Property Market 2019

lawred2 · 30-08-2019 4:57pm

Cyrus wrote: »

for the record im in my 30s so my perspective isnt that of someone who bought their house in the 80s.

people do want everything nowadays and because society in general is as well off as it has ever been people want more and more.

the problem with everyone wanting the same thing is that they can't all afford it.

Is it the perspective of someone who wants for nothing because of Daddy?

Because the silver spoon types love to espouse such rhetoric as you're engaging in..

ELM327 · 30-08-2019 4:57pm

Cyrus wrote: »

for the record im in my 30s so my perspective isnt that of someone who bought their house in the 80s.

people do want everything nowadays and because society in general is as well off as it has ever been people want more and more.

the problem with everyone wanting the same thing is that they can't all afford it.

I'm in my 30's too, early 30's, and currently in the process of selling my first property to buy my second.

Cyrus wrote: »

society has changed, in the 80s the majority of wives didnt work and werent university educated. they are now, so guess what, a decent house in a decent suburb costs what two salaries can borrow not one.

Yes, that is a change, but taking my example, the £20k becomes £40k. Not €400k.

Cyrus · 30-08-2019 4:58pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it the perspective of someone who wants for nothing because of Daddy?

Because the silver spoon types love to espouse such rhetoric as you're engaging in..

no its the perspective of someone who went out and earned what he needed to to get what he wanted instead of whinging about how hard it was and how unfair it was

Cyrus · 30-08-2019 5:01pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes, that is a change, but taking my example, the £20k becomes £40k. Not €400k.

unfortunately the increase in prosperity of our trades people, govt taxation policy and new better building standards means that the cost of building the house you are talking about (large 4 bed semi ) is 3-400k. No one will build it if they cant sell it for more than that.

ELM327 · 30-08-2019 5:02pm

Cyrus wrote: »

no its the perspective of someone who went out and earned what he needed to to get what he wanted instead of whinging about how hard it was and how unfair it was

Like me?
Yet I also disagree with your tired clichés and lazy rhetoric

ELM327 · 30-08-2019 5:03pm

Cyrus wrote: »

unfortunately the increase in prosperity of our trades people, govt taxation policy and new better building standards means that the cost of building the house you are talking about (large 4 bed semi ) is 3-400k. No one will build it if they cant sell it for more than that.

Bunkum and hogwash. There's a fair bit of margin in building a semi D at 300-400k!

Cost doesn't increase tenfold in little over 3 decades.

Cyrus · 30-08-2019 5:04pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Like me?
Yet I also disagree with your tired clichés and lazy rhetoric

they arent my cliches, i just agreed with some of them.

i'm not sure what point you are making, you arent moaning about how hard it is? or you are but you are getting on with it anyway?

Cuddlesworth · 30-08-2019 5:04pm

awec wrote: »

Pretty much everyone saves all the time. While there is a section of society who unfortunately earn so little that they virtually live month-to-month,

Not really so sure about that. In the uk its around 50% that actually have savings. I would take a guess and say its not much different here than with our neighbours.

And for the type of saving current required to both rent and save up a deposit buy modest houses in urban areas, its possible for most but its not exactly a enjoyable life or really possible outside of theory.

Renting a room in shared accomodation in Dublin is what now, 600-800 a month? Monthly income for 35k is 2400 after tax. They could get their own apartment in a bad area for 200k? They just need a 80k deposit there. Thats easy, just pay rent, live off 100 Euros a week including bills and sacrifice for five and a half years. Ignoring the fact that if you actually needed to leave home for college and rent, not a chance your now in debt.

lawred2 · 30-08-2019 5:05pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Bunkum and hogwash. There's a fair bit of margin in building a semi D at 300-400k!

Cost doesn't increase tenfold in little over 3 decades.

many many things have increased tenfold in nominal cost in the last 3 decades

Cyrus · 30-08-2019 5:08pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Bunkum and hogwash. There's a fair bit of margin in building a semi D at 300-400k!

Cost doesn't increase tenfold in little over 3 decades.

you can go to any of the online calculators, or read cairn or glenveaghs annual reports, of course there will be margin in it you have to make money for any entrepreneurial endeavor, but its not as if the local councils are building them any cheaper.

SozBbz · 30-08-2019 5:25pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Bunkum and hogwash. There's a fair bit of margin in building a semi D at 300-400k!

Cost doesn't increase tenfold in little over 3 decades.

