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Property Market 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Once again I ask you why would they go home the same problems that would exist at home as they would in Ireland .

    They can stay with parents etc at home. many are young and single. Even a few thousand going would cause a drop in rents.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    They can stay with parents etc at home. many are young and single. Even a few thousand going would cause a drop in rents.

    I really doubt it.

    This will come to an end.

    There are 20 seperate projects to find a vaccine, at least 2 of which are at human testing already. They are estimating September.

    They are also finding existing drugs can have a positive effect on the virus - ie drugs that are already passed safe to use. I heard on Pat Kenny this morning about an anti inflammatory drug for arthritis thats had 80% effect on inflammation in the lungs and drastically cut the mortality rate of those treated. So, perfectly safe, available immediately, its just an off lable use of a drug if you will, that improves outcomes. They also mentioned virus blocking drugs that were developed in the Ebola crisis a few years back and how they're looking to have some impact on Covid19.

    This is temporary. This will pass. We will be ahead of it for next year.

    Necessity is the mother of invention and all that.

    People are not going to uproot their whole lives for something that is not permanent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Emigration

    People go away if jobs becomes available somewhere else, or they go back home where they may have a family house to live in
    A shrinking economy is not going to draw people

    But everyones economy is going to shrink because of this. In fact, Ireland are doing well so far, 30 odd cases and no deaths. Even when you extrapolate it out for population, we're better off than the likes of France and Germany right now.

    Sure, a few may go home, but that involes flying in most cases and if they're from Brazil or something thats expensive. They could equally just see themselves as better off battoning down the hatches for a few weeks and sticking it out here. I know what I think is more likely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    SozBbz wrote: »
    I really doubt it.

    This will come to an end.

    There are 20 seperate projects to find a vaccine, at least 2 of which are at human testing already. They are estimating September.

    They are also finding existing drugs can have a positive effect on the virus - ie drugs that are already passed safe to use. I heard on Pat Kenny this morning about an anti inflammatory drug for arthritis thats had 80% effect on inflammation in the lungs and drastically cut the mortality rate of those treated. So, perfectly safe, available immediately, its just an off lable use of a drug if you will, that improves outcomes. They also mentioned virus blocking drugs that were developed in the Ebola crisis a few years back and how they're looking to have some impact on Covid19.

    This is temporary. This will pass. We will be ahead of it for next year.

    Necessity is the mother of invention and all that.

    People are not going to uproot their whole lives for something that is not permanent.


    The virus won't be permanent but the economy will take a hit for the good while.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SozBbz wrote: »
    I really doubt it.

    This will come to an end.

    There are 20 seperate projects to find a vaccine, at least 2 of which are at human testing already. They are estimating September.

    They are also finding existing drugs can have a positive effect on the virus - ie drugs that are already passed safe to use. I heard on Pat Kenny this morning about an anti inflammatory drug for arthritis thats had 80% effect on inflammation in the lungs and drastically cut the mortality rate of those treated. So, perfectly safe, available immediately, its just an off lable use of a drug if you will, that improves outcomes. They also mentioned virus blocking drugs that were developed in the Ebola crisis a few years back and how they're looking to have some impact on Covid19.

    This is temporary. This will pass. We will be ahead of it for next year.

    Necessity is the mother of invention and all that.

    People are not going to uproot their whole lives for something that is not permanent.

    The old soft landing theory like in 2007.

    Let's be honest. If the US tanks then we will all suffer.

    The problem with the US is this:

    The 2019 deficit was an estimated 4.7% GDP, up from 3.9% GDP in 2018 and 3.5% GDP in 2017


    So any downturn will lead to problems very quickly.

    Trumps economic policies are idiotic and will cause a lot of problems as soon as any downturn happens.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Only positive thing about Coronavirus is, that it’ll cripple public finances.
    No more social housing pipe dreams and xmas bonuses for lifetime dolers :)
    When SF come into power (which will eventually happen) they'll fail like any other left wing government....


