Property Market 2020

beauf wrote: »

There will be downturn no doubt.

The downturn has already begun. The rental bubble will burst. Some people just don't want to accept that.
When was the last time the Irish Times had a segment on here's what sold in Dx for €xxxk?

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I did, unless I actually have the 53K saved when applying they can't alter the exemption for some reason. Maybe its because I'm a single applicant.

Like its absolutely ridiculous. Have a good career, good prospects etc in a company that employs around 35,000 globally.

I'm a 10 minute drive from work in the place where I grew up.

Its just ****ing frustrating. I have the 25K good to go and renting at the same time.

I can understand the 3.5 rule for some jobs but I'm getting absolutely shafted.

There is companies that employ 100,000 globally that have cut numbers. Don't think that because the company is a household name that individuals cant lose their job. Always consider that you are expendable to a business. That's just the nature of business . The rules are their to protect you and the bank.

Willfully looking to get into more debt because you think your employment is infallible is madness

garhjw wrote: »

Why? Where will all the additional supply come from? There is a serious shortage of accommodation and a few extra Air BnBs won’t move the dis much. There won’t be mass emigration although immigration will likely slow as MNCs re-evaluate plans short term.

I have seen a few places this week drop thier rents by over 10%.

The rental market is quicker to react to economic shocks than the property market. Money lost on an empty rented house is lost forever. Landlords are price takers. There is no point in them picking an arbitrary rent which they believe thier property should rent for if it means it sitting empty for months.

But people selling houses seem more stubborn to reduce prices. They might think this Corona effect will be temporary etc and be reluctant to take much of what they could have got before Corona. A 20% reduction might be over a years net income to alot so obviously a seller will be slow to accept they have just lost that amount in a space of a few weeks. But eventually if they want to sell they will have to take the market price which will have been effected by Corona

ittakestwo wrote: »

I have seen a few places this week drop thier rents by over 10%.

The rental market is quicker to react to economic shocks than the property market. Money lost on an empty rented house is lost forever. Landlords are price takers. There is no point in them picking an arbitrary rent which they believe thier property should rent for if it means it sitting empty for months.

But people selling houses seem more stubborn to reduce prices. They might think this Corona effect will be temporary etc and be reluctant to take much of what they could have got before Corona. A 20% reduction might be over a years net income to alot so obviously a seller will be slow to accept they have just lost that amount in a space of a few weeks. But eventually if they want to sell they will have to take the market price which will have been effected by Corona

With sellers taking their houses off the market, supply will eventually decline because who would build new houses when their completed cost is higher than the markets perception of 'value'. This is what happened after the GFC. There was very little construction and as more and more people found work as economic conditions slowly improved, they started buying again. Rinse and repeat. Once the stock of distressed mortgage sales are depleted, supply will again be tight and the prices will likely rise again.

Why do you consider property owners 'stubborn' who decline to sell their asset at below cost? or replacement value? Iwon't be putting my property on the market for less than replacement value.

Nijmegen wrote: »

What ye are discussing - that sellers will take their houses off the market - is precisely normally functioning supply and demand. Some of you are fighting the last war in looking at 2008 and thinking the same will happen here. 2008 was a property driven bust, so prices corrected big time - we are still something like 20% off the peak even now.

In a normally functioning market with a recession, supply is still extraordinarily low versus demand. Some of that demand will fall away though we are uncertain if this will be a short or a long term effect. But so too will some supply fall away as households refuse to sell up. The only way prices are coming down is if the demand for household formation collapses below supply of new builds, which it is well documented is far off the current demand. Lots of folks renting who still want a mortgage and to start a family and lots of folks living with their parents saving who are going to want to buy.

Comparing this to 2008 and expecting massive drops I’m just not sure is justified at this point, when this could still be a V shaped downturn based on the support policymakers and central banks are lining up at this time.

It can’t be v shaped because we are at the end of the largest credit bubble in history and the central banks are out of ammo. This is order of magnitudes worse than 2008. But in one way it is a continuation of this credit bubble that burst in 2008 remember where I said the bad debts of 2008 were transferred to government (central bank) balance sheets. So we are going right back there and then some.

