Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
03-06-2021, 12:19   #31
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 12,083
Table of forecasts for June 2021


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)

------------------------------------------------------------

For the sunshine bonus, here's the count of each variable ...

Days (9.5h +) __ Max Hours ________ Dates

12 _____ 1 ____ 15.5+ _____ 10 ____ 30 _ 1 ___ 21 _ 1

9 ______3 ____ 15.0-15.4 ___ 6 ____ 29 _ 1 ___ 18 _ 2

8 ______6 ____ 14.5-14.9 ___ 4 ____ 28 _ 2 ___ 17 _ 1

7 ______3 ____ 14.0-14.4 ___ 1 ____ 26 _ 1 ___ 15 _ 3

6 ______4 ____ 13.5-13.9 ___ 0 ____ 25 _ 1 ___ 14 _ 4

5 ______3 ____ 13.0-13.4 ___ 1 ____ 24 _ 3 ___ 13 _ 2

4 ______5 ____ 12.5-12.9 ___ 1 ____ 23 _ 1 ___ 10 _ 1

3 ______1 ____ < 12.5 _____ 3 ____ 22 _ 2

-----------------------------------------------------------------

(Con Sensus takes the median on these, which is why they choose 19th, despite no guesses for that date.

-- median for 26 forecasts is average of 13th and 14th ranked)

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 03-06-2021 at 21:14.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
03-06-2021, 12:40   #32
appledrop
Registered User
 
appledrop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,296
M.T, I'll keep my days the same for bonus qyestion but can I change max hours of sunshine to 15.3 hours. Thanks.
appledrop is online now  
Thanks from:
03-06-2021, 21:15   #33
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 12,083
Sunshine adjustment available to end of today, folks. After that we go with what you said.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
04-06-2021, 13:21   #34
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 5,038
4.3hours on 4th the max so far for month.

Just for statistical purposes
pauldry is offline  
(3) thanks from:
08-06-2021, 17:09   #35
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 12,083
After the first week of June ...

IMT on 13.4 C which is 0.6 above normal for the period.

MAX and MIN have not been tracked by me at all, hoping for more obvious candidates later.

PRC at 44% of normal, without Valentia it would be closer to 30% and some places have been almost dry.

SUN is at 77.3% (464/600) although two Dublin locations are running above normal and the rest quite cloudy so far.

BONUS -- no action at all yet.

OUTLOOK -- GFS continues to suggest one warm week and one cooler week in the next fortnight, some other guidance goes more for warm continuing to be dominant. The warm to cold scenario would probably be accompanied by a return to wetter patterns than we'll see this coming week where 25% of normal rainfall might be about the limit for the grid, 50% west to near zero east. Sunshine may pick up slightly although a rather cloudy flow persists.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
09-06-2021, 00:26   #36
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 5,038
Think there was 5.4hours of sun in Belmullet last Saturday but maybe this will be beaten this Saturday.

Hard to see to many sunny days in Belmullet in the coming 7 to 10 days apart from maybe Friday and Saturday
pauldry is offline  
(2) thanks from:
09-06-2021, 07:41   #37
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 12,083
The one good thing about the sunshine situation is that there probably hasn't been any more sunshine at Malin Head than at Belmullet so that the last-minute change of location isn't having much effect on the outcome.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Thanks from:
09-06-2021, 10:20   #38
appledrop
Registered User
 
appledrop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,296
Hmm I don't know where I was going with my 9 days of 10+ hours of sunshine!

In fairness it has been much nicer in Dublin so I think I was feeling very optimistic when I was posting my predictions for this month.
appledrop is online now  
10-06-2021, 09:14   #39
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 5,038
yup could end up very low.

Southwesterly airflow killing it along the West and North

12.3hours sunshine in Belmullet so far in June. Just 30% of normal

Last edited by pauldry; 10-06-2021 at 09:39.
pauldry is offline  
Advertisement
10-06-2021, 09:45   #40
DOCARCH
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 14,586
Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?
DOCARCH is offline  
Thanks from:
10-06-2021, 10:01   #41
appledrop
Registered User
 
appledrop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,296
Quote:
Originally Posted by DOCARCH View Post
Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?
Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.
appledrop is online now  
10-06-2021, 13:13   #42
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 13,506
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
Quote:
Originally Posted by appledrop View Post
Yea I think it will hit 23 today. Weather has been unreal in Dublin nearly 20 degrees everyday, but I know the rest of country has not been as lucky.
Today is a bit of a disappointment, while it is very warm considering the cloud and wind, the sun is really struggling to get going. We will need a big improvment in the afternoon like yesterday to see temperatures getting any higher than 21 or 22C. We may have to wait for Saturday and Sunday to see the warmest temperatures of the year.
Gonzo is online now  
(2) thanks from:
11-06-2021, 01:19   #43
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 5,038
Yes after the next few days that appears to be it regarding temperatures around 25c for June...but not set in stone. Could just be 7 days or so of cooler weather
pauldry is offline  
Thanks from:
11-06-2021, 07:44   #44
M.T. Cranium
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 12,083
There's a bit of a 2007 look to the model run this morning, hope it doesn't go that bad, but towards the end of the GFS run it gets quite wet. I don't trust early June warmth, never seems to correlate well with good summers.
M.T. Cranium is offline  
Thanks from:
11-06-2021, 10:45   #45
appledrop
Registered User
 
appledrop's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 3,296
Quote:
Originally Posted by DOCARCH View Post
Max. of 22.5c at Phoenix Park yesterday. Could well do better today?
22.5 again on 10th at Phoenix Park.

Hopefully we are in for a scorcher on Sunday all over the country and max will be beaten.
appledrop is online now  
Thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet