Dublin Metro South vs Luas

salmocab · 05-02-2021 3:55pm

bk wrote: »

WFH = Working From Home, basically the OP is saying, going forward there will be a lot more people working remotely and working from home, at least a couple days a week and that it will take some of the overcrowding strain off Luas.

It might do, at least in the short term, though I suspect it will be counter balanced by new housing.

Yeah it might take the sting out in the short term but I don’t think WFH is going to be quite as widespread as some think.

05-02-2021 4:52pm

salmocab wrote: »

Yeah it might take the sting out in the short term but I don’t think WFH is going to be quite as widespread as some think.

Out of interest what do you work as? I'm in "tech" and while not everyone will be full-time a pretty massive amount will at least be part time WFH.

salmocab · 05-02-2021 4:54pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Out of interest what do you work as? I'm in "tech" and while not everyone will be full-time a pretty massive amount will at least be part time WFH.

I’m in facilities in a large MN bank and by the sounds of it most will be coming back full time with possibly some wiggle room in certain departments.

There is a tech firm in the next building and whilst they’ve been home since March they have actually taken extra space for when they return.

bk · 05-02-2021 5:37pm

salmocab wrote: »

I’m in facilities in a large MN bank and by the sounds of it most will be coming back full time with possibly some wiggle room in certain departments.

There is a tech firm in the next building and whilst they’ve been home since March they have actually taken extra space for when they return.

LOL, most of the big tech firms are looking to exit offices.

salmocab · 05-02-2021 5:50pm

bk wrote: »

LOL, most of the big tech firms are looking to exit offices.

I know, although did I read tik tok took extra space quite recently. Tech will certainly have lots WFH but I think lots in finance and other areas will have numbers back up when they can. Any help with reducing numbers travelling is to be welcomed I just don’t think it will be as big as some think. Some employers aren’t going to be comfortable with people sitting at home with access to things that are very confidential. Our traders sit in a way that other teams can’t see their screens, I don’t think the bank are too comfortable with them at home trading other people’s money and no idea who’s in the kitchen with them.

GT89 · 05-02-2021 6:40pm

bk wrote: »

The DART line serves areas that are about the same density as the Luas. The issue is more that half of the DARTs catchment area is the sea.

My point more was to show how ridiculous it is to call Luas "a dinky tram", when it carries so many people, one of the longest, most frequent and highest capacity tram lines in the world, which carries almost as many passengers as the entire IR network and gets the highest customer satisfaction ratings.

Luas has been a wild success, if we had the road space to build another dozen Luas lines we would fix Dublins transport problems overnight.

Not quite the stretch of Dart line South of Merrion Gates would be lower density than any of the Luas lines anyway large Georgian houses in Blackrock and Monkstown then a slight higher density from Dalkey to DL. Red line Luas is far higher density than either Dart or Green line. Highest density stretch on the DART would be Lansdowne Road to Howth Junction.

Also Luas stops are more easy to access than DART stations. But still a Metro would be preferable in my book. Sandyford to Swords should have been built as Metro from Day 1 imo would have saved a lot of hassle with closing the line and ties I and the like. But I guess we shouldn't cry over spilled milk.

vrusinov · 06-02-2021 2:48pm

bk wrote: »

LOL, most of the big tech firms are looking to exit offices.

Do you have examples? Most tech companies I'm aware of are still expanding office space.

I looked for around for new jobs in tech out of interest. Pretty much all interesting positions clearly say it's work from office post-covid, though more mention WFH for something like 1-3 days per week. I suspect we may see less demand for public transport into city on Mondays & Fridays but similar peaks on Tue-Thu.

Idbatterim · 06-02-2021 2:55pm

They cant even yive luas basic prioroty in the city centre, its a joke of a system given dublins scenario

hmmm · 06-02-2021 2:57pm

vrusinov wrote: »

I looked for around for new jobs in tech out of interest. Pretty much all interesting positions clearly say it's work from office post-covid, though more mention WFH for something like 1-3 days per week. I suspect we may see less demand for public transport into city on Mondays & Fridays but similar peaks on Tue-Thu.

Agree with this - most tech firms I know are looking at hybrid with on-site required for part of the week. However there is some interesting debate as to the point of this and whether they can find some other way to retain the big productivity gains a lot of firms have seen from remote work - they are looking at facilitating the social side of team-building (e.g. getting everyone together off-site), but allowing people do their actual work from anywhere. I know a number of smaller firms think offering remote work will be an important part of their ability to attract staff, and are planning for a remote-first future with an office only being used infrequently. I don't think this discussion is anywhere near finished, although I expect most workers are going to need to be within commuting distances of their offices.

We can't quite predict the future, but what is apparent is that there is some huge developments being planned along the Green line beyond Sandyford. Just look at the tower planned for Carrickmines, and the recent LAP has a future high-density area planned for near the race-course. And none of this makes any sense. We're packing thousands of people onto a very good light-rail system in the outer suburbs, and treating it as if it was heavy rail or a Metro. Our planners need to cop themselves on because they're living in la-la land at the moment.

