UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

SlowBlowin · 08-09-2019 12:38pm

I came out even following your advice of Felder, but I thought it was very close.

If the odds are the similar for Tony Furgesson/Kahbib then I will be doing the same again I think.

tinpib · 13-09-2019 4:56pm

Doing my usual value hunting for small stakes for interest.

Uriah Hall at 3.0, going from memory he looked like the old Uriah in his last fight which he won, although he is 35 now.

Michel Pereira has only 1 UFC fight, his opponent Connelly fighting in front of a home crowd has 0 but at best price 5.5 maybe he will have the night of his life.

In the main event I'm actually warming to Cerrone having thought him a bit of a toolwhacker for years. I think it's a coin toss between them, they will both stand and bang, land shots and eat shots, so I'll take the 2.62 on Cerrone on B365 though 2.7 is available.

SlowBlowin · 13-09-2019 9:49pm

I think early "Daddy" Cerone would cruise past Justin, but after his last fight I am not so sure. He reinvented himself and was gunning for the title, now hes back where he was (ish). At his age that might be enough for the shear toughness of Justin to prevail. As you say, I can't call it.

I do believe though it is going to be bloody, edge of the seat stuff.

Mellor · 14-09-2019 5:15am

Gaethje will rip the liver off him.
TKO in rd 2 or 3

shrapnel222 · 14-09-2019 12:49pm

Mellor wrote: »

Gaethje will rip the liver off him.
TKO in rd 2 or 3

Went for round 3. At 10/1

mailburner · 14-09-2019 1:12pm

If justin goes after cerrone the same way he want after barboza I think cerrone will do well to get out of round one

rnd one is 7/2, two is 5/1
coupled at 31/20 (888)

mailburner · 14-09-2019 10:10pm

anyone have any fancies for later?

here's what I'm thinking

firstly a value bet maybe?
carlos junior has 10 wins 8 by sub 2 by dec
hall has never been subbed although it seems he's been paired with
nothing but strikers so even at 5/1 I'm wondering if it's worth the risk to
take jnr on points

gonna go with gaethje to win in round one or two at 31/20 as my main bet but to have a saver on three at 8/1

very surprised that texeira is the underdog v krylov who's biggest scalp was osp, outside of that he hasn't beaten any top fighters
tex has only lost to the very best.
was thinking tex by sub but 2/1 is a miserable price on that, was thinking at least 3s

SlowBlowin · 14-09-2019 11:17pm

I just cant find a bet that has value that interests me..

I can't call the cowboy fight, I can both see Justin steam rolling Cowboy in the first, and also Cowboy taking him out with a head kick in the second or third. BUT I think its too early for Cowboy to be fighting following his beating, and the weigh in bothered me he seemed weird.

Can't call anything, I have lost the ability to bet, going to sit this one out.

mailburner · 14-09-2019 11:46pm

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I just cant find a bet that has value that interests me..

I can't call the cowboy fight, I can both see Justin steam rolling Cowboy in the first, and also Cowboy taking him out with a head kick in the second or third. BUT I think its too early for Cowboy to be fighting following his beating, and the weigh in bothered me he seemed weird.

Can't call anything, I have lost the ability to bet, going to sit this one out.

A small part of me thinks this too only if cowboy gets past the first though which is stopping me having a bigger bet on justin
If justin is aggressive early I think he'll get cowboy outa there in the first.

I think it's way too early for cowboy also possibly fighting the most dangerous guy left in the division which makes me more confident about justin getting it done early
It just a bad fight for cowboy no matter how you look at it
I really don't feel he can go to war with justin for two rounds and come out strong like dustin and eddie did later

SlowBlowin · 14-09-2019 11:55pm

I hope Cowboy comes in sweating else he will start too slow to survive Justin.

mailburner · 15-09-2019 1:05am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I hope Cowboy comes in sweating else he will start too slow to survive Justin.

ah you know what Justin will ko cowby, I just know he will

I just lost my balls on pettis v diaz and on moraes v cejudo so I'm just doubting myself but yeah justin will ko cowboy

I'll give up gambling on mma for the year otherwise and save myself a few quid

mailburner · 15-09-2019 3:50am

mailburner wrote: »

anyone have any fancies for later?

here's what I'm thinking

firstly a value bet maybe?
carlos junior has 10 wins 8 by sub 2 by dec
hall has never been subbed although it seems he's been paired with
nothing but strikers so even at 5/1 I'm wondering if it's worth the risk to
take jnr on points

gonna go with gaethje to win in round one or two at 31/20 as my main bet but to have a saver on three at 8/1

very surprised that texeira is the underdog v krylov who's biggest scalp was osp, outside of that he hasn't beaten any top fighters
tex has only lost to the very best.
was thinking tex by sub but 2/1 is a miserable price on that, was thinking at least 3s

Gaethje gets it done in the first

carlos loses a split

tex wins a split, no bet on tex sub as the price was too low

mailburner · 20-09-2019 11:20pm

Any thoughts on jeremy v yair?