We already have data though 3.2 million on the dole queue in the the US..With those numbers last week it’s looking much worse than 1929. The boomers are going to be completely wiped out. But let’s just wait for the horrendous data to bear my thesis out. GDP data will be out in April and should be around -5 as we had 2 decent months. Daft rental report will be interesting too. US GDP Q2 is an absolute wipeout though pick your number it could be -25%...which will dwarf the previous record -10%.

awec wrote: »

This is Ireland. There will not be lots of forced sales. Getting people out of their PPRs is incredibly difficult, even if they go years without paying a cent off the mortgage.

That is my point, if we had 18% unemployment this does not mean there will also be massive drops in properties prices, because there is no necessity for owners to sell in order to buy back the mortgage. in a normal market property those who cannot maintain their mortgage would lose their house and that unit comes back into the market increasing supply. We have very strong home owner protection laws and this is only going to be strengthened by this emergency legislation.

I don’t believe we will see massive drops because there is no incentive for owners to sell their properties if the prices tank as there will be no necessity for them to sell. If I own a house that was worth 300k in January and wanted to trade up, why would I sell it in the coming months for 240k (20% reduction)? Until such time as I do, the loss isn’t a reality, hence why owner occupiers aren’t not too concerned about price fluctuation. You will of course have people who need to sell for various reasons such as divorce, probate and these sale may drive prices down, but I don’t believe there will be sufficient volume in these sales to tank the market.

Beside Armageddon what do other people see as the reasons why owners will start to sell their properties at a discount?

imo the big unknown is will all the big U.S. multinational company's stay put in this country .Trump will do his best to force them to return jobs back home .Looking back there was a big slump in house prices after 9/11 ,this was at the beginning of the celtic tiger and was short lived .

cnocbui wrote: »

Why do you consider property owners 'stubborn' who decline to sell their asset at below cost? or replacement value? Iwon't be putting my property on the market for less than replacement value.

The market will dictate the value of the house. There is a lot of houses where the replacement value is higher than the value of the property.

Look at the value of property in Leitrim. Every house I see for sale is asking is less than €1000sqm, which is below replacement value even if the ground of the house was free. If you own a house in Leitrim and want to sell it, you have to accept that or else you wont sell.

Also in Dublin a lot of new builds are asking €4000 sqm and over which is way above replacement value anyway. There still a lot of room for falls in prices and still be above replacement value.

There was developments been constructed in 2014 when prices were about 20% below February 2020 so I dont see why prices could not fall back that much.

A seller is stubborn if they're not willing to accept what the market will now pay and keep the price unchanged despite the economic shock. We saw how badly the stubborn seller did in the last recession.... had their house on the market for years with reductions constantly behind the curve... what was the point? The more dynamic seller who accepts the situation and is first to undercut the competition will do the best in terms of getting a sale done and moving on.

ittakestwo wrote: »

The market will dictate the value of the house. There is a lot of houses where the replacement value is higher than the value of the property.

Look at the value of property in Leitrim. Every house I see for sale is asking is less than €1000sqm, which is below replacement value even if the ground of the house was free. If you own a house in Leitrim and want to sell it, you have to accept that or else you wont sell.

Also in Dublin a lot of new builds are asking €4000 sqm and over which is way above replacement value anyway. There still a lot of room for falls in prices and still be above replacement value.

There was developments been constructed in 2014 when prices were about 20% below February 2020 so I dont see why prices could not fall back that much.

A seller is stubborn if they're not willing to accept what the market will now pay and keep the price unchanged despite the economic shock. We saw how badly the stubborn seller did in the last recession.... had their house on the market for years with reductions constantly behind the curve... what was the point? The more dynamic seller who accepts the situation and is first to undercut the competition will do the best in terms of getting a sale done and moving on.

This is an excellent post.

If all the houses around you (assuming all are comparable) are now offering 10% discounts, it doesn't mean yours is worth more because you had an EA tell you a few months it was. The house is worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

You could wait years to find someone who thinks its worth what you do.

I could see a lot of landlords selling their rental properties, due to taking pay cuts in their salaries at work or taking a heavy hit to the businesses they run. Also landlords will be left without rent from tenants for up to six months, with little or no repercussions to said tenants. When these landlords getting out of the game sell, they’ll take what they can get, as they’ll need the money badly. Obviously not all landlords enter this category.