By the time the Metro is built to Sandyford, we'll already need the Metro extending to Cherrywood in my opinion.

bk · 07-02-2021 1:29pm

vrusinov wrote: »

Do you have examples? Most tech companies I'm aware of are still expanding office space.

Pretty much every Fortune 50 tech company, including my own, is reducing office space significantly around the world.

Here is an example of Google in Dublin:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-s-withdrawal-from-dublin-office-deal-cast-doubts-on-sector-1.4348998

Of course I’m not saying all offices close and everyone works from home. I’d expect more of a hybrid model. Couple days a week at home, a couple in an office with flex desks.

Though some maybe full time remote, some companies (Twitter) are already allowing for this.

But this means less space needed, so where a company has multiple buildings in an office park or floors on a sky scraper, they may exit some, while keeping others.

It won’t happen overnight, these companies can often have long term rental contracts, like 10 to 20 years or own the building. So they can’t just exit straight away. It is more of a case that the won’t renew the lease when it comes up for a renewal or like the google example above, cancel a planned project before it goes ahead, as that costs nothing.

This will be a multi year change and will differ from company to company and position to position, but there are definitely big changes coming.

vrusinov · 07-02-2021 8:00pm

In case of Google it's not a reduction but more like slowdown of growth.

It's certain short-term there will be less demand for commercial property - simply because some companies will not survive the pandemic. So it makes sense to put current plans on hold. (Check who Google purchased Montevetro from and at what price). It's likely a good time to do something with metro as there may be a dip in demand and construction prices.

I just don't see enough signs for significant change in 2-5 years. Sure, Twitter announced something but they are small (~200 in Ireland?) and it seems they are still offering desk in office for their employees.

dowlingm · 11-02-2021 3:01pm

Working from home is not an obvious choice for everyone even part time for various reasons but I think it will offer opportunities for remote work to people who were told in the past for no good reason that they MUST work in the office. Given that public transport is perpetually running behind demand almost everywhere there will be a short period of relief. In Toronto some rail projects are being advanced, where possible, where demand has fallen to a bustitutable level. The realities of construction contracts don’t make it possible everywhere but the sharper operators will be distinguished by taking what opportunities do exist.

cgcsb · 11-02-2021 3:32pm

WFH should not be stopping projects that were warranted 40 years ago. Any relief provided to the transport system by WFH arrangements will quickly be gobbled up by growth. They used this excuse to scale back projects during the GFC, then 5 years later a return to heaving buses and trains.

Marcusm · 11-02-2021 11:24pm

bk wrote: »

Pretty much every Fortune 50 tech company, including my own, is reducing office space significantly around the world.

Here is an example of Google in Dublin:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-s-withdrawal-from-dublin-office-deal-cast-doubts-on-sector-1.4348998

Of course I’m not saying all offices close and everyone works from home. I’d expect more of a hybrid model. Couple days a week at home, a couple in an office with flex desks.

Though some maybe full time remote, some companies (Twitter) are already allowing for this.

But this means less space needed, so where a company has multiple buildings in an office park or floors on a sky scraper, they may exit some, while keeping others.

It won’t happen overnight, these companies can often have long term rental contracts, like 10 to 20 years or own the building. So they can’t just exit straight away. It is more of a case that the won’t renew the lease when it comes up for a renewal or like the google example above, cancel a planned project before it goes ahead, as that costs nothing.

This will be a multi year change and will differ from company to company and position to position, but there are definitely big changes coming.

That Google example is sui generis and not representative of anything. They only went for it as a stop gap due to delays at Bolands Mills and the Treasury Building. Those delays became irrelevant because of covid.

Commercial property in Dublin is uncertain with a mix of wfh, expansions, introduction of hot desking in some environments and a likely expansion in spacing between work stations in others.

The net effect of this is real crystal ball stuff except that WeWork is likely a dead concept!

bk · 12-02-2021 12:51pm

Marcusm wrote: »

That Google example is sui generis and not representative of anything. They only went for it as a stop gap due to delays at Bolands Mills and the Treasury Building. Those delays became irrelevant because of covid.

Commercial property in Dublin is uncertain with a mix of wfh, expansions, introduction of hot desking in some environments and a likely expansion in spacing between work stations in others.

The net effect of this is real crystal ball stuff except that WeWork is likely a dead concept!

I only pointed at the Google example as it was an Irish example and in the public domain.

Obviously I can't say too much, but I work for an extremely large company, which has told their staff that they can work remotely going forward, is busy trying to close offices around the world and yet is still growing in employee numbers.

What is being said in public and what is being said behind closed doors in CTO offices is very different. Companies are being slow to announce what is happening, because they want to try and sell off offices and exit lease contracts before the office market collapses.

Most of the biggest companies have billions in office property portfolios and they are being cautious with the up coming changes to try and limit financial damage to themselves.