  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭J_1980


    I disagree and it is still in freefall. It is reflecting a potential lack of demand/hit to rents it receives as companies potentially move towards home office work for the coronavirus scare and beyond. https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM Look at the 1YR, 3YR and 5YR graphs; it is back to where it was in May 2017 right now and seems to still be dropping. For context, the high in the last 5 years was only in December, 2019. Today it is 28% lower since then.

    IRES far outperformed actual house price growth from mid17 onwards. It’s just back there. Most of the big drops (11th Dec19 -7% /27thFeb20 -6%) were on the back of rent freeze law news.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    The old soft landing theory like in 2007.

    Let's be honest. If the US tanks then we will all suffer.

    What are you even talking about?

    How is facts about how viruses behave and the steps the scientific community are making to stop this particular one anything to do with 2007? This is temporary and has a specific identifiable cause. It is not an economic house of cards falling over.

    If you want to always believe the worst, then thats your prerogative, but I'll thank you not to quote my posts as an excuse to spout irrelevant nonsense thats nothing to do with what I said.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    SozBbz wrote: »
    What are you even talking about?

    How is facts about how viruses behave and the steps the scientific community are making to stop this particular one anything to do with 2007? This is temporary and has a specific identifiable cause. It is not an economic house of cards falling over.

    If you want to always believe the worst, then thats your prerogative, but I'll thank you not to quote my posts as an excuse to spout irrelevant nonsense thats nothing to do with what I said.

    1. Europe was struggling badly before the virus came along.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulSommerville/status/1237696060509884416

    2. The USA is in a really bad position to deal with a downturn. The idiot Trump has the budget deficit up to 4.7% of GDP.

    3. The national debts of many Western countries are over 80% of GDP.

    4. It's pure guesswork to suggest it's temporary. Nobody can say that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    1. Europe was struggling badly before the virus came along.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulSommerville/status/1237696060509884416

    2. The USA is in a really bad position to deal with a downturn. The idiot Trump has the budget deficit up to 4.9% of GDP.

    3. It's pure guesswork to suggest it's temporary. Nobody can say that.

    Read my post - it was purely about the virus.

    And yes, scientists are confident we will overcome it, this is not some new normal that we have to all radically adjust our lives forever. Not to say we won't have a bad few weeks ahead, but its not forever.

    If you want to bang on about other external factors, go ahead, just please don't quote me like I've anything to do with it.

    Also its pure scaremongering to suggest its not temporary when the scientific community all state that this will run its course (like all the other iterations of the corona virus have done in the past)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    J_1980 wrote: »
    Only positive thing about Coronavirus is, that it’ll cripple public finances.
    No more social housing pipe dreams and xmas bonuses for lifetime dolers :)
    When SF come into power (which will eventually happen) they'll fail like any other left wing government....

    It could also cause investors to pull their money as they get spooked and be forced to sell their built-to-let apartment blocks to individual purchasers which of course would be great news.


  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭J_1980


    It could also cause investors to pull their money as they get spooked and be forced to sell their built-to-let apartment blocks to individual purchasers which of course would be great news.

    They are not debt financed. These are cash buyers. Pull money and invest where???? -1% interest bearing bonds??
    For international investors who have a reference interest rate of 0% (unlike the 2.5% for Irish mortgage buyers) it takes a lot to make it unattractive. I’d go so far as they can leave half the block empty (like capital Dock) and won’t care one bit. Yields are too good.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    J_1980 wrote: »
    IRES far outperformed actual house price growth from mid17 onwards. It’s just back there. Most of the big drops (11th Dec19 -7% /27thFeb20 -6%) were on the back of rent freeze law news.

