members are in agreement to a cooldown after next weekend.

ECM still stays high and dry right to the end, same with the GEM.

We still look on course for a 3 to 6 day warm spell later next week.
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04-06-2021, 22:31   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
GFS 12z brings the breakdown of the warm weather forward to 13th June with much cooler and unsettled conditions following, many of the other members are in agreement to a cooldown after next weekend.
The gfs constantly flops and changes too often. It almost looks likes it’s chasing a breakdown or a heatwave. The same can be said in winter as regards easterlies and mild westerlies. I certainly wouldn’t be reading anything into the gfs after 5 days from its output.

There is a good link on netweather from the USA. It’s the Atlantic Ocean pressure charts. It gives a very reliable 7-10 day forecast. Almost the same as the ecmwf. More reliable than the the gfs and gem.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...0day/500mb.php
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10-06-2021, 23:29   #5
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A cooler outlook most noticeably at night time. A few wetter days like around next Tues/ Weds and the following weekend with showery days in between but perhaps one consolation especially for us in the Western side of the country is that even with the rain is the prospect of brighter fresher spells and might even get a few bright evenings with sunsets instead of all the low overcast cloudy conditions at present.

GFS quite similar , differences in positions of Lp and where would get the most rainfall as would expect. GFS showing the E getting the most rainfall the following weekend but a long way to go with nothing certain out to then.





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11-06-2021, 13:00   #6
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Next week will see big changes in the weather, especially for the east where it has been mostly warm and sunny since the end of May. Temperatures will remain fairly mild after a warm weekend up to about Tuesday with 20C possible on Monday and Tuesday.

The real breakdown begins Wednesday to a much cooler airmass. Night time in particular will be much cooler everywhere with temperatures well down in the single digits and daytime highs of 11 to 16C, possibly cooler than this when stuck under a band of rain.

Low pressure will move in from the north-west dragging much cooler air through the country with bands of rain and plenty of cloud.







It will remain very cool till the 23rd of June and possibly beyond with low pressures stalling over Ireland as high pressure and much warmer air just to the east and south of the UK will prevent the cooler Atlantic air from making much progress into the continent.





It looks to remain fairly unsettled up to Friday 25th with regular areas of low pressure driving bands of rain or showers in off the Atlantic.

At the very end of the GFS there are signs we may see an improvement in the temperatures and flimsy signs of things becoming more settled as the Azores high may attempt to ridge up towards us from the south-west, but will it get here and influence Ireland?

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16-06-2021, 14:01   #7
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We're half way through June and up to now June has been very good In the east with plenty of warm and dry weather and a fair deal of sunshine. It wasn't a classic by any means but most days saw sunny spells and temperatures comfortably getting into the high teens to low twenties.

The second half of June appears to be setting up a much cooler and more unsettled theme with the Atlantic getting going proper from this Sunday.



It looks relatively cool and unsettled with the majority of Ireland and the UK under a cool Atlantic flow and low pressures close to or over Ireland over the next 7 to 10 days.

Between 30 and 50mm of rainfall is forecasted for the next week to 10 days, however I think these charts may trend wetter over the next few days.





Latest GFS ensembles shows it becoming very unsettled with plenty of rainfall spikes for the second half of June and temperatures either average to slightly below average. I haven't seen an ensemble this wet since the middle of May.



There are hints at the end of the ensemble that we may see signs of warmer weather towards the end of the month and into the beginning of July. We may have to wait about 2 weeks for things to warm up again. This is a long way out in the unreliable timeframe but hopefully we will get another slice of summer by then.

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