People are totally missing the point about the 80’s.

Single income v double income for one, but secondly the interest rates were orders of magnitude of what they are today. Inflation was rampant, our whole economy was on the verge and we were viewed as a bit of a basket case internally. Inward migration was basically nil.

Also houses in the 80s were not built to the standards that we expect today. There standard of materials that goes into today’s builds is serious, let alone how trades people now expect to be paid.
I know they were probably fundamentally sound, but they didn’t typically come with bells and whistles like underfloor heating and surround sound wired in.

SozBbz · 30-08-2019 5:35pm

There has literally only been one point in history that buying property was extremely easy, and that was during the Celtic tiger years.

110% mortgage- you got it! Buying off plans - great idea! 9/10 x your income, why not! Building standards? Don’t be such a buzz kill! just build like there’s no tomorrow!

We all know how that ended.

Anyone buying a home should have some skin in the game. That will be easier for some than for others. Some will have well off parents, some people are just good savers, and for some it will mean making a really conscious effort.

But the alternatives are worse. Relaxing the CB rules would be a disaster (saying this even though I personally would benefit but I don’t see it as good for society). Giving more grants etc would also have the same outcome. You can even see this by virtue of the prices now being charged for new builds versus existing stock. The HTB has assisted the construction industry but it has also increased the amount of money chasing those houses.

duffman13 · 30-08-2019 7:45pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Bunkum and hogwash. There's a fair bit of margin in building a semi D at 300-400k!

Cost doesn't increase tenfold in little over 3 decades.

Interesting article from 2016, it's not as bad as you make out but an obvious change in the landscape between the 80s and 2016, obviously we've seen 3 more years of growth since this was written but an interesting read regardless

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/sorry-millennials-buying-a-home-was-just-as-hard-for-your-parents-1.2862014

99problems1 · 31-08-2019 2:05pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Why do several posters think there is something wrong with having an expectation to (reasonably) close to work, have a bit of a life in terms of going out to cinema and for a meal once a week, while having a 2/3 small city breaks to see the world.

Everyone works for 40 years and gets only 20-25 leave. It's not unreasonable to expect people to want a decent lifestyle in return for that.

Yes we can't have everything given to us but if you are willing to work hard for 40 years, I think asking for a roof over your head and non extravagant lifestyle isn't unreasonable at all.

Because you're talking as if that should be the expectation for someone on an average or less wage...

Now, what would happen if everyone could easily have such a great life? People would work harder, give up some of those sacrifices and then get MORE, get a bigger house, more expensive holidays...then enough people would do it so the average lifestyle would move up and then the ones on average wages would want more and it's a constant cycle.

It's the same thing with people wanting the minimum wage to go up to 12 euro or whatever. What happens the people on 12 euro? They suddenly go from 2 euro above minimum wage to being the lowest earners. So they demand more money, and everyone up the ladder does. Then prices go up! So the people on 12 euro are still relatively in the same position.

BTW you can do all that you mentioned, just don't expect to decide in a month you want a mortgage and get one.

99problems1 · 31-08-2019 2:49pm

Can people stop complaining about how "easy" it was in the 80's, how you could get a mortgage for a 20k house and that was one salary.

I can tell you now not every one was earning 20k a year. Back then that would have been a big wedge.

Plus Ireland was a place people left in their droves to leave. If life was so great and everything so easy why was there massive emigration?

Then there's the fact there's better services and amenities close by to houses these days. In the 80s you didn't have a state of the art GAA pitch with global musicians playing there, great motorways allowing easy access between cities, building standards were worse back then..

TheSheriff · 31-08-2019 5:17pm

Was at three viewings today in the 350-400k region in South dublin, lots of interest, but for us they were incredibly overpriced for what you get. We went purely for interest, I think we know South Dublin is not for us.

Similarly we went to view one last week, a two bed in bray for 300k, it needed ~100k work to bring it up to standard. I pity the person who buys it at that price tag to be honest .

Thargor · 31-08-2019 6:05pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was at three viewings today in the 350-400k region in South dublin, lots of interest, but for us they were incredibly overpriced for what you get. We went purely for interest, I think we know South Dublin is not for us.

Similarly we went to view one last week, a two bed in bray for 300k, it needed ~100k work to bring it up to standard. I pity the person who buys it at that price tag to be honest .