    Not great to be back there at this stage, with the effects of the coronavirus not even being factored into the drop in share price as of yet. The volatility in the share price in itself is not a concern, given that property is an extremely risky investment but its sensitivities would indicate that investors feel the market could have peaked. The only way is not up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    Emigration

    People go away if jobs becomes available somewhere else, or they go back home where they may have a family house to live in
    A shrinking economy is not going to draw people

    Also if you follow the logic of people flying home because of a pandemic , would it not be the case that there are more Irish who are living in other countries then people from other countries living here. I mean you cant have it both ways. Also is this not a global problem ergo anywhere these people emigrate to they will have the same problems and will have to jump the same hurdles they do in Ireland. Your argument would actually make it more likely that we would need more housing for the Irish Diaspora coming home


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    It could also cause investors to pull their money as they get spooked and be forced to sell their built-to-let apartment blocks to individual purchasers which of course would be great news.

    Once again think logically where would investors invest..Irelands rental market if flying where would you put your money if you were an investor.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    J_1980 wrote: »
    They are not debt financed. These are cash buyers. Pull money and invest where???? -1% interest bearing bonds??
    For international investors who have a reference interest rate of 0% (unlike the 2.5% for Irish mortgage buyers) it takes a lot to make it unattractive. I’d go so far as they can leave half the block empty (like capital Dock) and won’t care one bit. Yields are too good.

    Past performance is not a guide to future performance. "Yields are too good" you have said, meaning they will remain too good? you are viewing it in a vacuum, ignore any possibility for market corrections by making this statement. It is complacent and a bit reckless.

    Also your claim that they are not "debt financed" is completely wrong. https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-raises-200m-to-help-repay-credit-facility-39035290.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Once again think logically where would investors invest..Irelands rental market if flying where would you put your money if you were an investor.

    This ignores any potential market risks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    This ignores any potential market risks.

    What ignores what?? I am asking you if you were an investor and do what all investors do what would you invest in? If I had a buy to rent apartment bringing in a profit after tax and other expenses a month I wouldnt be selling it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    fliball123 wrote: »
    What ignores what?? I am asking you if you were an investor and do what all investors do what would you invest in? If I had a buy to rent apartment bringing in a profit after tax and other expenses a month I wouldnt be selling it.

    Why would you sell it? Unless it was decreasing in value and/or rental income was drying up.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Why would you sell it? Unless it was decreasing in value and/or rental income was drying up.

    No sign of rentals drying up anytime soon you have to remember 12 odd years of little or no building, 12 years of increased immigration inward to Ireland, 12 years of people living longer and 12 years of people having more kids. they all need a place to live.

    If you bring the virus argument into play and think people will go home, then by that argument there are more Irish people living outside of Ireland than in the country. So by that rule we will need even more housing. People can not have this every way. If Ireland are facing difficulties it means the rest of the world are as the same dynamics and issues are there too.

    As for investors where do you put your money stocks are unstable and it is costing an investor to keep money in savings or do you keep your 1 bed apartment in dublin making a profit for you. No need to pay out solicitor fees or EA fees or capital gains tax. For me its a no brainer you keep the property let the Corona virus storm blow out which it will once a proper treatment has been found and that will be sooner rather than later.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Past performance is not a guide to future performance. "Yields are too good" you have said, meaning they will remain too good? you are viewing it in a vacuum, ignore any possibility for market corrections by making this statement. It is complacent and a bit reckless.

    Also your claim that they are not "debt financed" is completely wrong. https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-raises-200m-to-help-repay-credit-facility-39035290.html


    https://investorrelations.iresreit.ie/investment-policy-and-strategy.aspx


    Gearing

    The Group will seek to use gearing to enhance shareholder returns over the long term. The Group’s gearing, represented by the Group’s aggregate borrowings as a percentage of the market value of the Group’s total assets, will not exceed the 50% maximum permitted under the Irish REIT Regime2.


    50% is max gearing, normal likely 30-40%.
    Less than Half the debt of an average 1st time buyer. This is basically very low risk debt levels. Forced selling is a long way out....


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fliball123 wrote: »
    No sign of rentals drying up anytime soon you have to remember 12 odd years of little or no building, 12 years of increased immigration inward to Ireland, 12 years of people living longer and 12 years of people having more kids. they all need a place to live.

