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13-07-2019, 22:34   #196
893bet
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I do wonder though if their limited edition thing nigh on every time you turn around might hurt them in the longer term?
100% it’s just the odd one that they seem to be managing well, speedmaster Tuesday 1 and speedmaster Tuesday 2 ultraman.
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13-07-2019, 22:47   #197
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Nautilus and aquanaut gone particularly mental.

I have been watching 5167 closely and it has gone on WF from 24k to 38k in 12 months. Crazy inflation for a steel uncomplicated piece. Much of the demand is fuelled by profit seekers no doubt but there is a lot of pent up demand from the average person. Can’t see a massive overnight drop but a market correction is surely realistic.

I am gonna jump off the BLNR train I think. Quality piece but too flashy for my tastes. Prefer stealth.
5167 will go well above 45k IMHO. Patek just dont give a fcuk and limit supply like nobodies business. Because they sit above Rolex, any softening in prices will be well telegraphed by Rolex beforehand.

Wibbs - Your point on gold is very valid, and again I though that myself, there has to be be some return to intrinsic value, look at the price of a gold daytona versus a ceramic ss, its flipping nuts.

Funny world where a a simple blue/black bezel 40mm stainless is flashy. An honestly they are not....it just that they are the "poster" boy of the Rolex craziness. If I were holding one without attachment I would ditch it. I picked up a black black black GMT2 for that very reason, its discontinued and a little more under the radar while still being recognizable...its creeping up but I have seen BNLR's creeping down a touch.

Wibbs vintage scare the living daylights out of me, you need a depth of knowledge to swim with those sharks that is impossible to develop as a regular punter.

Omega are only popular among omega collectors, and the limited editions are going nuts. The joke going is that Omega are more excited about the moon landings than NASA. I love omega as a brand and I think their watches are lovely, however the only watch I would buy (and will buy anyone selling?) would be an original speed master professional moonwatch, manual, hessalite. Everything else is either too soft, or some limited edition that only 1000 people in the world could be bothered with.

Last edited by fitzgeme; 13-07-2019 at 22:52.
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13-07-2019, 23:37   #198
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5167 will go well above 45k IMHO. Patek just dont give a fcuk and limit supply like nobodies business. Because they sit above Rolex, any softening in prices will be well telegraphed by Rolex beforehand.
They only make around 50k pieces but still! The inflation is crazy. I was pretty lucky. Purchased just before the real madness took hold.

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Funny world where a a simple blue/black bezel 40mm stainless is flashy. An honestly they are not....it just that they are the "poster" boy of the Rolex craziness. If I were holding one without attachment I would ditch it. I picked up a black black black GMT2 for that very reason, its discontinued and a little more under the radar while still being recognizable...its creeping up but I have seen BNLR's creeping down a touch.
Flashy is perhaps the wrong word. Too recognisable as you say. From 30 yards you would know it.
The PCL are pretty flashy though. Think prices have slowed also for the BLNR. It is discontinued though so will hold a certain value long term.
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13-07-2019, 23:54   #199
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Wibbs - Your point on gold is very valid, and again I though that myself, there has to be be some return to intrinsic value, look at the price of a gold daytona versus a ceramic ss, its flipping nuts.
+1000 That has struck me too for a while FG. That for me is the "fashion", the more transient aspect that would concern me if I were in that buying position. I can see why a vintage steel Patek is sought after, they were vanishingly rare at the time, because if you're spending that kinda cash you'd go for the precious metal to add to the preciousness as it were, as the costs weren't that different if you were in that bracket.

When Hodinkee revisited the John Mayer chap and he was much more about the gold as gold can be with added coloured diamonds I was thinking, maybe he(or his dealers/advisors) has a point? The story of him getting apparently burned over steel sports Rolexes did the rounds for a while and then quietly died down. Part of me wonders did he figure going the gold and gems route was the better bet? The far more rare and harder to fake route, that even if dodgy was still a big lump of gold and diamonds at the end of the day.

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I picked up a black black black GMT2 for that very reason,
I can see why. Way nicer in my humble than the rest of that line. While I like the red versions, the blue always looked somehow "cheaper" for me?

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Wibbs vintage scare the living daylights out of me, you need a depth of knowledge to swim with those sharks that is impossible to develop as a regular punter.
I'd say it's impossible to develop full stop FG and anyone who claims to be an expert is peddling the excrement of a male member of the bovid family. Too big a subject and too many chances for being ripped off by frankens and fakes. There are some out there who are well clued in on very particular niches and the majority of them aren't self styled experts, journalists or dealers, but folks you find on forums and the like. One aspect of the the decline of forums is that concomitant loss of expertise. Though that said watch forums are bucking the trend and staying in there.

Truth is, the only reasons I never really got burned, other than flipping now mad money pieces, is because a) I was lucky I got into it before it was a thing, b) always had a limit, usually 300 quid(which says much of earlier times when that limit would regularly get any number of actual quality and actually rare pieces), c) only bought what I actually liked, d) was anal about research along very narrow lines and e) looked in areas nobody else was fighting over(which was partially connected with b). EG Issued military watches were at one time and hard to believe now, a very niche and nerdy hobbiest pursuit. Heuer Bunds for 800 quid, WW2 Hanharts the same, the "Dirty Dozen" of British watches a few hundred quid a piece or less, Longines and Zenith German issued DH's for 200 quid, the rest little more than a steak and chips sit down meal in a chew and chuck cafe. Even Rolex Milsubs at a couple of grand. And the few nerds at the time thought some prices were a bit steep. Bless.

But yeah, new or recent, even with the potential fakes and such, are a far safer bet for the vast majority of people. Never mind the practicalities of wearing a vintage piece.

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Omega are only popular among omega collectors, and the limited editions are going nuts. The joke going is that Omega are more excited about the moon landings than NASA. I love omega as a brand and I think their watches are lovely, however the only watch I would buy (and will buy anyone selling?) would be an original speed master professional moonwatch, manual, hessalite. Everything else is either too soft, or some limited edition that only 1000 people in the world could be bothered with.
+1000 on the anything but limited editions. Oh and you're talking with the thinks he knows best fcuknugget who sold on a pre moon speedy because I "didn't really gel with it". [insert epic facepalm here] Though my biggest regret was selling on a late 30's early version of a a Longines Czech pilots watch. Still raging twenty odd years on.

Last edited by Wibbs; 13-07-2019 at 23:58.
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