Got a link to the Bray one? I was looking in Bray for the last couple of years but Im close to giving up now, its just not worth it. Im going to see if my company will send me to the US or Germany for a year or two instead.

Cyrus · 31-08-2019 7:30pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was at three viewings today in the 350-400k region in South dublin, lots of interest, but for us they were incredibly overpriced for what you get. We went purely for interest, I think we know South Dublin is not for us.

Similarly we went to view one last week, a two bed in bray for 300k, it needed ~100k work to bring it up to standard. I pity the person who buys it at that price tag to be honest .

Where in south Dublin for that kind of money ?

Samuel T. Cogley · 31-08-2019 7:38pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Where in south Dublin for that kind of money ?

Kimmage, Crumlin, Inchicore, Rathfarnham, loads of places.

pearcider · 31-08-2019 7:43pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was at three viewings today in the 350-400k region in South dublin, lots of interest, but for us they were incredibly overpriced for what you get. We went purely for interest, I think we know South Dublin is not for us.

Similarly we went to view one last week, a two bed in bray for 300k, it needed ~100k work to bring it up to standard. I pity the person who buys it at that price tag to be honest .

Keep your powder dry. There has been tremendous volatility in the international markets this summer...normally the crashes come in the autumn. Just like the Dow Jones, this market is only going one way. It’s almost certain that the government will be forced to raise taxes in October. This will lower property prices.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 31-08-2019 8:08pm

In 2007, did property prices fall overnight by 50pc or was it over the space of a year or years?

celtic_oz · 31-08-2019 8:18pm

celtic_oz · 31-08-2019 8:21pm

Gloomtastic! · 31-08-2019 9:39pm

celtic_oz wrote: »

See that peak in red right there? That’s exactly when we bought our house.

Dolbhad · 31-08-2019 10:12pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

In 2007, did property prices fall overnight by 50pc or was it over the space of a year or years?

No - the market was it’s lowest around 2012. Even in 2012/2013 those who could buy were debating would they keep waiting (I worked in property then) as it seemed to be the belief that it would keep crashing. But economy started to pick up.

It’s normal to have slight ups and downs in a property market but for some reason, Ireland can’t see to find that balance yet.

VonLuck · 31-08-2019 10:12pm

celtic_oz wrote: »

So we're at the point of optimism. Great!

Bez Bing · 31-08-2019 10:24pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Kimmage, Crumlin, Inchicore, Rathfarnham, loads of places.

There's not much in Rathfarnham at that price.

Mad_maxx · 31-08-2019 10:29pm

pearcider wrote: »

TheSheriff wrote: »

Was at three viewings today in the 350-400k region in South dublin, lots of interest, but for us they were incredibly overpriced for what you get. We went purely for interest, I think we know South Dublin is not for us.

Similarly we went to view one last week, a two bed in bray for 300k, it needed ~100k work to bring it up to standard. I pity the person who buys it at that price tag to be honest .

Keep your powder dry. There has been tremendous volatility in the international markets this summer...normally the crashes come in the autumn. Just like the Dow Jones, this market is only going one way. It’s almost certain that the government will be forced to raise taxes in October. This will lower property prices.

What has that to do with the Irish property market?

Equity markets dropped by 40% from the year 2000 to 2002, property in Ireland didn't drop at all, equity markets correct far more often than property markets, 2008 was an anamoly

Horusire · 31-08-2019 10:31pm

VonLuck wrote: »

celtic_oz wrote: »

So we're at the point of optimism. Great!

I think more like anxiety. That's how I feel about buying atm

pearcider · 01-09-2019 12:14am

Mad_maxx wrote: »

What has that to do with the Irish property market?

Equity markets dropped by 40% from the year 2000 to 2002, property in Ireland didn't drop at all, equity markets correct far more often than property markets, 2008 was an anamoly

2008 was a warning not an anomaly. When US property crashed in 2006 Ireland wasn’t far behind. The financials are a good indicator for property as that represents their collateral. Look at the major European banks share price in the last two years. They are all in serious trouble. Bank of Ireland is down 50% but even the biggest HSBC is down 50% in the last two years. Banco Santander is down a similar amount as is Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. If the property market was in any way healthy they would be doing well. They aren’t.

But the primary near term risk I see is Ireland having to significantly tighten fiscal policy post Brexit. This will undermine confidence too which along with credit availability is ultimately what fixes property prices. It actually has precious little to do with earnings.

Property Market 2019

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