    If you bring the virus argument into play and think people will go home, then by that argument there are more Irish people living outside of Ireland than in the country. So by that rule we will need even more housing. People can not have this every way. If Ireland are facing difficulties it means the rest of the world are as the same dynamics and issues are there too.

    As for investors where do you put your money stocks are unstable and it is costing an investor to keep money in savings or do you keep your 1 bed apartment in dublin making a profit for you. No need to pay out solicitor fees or EA fees or capital gains tax. For me its a no brainer you keep the property let the Corona virus storm blow out which it will once a proper treatment has been found and that will be sooner rather than later.


    I see many weak arguments there
    - As an investor where do you put your money? Definitely not in the property market at its peak right before global instability
    - As a LL you might want to capitalize on peak prices before things get worse. People will scale down their expectations on buying a house if jobs are lost, thus prices will be affected
    - During the last recession we saw more people leaving then entering the country. If Ireland enters a lock down stage some people may feel safer staying where they are


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fliball123 wrote: »
    What ignores what?? I am asking you if you were an investor and do what all investors do what would you invest in? If I had a buy to rent apartment bringing in a profit after tax and other expenses a month I wouldnt be selling it.


    You are not an investor
    Investors sell at the peak of the market and buy when price is low. Property market is peaking and it's facing trouble, if you have an empty property to flip this is a good time


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I see many weak arguments there
    - As an investor where do you put your money? Definitely not in the property market at its peak right before global instability
    - As a LL you might want to capitalize on peak prices before things get worse. People will scale down their expectations on buying a house if jobs are lost, thus prices will be affected
    - During the last recession we saw more people leaving then entering the country. If Ireland enters a lock down stage some people may feel safer staying where they are


    Where do you put your money then??

    I am not a landlord lets be clear on that but if I had a property which I was renting and it was turning a profit I would not be selling up as there is no where that I would get the same return as the Irish rental sector.

    During the last recession it could be argued that Ireland was the worst hit out of any country at least in the top 5 countries which was why people were leaving. If there is a recession it will be due to the virus and this is every where. During the last decade we have had more people coming into this country than leaving that is a fact you can look up yourself


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    You are not an investor
    Investors sell at the peak of the market and buy when price is low. Property market is peaking and it's facing trouble, if you have an empty property to flip this is a good time

    Well they dont seem to be flipping as the amount of property up on line on daft myhome etc is very low


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    J_1980 wrote: »
    Only positive thing about Coronavirus is, that it’ll cripple public finances.
    No more social housing pipe dreams and xmas bonuses for lifetime dolers :)
    When SF come into power (which will eventually happen) they'll fail like any other left wing government....

    Fuuck off


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well they dont seem to be flipping as the amount of property up on line on daft myhome etc is very low


    I've seen new properties popping in the area and bracket taht I've been monitoring, but given the current state of emergency all of this is going to get to a halt


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I've seen new properties popping in the area and bracket taht I've been monitoring, but given the current state of emergency all of this is going to get to a halt

    Even with all the new developments daft and myhome have less properties advertised now then they did 6 months ago. Just saying if your premise is right and we are at the top why are there so few properties up for sale? I still argue that point state of emergency or not people need to live somewhere. By not building it will only make it worse


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Even with all the new developments daft and myhome have less properties advertised now then they did 6 months ago. Just saying if your premise is right and we are at the top why are there so few properties up for sale? I still argue that point state of emergency or not people need to live somewhere. By not building it will only make it worse


    The market will get to a halt for the next few months
    Cash buyers might take their chances if prices go down, but anybody else who needs a mortgage i personally have doubt they get access to credit


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,444 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    The market will get to a halt for the next few months
    Cash buyers might take their chances if prices go down, but anybody else who needs a mortgage i personally have doubt they get access to credit

    Where are you getting the info that there is going to be a halt?? how will demand dry up or supply overflow to facilitate this halt?


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