I like the evens on jeremy or the 7/4 by ko and in betting terms the bookies
can't split these two at all.

been thinking jeremy for quite a while now.
He's fought the best and he's given much better fighters than yair problems.
I think yair can only win this on pts.

Yair pulled that last win out of his arse with a second to spare, got owned
by edgar where jeremy caused edgar problems and his previous two
wins were a split against caceres a ko of penn.
I look back now and wonder how he beat the likes of hooker though?

I've always been on the fence with yair and tomorrow I think he'll struggle.
He has the home fans on his side which might help a little but for me he's a fighter that won't go too much higher up the ladder.

tinpib · 21-09-2019 9:46am

Usual small stakes value bets tonight although not a whole pile out there.

I'm breaking my golden rule by betting on the UFC newcomer Camelossi vs the terrible UFC veteren Angela Hill. Add in your standard odds booster of female fights going to decision and she is at 2.62 on B365.

In 2 close fights the Mexican fighter is slight outsider so in front of a huge home crowd i think that could lift 1/both of them to victory.

Marco Polo Reyes at 2.0
Brandon Moreno 2.4

SlowBlowin · 21-09-2019 10:35pm

I have always admired Jeremy Stevens ever since he got the selfie with Connors mum, has to be one of the best UFC wind ups ever.

The card really does not excite me, with only the Stevens fight of interest, so its a straight bet at evens (21/20).

mailburner · 21-09-2019 11:56pm

I've taken moreno by sub at 6/1 for value, not sure why he's double the sub odds of his opponent who's making his ufc debut
he also has 10 sub wins v his opponents 7 and has subbed decent
fighters like smolka and ortiz

paul craig won earlier, sub was 10/3, fought much better guys than his opponent was was a point bigger and had more sub wins....couldn't pull
the trigger on craig myself though

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 12:11am

Was looking at the moreno by sub bet (after reading your post) but cant get better than 3/1 with my accounts...

mailburner · 22-09-2019 12:16am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Was looking at the moreno by sub bet (after reading your post) but cant get better than 3/1 with my accounts...

you sure it's not the other lad?

not seen anything less than 9/2 going by oddschecker

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 12:22am

My mistake, I was looking at sub/ko/tko odds.

SlowBlowin · 22-09-2019 2:42am

I was lucky I didn't find the odds on that sub bet.

mailburner · 22-09-2019 2:43am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

I was lucky I didn't find the odds on that sub bet.

:D

Thought he had it sunk in there in the third, only time it
Looked like happening

Mellor · 22-09-2019 4:12am

Accidentally hit a bet on Jeremy Stephens last night. Tried to cancel and confirmed it. Oofff

mailburner · 28-09-2019 6:50pm

rountree 10/11 very impressive last time out, put on a clinic

smaller on roundtree pts 4/1

Whelo79 · 28-09-2019 7:16pm

Gunni is evens to get the win and 11/2 to win by sub. Those odds for the sub win seem very high.

mailburner · 28-09-2019 7:19pm

tempted by dalby at 13/10 but couldnt pull the trigger

was thinking the sub at 10s might be overpriced also

eagle eye · 28-09-2019 7:55pm

Did a small double on Gunni to win by sub at 13/2 and Hermansson to win in round 1 at 16/5.

Fromvert · 28-09-2019 8:15pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

Gunni is evens to get the win and 11/2 to win by sub. Those odds for the sub win seem very high.

Gilbert Burns is an extremely good grappler. Doubt either gets submitted unless they're taking a lot of damage.

mailburner · 28-09-2019 8:16pm

Osp sub was 9/2. Big in hindsight

I'd be surprised if gunni Gilbert doesn't go the distance
Think they'll cancel each other out

mailburner · 28-09-2019 8:40pm

mailburner wrote: »

rountree 10/11 very impressive last time out, put on a clinic

smaller on roundtree pts 4/1

yuk

tactics were spot on though

last throw of the dice

hermansson sub
gunni fight to go the distance
3.17/1 (skyb)

Whelo79 · 28-09-2019 8:46pm

Fromvert wrote: »

Gilbert Burns is an extremely good grappler. Doubt either gets submitted unless they're taking a lot of damage.

Yeah I talked myself or of putting the bet on. Burns is a serious grappler alright.

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING