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09-06-2021, 07:56   #6031
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 9 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 June, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, the higher values likely to be in Leinster and east Ulster, midlands and east Munster, also more of an anomaly for overnight lows which may be 3 to 5 above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average only 25 per cent of normal in parts of the west and southwest, also into Ulster, with even lower values likely for the east and southeast, some parts of the midlands.
-- Sunshine will vary from only 50 per cent of normal in the west and north, also near the south coast, to closer to normal totals in the east and parts of the midlands.
-- Winds will be generally moderate south to southwest, although in the lower end of the moderate range most of the time.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, rather warm and muggy, with a few more outbreaks of light rain more frequent across the south this morning and at times in the west and north by mid-day and afternoon. Amounts will be generally 2 to 5 mm in these areas, and trace to 2 mm in other regions. Highs 15 to 17 C in the cloudier west and south, northwest; 18 to 22 C in the midlands and east. Winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle at times, rather warm and humid, lows 13 to 17 C.

THURSDAY will also be rather cloudy but with slightly longer bright spells or sunny intervals in the same parts of the country as today, with probably fewer outbreaks of light rain as well. Highs generally 19 to 23 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue this slow clearing trend with the widespread cloud becoming a bit less uniform each day leading to some quite prolonged sunny breaks in the east and some sunny intervals in previously cloudy areas further west also. Temperatures will continue a slow rise with highs by Friday 20 to 24 C and by Saturday into the 21 to 25 C range. Nights will continue quite warm with lows 13 to 17 C. Winds will start to pick up slightly each day and may reach 40 to 70 km/hr in exposed coastal areas.

By SUNDAY there may be some showers back in the picture at least for parts of the north and west, but it will remain quite warm especially in the southeast with highs once again 21 to 25 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with fresher westerly winds and highs 15 to 20 C. Some showers may continue in the north and west.

By TUESDAY (15th) a larger change in the weather pattern will begin as cooler air arrives, and possibly rather gusty southwest to west winds, with more widespread showers advancing gradually further east. Highs around 18 C.

From next Wednesday (16th) on, the pattern may become quite a bit cooler with highs only 15 to 18 C and more frequent outbreaks of light rain, with winds sometimes rather gusty from the west to northwest.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and a bit warmer than recent days with highs near 20 C.
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10-06-2021, 07:17   #6032
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 10 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will range from 1 deg above normal in the west, to 3 deg above in the east. In all regions, nights will average more above normal than days although the difference will be slight.
-- Rainfalls will average only 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the west, and zero to 25 per cent in the east. A significant amount of that will come near the end of the weekly interval.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 per cent of normal in the west, to 75 per cent in the east, and some coastal locations could see as little as 25 per cent.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and only a few widely separated outbreaks of light rain mostly near Atlantic coasts. Highs near 22 C in the east but only 16 to 19 C elsewhere.

(astronomy note: A partial eclipse of the Sun around 1100h may be accompanied by slightly reduced light intensity, if you happen to have any clear breaks during this event, of course don't look directly at the Sun, but if you have some cloud layers and can see a dim outline of the sun's disk you may see that the top third of it has been covered by the Moon (from about 1030 to 1130 this may be noticeable). The eclipse is more total well to the north around Greenland and even up there it's an "annular" eclipse meaning that the Moon is too distant from the earth at this point in its orbit to cover the sun's disk completely, so in some places it will be seen within the glare of the Sun's disk ... and that will reduce the illumination considerably but as I found out at the total eclipse in 2017, even a small amount of the Sun's disk uncovered gives dim daylight conditions, and the drop in light intensity at full coverage is quite sudden (within a few seconds it goes from twilight to nearly full darkness). )

TONIGHT will become overcast again with a few outbreaks of light rain, lows 13 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and perhaps a degree or two cooler in some parts of the north in particular, as a very weak front moves in, with scattered outbreaks of light rain. Highs 17 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will be warmer again with perhaps a bit more sunshine in all areas, although cloud will be widespread to start the day. Lows 13 to 17 C and highs 19 to 24 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, with perhaps less of the humidity without much change in temperature, lows 12 to 16 and highs 18 to 25 C.

MONDAY will become partly sunny with lower humidity and somewhat cooler temperatures, lows 12 to 14 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will feature increasing cloud and highs near 22 C.

From late Tuesday to about Thursday of next week, cooler air will move in and highs on Wednesday and Thursday may be back down into the teens (15-19 C) with nights a few degrees cooler too. Some showers are likely, with a slight chance of heavier rainfall developing.

The pattern from then on appears rather unsettled and near average for temperatures, if perhaps a bit cool in the daytime hours, compensated by mild nights to reach near average overall.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a few sprinkles of light rain, clearing up slowly this evening. We won't see any phases of this eclipse here as the Sun does not rise until about the end of the event so that here, if the Sun happened to go dark at mid-day we would be seeing the Moon off to its left as it moves away on its journey around the earth. Although we think of the Moon following the Sun around in the sky and moving from east to west, it is moving east relative to the Sun around new moon. This is why every day it would appear to rise about an hour later and within two or three days it becomes visible in the evening sky.
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11-06-2021, 07:57   #6033
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 11 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, warm for about another week or so, rather dry although cloudy and humid especially in the west, with a slowly increasing chance of rain later in the outlook. The trend beyond the week we normally track is of course less reliable but it looks rather poor, hoping it will reverse.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in the east to mostly overcast in the west with a few more bright spells than has been the case recently. A few showers will pass by to the north, small amounts of rain likely with them however. Highs about 22 C in some parts of the east, 20 C midlands, 18 C south and west coasts and some parts of the north which will be clipped by a slightly cooler air mass briefly, but that won't make much progress south. Breezy at times, west-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr especially in areas close to the Atlantic.

TONIGHT could feature a few clear intervals but rather cloudy to the west and north again, lows 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will turn slightly warmer again with hazy sunshine in many areas, still some low cloud around especially early in the day, breaking up gradually by mid-day where it is a factor. A few coastal locations could remain under low cloud or sea fog but even by the sea there is some chance of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs could reach about 25 C in the east, and 19-22 C in other regions.

SUNDAY will start out warm and bright with some sunny intervals, then cloud will increase as a weak front arrives, bringing scattered showers, and a slight chance of a brief thunderstorm, nothing too heavy is expected from this, as the air mass coming in behind the front is almost identical to this current one. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C except a few degrees cooler near some coasts.

MONDAY will be a somewhat less humid day and could turn out quite sunny in places, the main difference between this new regime and the current one is humidity levels are going to drop a little, expect lows around 14 C and highs in the range of 19 to 23 C.

TUESDAY will probably be the last warm day for a while, as a more active front approaches, so with increasing cloud and a stronger southwest wind developing, rain may arrive later in the day, after highs near 23 C.

The OUTLOOK for the mid-week and later on towards the weekend of 19-20 June is for cooler weather, unsettled at times with threats of heavier rainfalls especially towards the following week. Highs will be back down into the teens and could be rather cool for late June, so a reversal of the current trend seems to be in store.

My local weather was rather cloudy again with a few moments of sunshine as clouds covered about 90% of the sky most of the day. This cooler air mass is feeding into a very strong disturbance over North Dakota and southern Manitoba, which has some severe storms and heavy rain producing cells developing overnight, with 35 C hot and humid air to the south of the border and temperatures closer to 18 C ahead of a warm front, so it could produce some flooding rainfalls in places. Some wind gusts to 130 km/hr were reported a few hours ago in western North Dakota and the radar imagery looks like heavy hail is in the mix too.
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Yesterday, 08:16   #6034
M.T. Cranium
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Saturday, 12 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 June, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 2 deg above normal, with the trend gradually declining from above normal values at first to below normal by end of the week. Eastern regions will be more likely to average above normal mainly because they will have considerably warmer temperatures in the first half, all regions will fall to about 2-4 below normal by about Friday of this coming week.
-- Rainfall will gradually increase to about 50-75 per cent of normal values in parts of the west and north but a lot of this rain is expected to dry up before reaching the east where 25 per cent of normal might be the limit.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values with closer to 50 per cent likely in cloudier coastal south, west and northwest.
-- Winds will pick up to more moderate values at times.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be rather cloudy but there will be a few intervals of warm sunshine in many areas by later this morning and early afternoon. Cloud will then increase again towards the late afternoon and evening with rain moving into some parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. Winds moderate southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs for many areas around 20-23 C but could reach 23-25 C in Leinster. Quite humid with the risk of sea fog becoming persistent near some south and west coast locations but rather hit or miss with some intervals of brighter weather possible there also.

TONIGHT will be overcast and muggy with intervals of light rain across parts of Ulster, Connacht and the midlands. This will amount to 3-5 mm in some places. Some fog or mist likely. Lows 13 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will once again turn somewhat brighter after a cloudy start in most places, and it will reach similar temperatures with highs 20-23 C for most, 23-25 C in a few spots near the east coast. Another front will develop and move into the west and north with occasional rain lasting overnight. This may have somewhat better chances of reaching the east and south at times overnight into early Monday but amounts will range from 5-10 mm in the north to trace values in some parts of the southeast. Quite humid making the relatively moderate temperatures feel oppressively warm to some.