Of course I'm not saying all offices will be gone, that would be silly. But the way people work is definitely radically changing.

bk · 12-02-2021 4:21pm

And some numbers published today:

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0212/1196692-hwbcs-2020-office-review/

- Take up of new office space in Dublin down 49% in 2020
- Rents down 10%

They also note lots of sub-letting come onto the market. This is what I'm getting at above, companies who own offices or have long term leases are trying to sub-let their office space as they shrink amount of office space.

Of course the company who compiled the report are trying to spin it positively, saying that they see it as temporary, etc. But I'd take that with a pinch of slat, keep in mind they are a property consultancy agency, they will be greatly impacted by a downturn in office space.

Though taking this back to the topic on hand, I don't think these changes should have any impact on Metro or other transport projects. We have such a large public transport deficit, that these changes shouldn't change the need for improved public transport, given our quickly growing population, etc.

M50Jct15 · 12-02-2021 10:11pm

My company which has a network of offices across the country told us today that they plan to close half the offices as rent agreements expire and the remaining offices will facilitate a partial "work from home" and some office visits.

And it isn't a tech company!

Things are changing permanently it would appear.

Zebra3 · 13-02-2021 10:56am

I think a lot will be determined by the jobs market.

If employers are chasing employees then giving them the option to WFH half the time can help their recruitment. It can also help companies in keeping wage costs down as well as rental costs. My mate is filling his car with petrol once every three months atm (some of that is obviously due to the fact that there's little to do) and his car insurance has been cut by 1/3. All that eases pressure on demands for higher salaries.

Idbatterim · 13-02-2021 12:50pm

Unlike last recession, the capital budget should not be slashed. Dunphy many of the nonsense hundreds of million euro rural road schemes if needs be, but not the game changers... of course, that wint be what happened here. It will be one Mickey mouse project for everyone in the audience.. Green way is more in vogue and cheaper than a metro, expect that be be the new reduced cost option put forward at some stage later this year....

bk · 13-02-2021 1:18pm

Idbatterim wrote: »

Unlike last recession, the capital budget should not be slashed. Dunphy many of the nonsense hundreds of million euro rural road schemes if needs be, but not the game changers... of course, that wint be what happened here. It will be one Mickey mouse project for everyone in the audience.. Green way is more in vogue and cheaper than a metro, expect that be be the new reduced cost option put forward at some stage later this year....

We aren't even in a recession, our economy continued to grow in 2020, the only one in Europe.

Of course that is a distorted GDP due to multinationals, but even at a governmental level and tax take level, things have been relatively ok.

Add to that negative interest rates and us even getting paid to take our debt, the current situation as personally terrible as it is, is nothing like the last recession from an infrastructure and capital perspective.

There is no reason why all of the major transport projects shouldn't continue to go ahead.

Marcusm · 19-02-2021 11:18pm

bk wrote: »

I only pointed at the Google example as it was an Irish example and in the public domain.

Obviously I can't say too much, but I work for an extremely large company, which has told their staff that they can work remotely going forward, is busy trying to close offices around the world and yet is still growing in employee numbers.

What is being said in public and what is being said behind closed doors in CTO offices is very different. Companies are being slow to announce what is happening, because they want to try and sell off offices and exit lease contracts before the office market collapses.

Most of the biggest companies have billions in office property portfolios and they are being cautious with the up coming changes to try and limit financial damage to themselves.

Of course I'm not saying all offices will be gone, that would be silly. But the way people work is definitely radically changing.

I absolutely agree that it is changing and there will be a large cohort who will only work a few days per week or less in an office. However, desk spacing, collaboration areas, larger break/refreshment areas, telephone booths, meeting rooms will all increase to facilitate home working. What is not know at this stage, and what will differ from environment to environment, is whether there will be a significant reduction in office space utilised. There will be fewer people, there will be fewer desks and they won’t be permanently allocated but some of the counterbalancing factors are not yet known.

Yurt2 · 25-02-2021 8:37pm

bk wrote: »

We aren't even in a recession, our economy continued to grow in 2020, the only one in Europe.

Of course that is a distorted GDP due to multinationals, but even at a governmental level and tax take level, things have been relatively ok.

Add to that negative interest rates and us even getting paid to take our debt, the current situation as personally terrible as it is, is nothing like the last recession from an infrastructure and capital perspective.

There is no reason why all of the major transport projects shouldn't continue to go ahead.

Agreed, capital projects are critical. The pandemic has turned economics on its head, and in Europe, even the most hardened 'tighten the belts' merchants have ran to the hills to hide. The austerity era is dead, if it ever really made sense in the first place. Invest in future productivity and quality of life projects.

We're probably entering an economic phase like Japan did after their bubble popped. And big-ticket infrastructure projects have kept the Japanese economy going. There's a lot of debt in Japan, but most of it is internally held and the place isn't going to go bust anytime soon. The only thing is, we're at the mercy of European monetary policy and interest rates that suit the center not the periphery (they're appropriate for us now, but that wont always be the case).

Dublin Metro South vs Luas

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