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28-01-2021, 12:28   #61
lolie
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Estofex going for a level 1 in parts of the South, could get Interesting later on.


Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Jan 2021 06:00 to Fri 29 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jan 2021 23:40
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the southern British Isles and north-western and central France for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large trough is located across eastern Europe that will lift during the period. In its wake, a strong jet stream extends from the northern Atlantic towards the Mediterranean. Two vort-maxima will cross western Europe and provide QG lift. At lower levels, a tongue of humid maritime air spreads into western Europe, with mixing ratios around 8 g/kg. Lift due to warm air advection will result in rather steep lapse rates and weak CAPE.

On Thursday, widespread showers are expected within the martime air mass. Two activity maxima are forecast in association with two vort-maxima, one crossing the British Islea into the Benelux countries in the afternoon and evening, another affecting large parts of the Bay of Biscay and France late in the period.

Chance of thunderstorms is highest in the northern parts , whereas only isolated lightning is expected in the south due to higher EL temperature. Showers and thunderstorms will be well-organized in a high-shear, low-CAPE environment, with about 15 to 20 m/s 0-1 km vertical wind shear. Bowing segments and low-topped mesocyclones are not ruled out. Main threat are severe wind gusts. However, due to low LCLs, a few tornadoes are not ruled out.

https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/poly...rmforecast.xml
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28-01-2021, 12:41   #62
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I always jump on this thread in excitement when it gets bumped.

What time are we taking about in the South?
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28-01-2021, 22:49   #63
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I always jump on this thread in excitement when it gets bumped.

What time are we taking about in the South?
Nothing much on Met Éireann's forecast apart from some windy wet weather in the South tonight.
Unfortunately it wouldn't be the first time Estofex have issued a warning for ireland and nothing to come of it.
No sparks out there atm
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28-01-2021, 23:04   #64
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The best I can see is the SW for the next few hours as the front goes through associated with that advancing area of LP.

Weak CAPE readings though if the shear is somewhat strong and lapse rates are decent, no guarantee though but maybe with a bit of Orographic lift ? In all quite weak looking perhaps .













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29-01-2021, 00:13   #65
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Unfortunately it wouldn't be the first time Estofex have issued a warning for ireland and nothing to come of it.

And they often miss/ignore fairly significant events in Ireland too. I've found www.convectiveweather.co.uk to be much more accurate with their forecasts for Ireland. The past few "events" I've compared their forecast maps to sferic detection maps the next day and they were insanely accurate.
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10-02-2021, 17:07   #66
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I feel like I have been cheating on this thread spending so much time with the snow chasers.
A friend sent me this picture of a suspected funnel cloud on Monday, taken in the vicinity of Corandulla Galway.

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File Type: jpg IMG-20210208-WA0007.jpg (50.5 KB, 501 views)

Last edited by redsteveireland; 10-02-2021 at 17:47.
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16-02-2021, 06:13   #67
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Flash of lightning and thunder in east Galway afew min ago
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19-02-2021, 11:49   #68
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thunderstorms due this afternoon in the west?
No mention on Met.ie though
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19-02-2021, 14:16   #69
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thunderstorms due this afternoon in the west? No mention on Met.ie though

Says who?
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19-02-2021, 16:22   #70
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Says who?
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19-02-2021, 18:13   #71
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suspect they were wrong?
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19-02-2021, 23:55   #72
M.T. Cranium
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Would say slight risk of thunderstorm development Saturday 1500h-1900h in the midlands to central Leinster and inland southeast, as a well-defined cold front develops, may have minor squall line development.
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20-02-2021, 00:38   #73
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Latest ECM 18Z showing a pathway from the SW up along the Western side of the country as possibly producing some thunderstorms. Lot of shear available, decent lapse rates, upper cold pool, looks squally all right with some big gusty convective downpours.
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20-02-2021, 09:23   #74
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Latest ECM 18Z showing a pathway from the SW up along the Western side of the country as possibly producing some thunderstorms. Lot of shear available, decent lapse rates, upper cold pool, looks squally all right with some big gusty convective downpours.
Do you think that the risk is on the same timescales as suggested by M.T. Cranium earlier, just wondering when to unplug ?
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20-02-2021, 11:04   #75
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Do you think that the risk is on the same timescales as suggested by M.T. Cranium earlier, just wondering when to unplug ?
Will be watching from early afternoon, probably more a chance say from North Kerry up through Limerick, midlands, N or NE. Not huge MUCAPE but some bit of a possibility, yeah around the same timescale.

Some straight wind like features showing up on the models for the afternoon, could be very wet and gusty during their passage.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 20-02-2021 at 11:26. Reason: additional chart
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