MONDAY will then see this rain clearing away with a slightly fresher and less humid air mass with westerly breezes and some intervals of bright sunshine developing. Morning lows 14 to 18 C and afternoon highs 19 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will continue warm and dry for many especially the east and south, as a more significant front develops near the west coast and moves slowly further inland during the afternoon. Sporadic outbreaks of rain will develop with a rather sharp temperature drop expected in western regions. Morning lows 13 to 17 C, afternoon highs will reach 20 to 23 C in the southeast and east but readings near 19 C will fall to mid-teens in the west.

WEDNESDAY will have variable amounts of cloud, northerly breezes and some outbreaks of light rain possible, but heavy rain will form over France along the stalled out front and that rain will spread into parts of Britain where 20 to 40 mm amounts are possible. Ireland will likely see much less than that and some parts of the southeast may remain dry. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C in the south, 14 C in the north.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look like being quite cool days with scattered outbreaks of light rain in rather variable north to northeast winds, but with the tendency being for more rain to fall in the north than elsewhere, and the southeast could remain largely dry. Lows each day 6 to 9 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

SATURDAY (19th) will become overcast with rain becoming heavy at times and moving into all regions (this is a day beyond the scope of the "trends" forecast above). Amounts of 10-25 mm are projected for this front with strong and gusty south to southwest winds veering westerly, temperatures in the 15-18 C range.

Even cooler air is expected to flow in from the northwest after that front passes by Sunday and Monday (20th-21st) and temperatures could be back into the near-record cool category by then (similar to some parts of May). A conservative estimate would be lows of 5-7 C and highs of 13-16 C. Some places might see lower readings than that. So as I was mentioning yesterday, it looks like quite a reversal in the weather regime over the space of about ten days.

My local weather was overcast and quite cool for mid-June, highs only around 15 C. Rain is moving in overnight and is expected to be fairly persistent for parts of the weekend here. Luckily if you are new to these forecasts, "here" is about eight time zones west of where you're most likely to be reading this, so enjoy your relatively good weather while it lasts.
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Today, 07:58   #6035
M.T. Cranium
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Sunday, 13 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS remain similar, slightly cooler after warmth today, then more significantly cooler after mid-week, it should all average out near normal. Rain will be spotty at first but will begin to cover more of the east late in the week, even so few places will get more than half of a normal weekly rainfall. Sunshine will be fairly close to normal with drier air masses not as full of low cloud as recent days. Winds sometimes rather moderate.


FORECASTS


TODAY will feature some very warm sunny intervals in parts of the east and south, with the inland southeast looking most likely to hit the highest readings around 24-25 C. Further north and west, more cloud likely, leading to some sporadic light rain later on, but rather warm and humid there, highs 19-22 C. Rainfalls where they occur only about 2 to 5 mm.

TONIGHT some further advance of the rain is likely into parts of the midlands and northeast, rather spotty showers late overnight in the south and east. It will be a muggy night with lows only dropping to about 17-18 C in many areas.

MONDAY will see the weak front moving on during the morning hours leading to a bright and less humid day with pleasant temperatures around 20 C. Moderate westerly winds likely.

TUESDAY will start out dry with a few sunny intervals in the east and south, but cloud will arrive by mid-morning in the west followed by outbreaks of light rain. Lows of 12-15 C will be followed by highs in the 21-23 C range in parts of the east, near 20 C midlands, but falling back from 18 C to about 14 C in parts of the west as cooler air sets in there.

WEDNESDAY the cooling trend will advance into most other regions and there could be scattered outbreaks of light rain although guidance suggests largely dry in Ireland, as heavy rain will be more concentrated off to the southeast heading towards parts of Britain. It will be a fairly average temperature pattern with lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C in some parts of the east and south, 17 C north and west.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look just a bit cooler but with some sunny breaks, isolated showers and winds turning more to the northeast as that disturbance over Britain deepens slowly and moves towards the North Sea. While they get some heavy rain in places, Ireland will only have scattered 1-3 mm amounts. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C both days.

SATURDAY is likely to become wet as an Atlantic front merges with another low moving north out of France. Some time around the weekend (19th-20th) there could be outbreaks of heavy and possibly thundery rainfall in the east if these fronts stall over that part of the country. Temperatures will be fairly steady night and day in the 13-16 C range.

SUNDAY this rain may continue or else end around mid-day with a slow clearance, in areas further west. Staying rather cool with highs 13-16 C.

The following week looks rather unsettled and cool for late June with highs generally around 15-18 C. That takes us to near the end of June when it could turn quite wet.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with heavy cloud buildups over local hills that looked capable of generating thunderstorms but these clouds remained rather inactive anyway with just a few raindrops locally, probably some heavier showers over higher terrain nearby. It was a bit warmer with the sunny start to the day allowing temperatures to reach 20 C before it clouded over.

Had a view of a very thin crescent moon this evening in the west-northwest at sunset, barely catching any sun on its lower right portion but the "earthshine" from the reflection off Greenland and other northern ice made the rest of the moon's globe quite easy to see against the twilight sky.
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