Property Market 2020

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 20-01-2020 6:46pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

FG are proposing changing HTB to 10% capped at €30,000, Varadkar on Matt Cooper as we speak.

Wtf this is worse. They should scrap it altogether. Only makes it harder for people to buy with the extra 30k added to house prices. Jesus, they are useless.

Dwarf.Shortage · 20-01-2020 6:51pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Wtf this is worse. They should scrap it altogether. Only makes it harder for people to buy with the extra 30k added to house prices. Jesus, they are useless.

FF policy of matching your deposit savings €1 to €3 would be more sensible if it was available on used stock, takes heat off new builds a bit.

No good to anyone who's already got their deposit saved though, I'm only getting going so it suits me but there's many it won't.

JamesMason · 20-01-2020 6:51pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Wtf this is worse. They should scrap it altogether. Only makes it harder for people to buy with the extra 30k added to house prices. Jesus, they are useless.

Unbelievable. Leo and FG really are completely out of touch. They are going to be annihilated by younger voters.

Dwarf.Shortage · 20-01-2020 6:53pm

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Wtf this is worse. They should scrap it altogether. Only makes it harder for people to buy with the extra 30k added to house prices. Jesus, they are useless.

In conjunction with increased supply which is starting to emerge it's not a terrible policy, I agree it's a grant to developers in a situation of constrained supply.

Browney7 · 20-01-2020 7:00pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

FG are proposing changing HTB to 10% capped at €30,000, Varadkar on Matt Cooper as we speak.

For new builds? So it's a bribe for people realistically outside Dublin really to "incentivise" building. Any cap on purchase price? Would be 5% back on a 600k home. Also nice for people who can self build in rural areas if they can get a valuation of 300k signed off especially if they can get the site for nothing!

Dwarf.Shortage · 20-01-2020 7:03pm

Browney7 wrote: »

For new builds? So it's a bribe for people realistically outside Dublin really to "incentivise" building. Any cap on purchase price? Would be 5% back on a 600k home. Also nice for people who can self build in rural areas if they can get a valuation of 300k signed off especially if they can get the site for nothing!

I suspect there will be headroom to spend above €300,000 and still get the full €30k, prob €400k.

But Varadkar didn't say that.

ittakestwo · 20-01-2020 7:18pm

Christ did we learn anything from the last boom and bust. Surly regulations should only be decide by the central bank and no government party can interfere with.

Stark · 20-01-2020 7:22pm

Browney7 wrote: »

For new builds? So it's a bribe for people realistically outside Dublin really to "incentivise" building. Any cap on purchase price? Would be 5% back on a 600k home. Also nice for people who can self build in rural areas if they can get a valuation of 300k signed off especially if they can get the site for nothing!

The cap is 500k.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 20-01-2020 7:34pm

ittakestwo wrote: »

Christ did we learn anything from the last boom and bust. Surly regulations should only be decide by the central bank and no government party can interfere with.

Give everyone more money. That will fix it. Definitely won't push prices up. Couldn't possibly build more houses or enhance transport services.

alwald · 20-01-2020 8:29pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

FG are proposing changing HTB to 10% capped at €30,000, Varadkar on Matt Cooper as we speak.

FG's policy and decisions on housing have been very poor over the last 5 or 6 years...and this decision here is useless too as it will just increase the price of new builds by 10% overnight...They clearly didn't learn from their past mistakes and they don't listen to people.
If FG are the leading party in the next election then future buyers are literally screwed.

Assetbacked · 20-01-2020 9:18pm

alwald wrote: »

FG's policy and decisions on housing have been very poor over the last 5 or 6 years...and this decision here is useless too as it will just increase the price of new builds by 10% overnight...They clearly didn't learn from their past mistakes and they don't listen to people.
If FG are the leading party in the next election then future buyers are literally screwed.

FG have listened to big corporate interests and promoted jobs first. However, at full employment for a while now, new jobs just means more people and more strain on housing and infrastructure. The investment in housing and infrastructure has not followed and this is to the detriment of workers and renting workers in particular. Immigrants in the past few years to work with multinationals and the corporates themselves (multinationals and the institutional property investors) cannot vote so FG will suffer at the hands of those who can actually vote.

Ireland is generally politically stable which is why FF and FG, centrist parties, have been in power since forever. Irish people in general are happy with everything so don't need to jump to extremes from FG so FF should hoover up a good bit of FG voters since FF are sending out the soundbites on housing which FG are neglecting.

Billythekid19 · 21-01-2020 10:30am

I had an experience last year where a seller had 2 estate agents were selling the same property. I viewed with both estate agents, one told me the latest offer was 20k above the other one quoted. So they had no issue robbing me blind of 20k....

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

I find the majority of people who complain about estate agents have generally been outbid or don't own a home.

Have generally only heard positives from people who have sold with them, some great experiences myself too.

Maybe it's a geographic thing.

Dwarf.Shortage · 21-01-2020 3:42pm

Fianna Fail going with the SSIA match of €30k saved being supplemented by a €10k top up and increasing the HTB to €25k, also a 14% vacant sites levy and a waive of various charges if developers can deliver the units within 3 years.

Lots of social housing commitments too but I didn't listen as closely to the details.

Sheeps · 21-01-2020 8:23pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Fianna Fail going with the SSIA match of €30k saved being supplemented by a €10k top up and increasing the HTB to €25k, also a 14% vacant sites levy and a waive of various charges if developers can deliver the units within 3 years.

Lots of social housing commitments too but I didn't listen as closely to the details.

14% vacant site levy is an open goal. Nothing in the SSIA for me, given I've saved more than a deposit already. In fact it probably just means I'll have to spend the next 13 months putting away €250 from my actual savings into this new scheme, so I can get the €10k to keep up with the inflation it creates, alongside the HTB inflation and the natural inflation.

Seems like a very daft housing policy.

Dwarf.Shortage · 21-01-2020 8:31pm

Sheeps wrote: »

14% vacant site levy is an open goal. Nothing in the SSIA for me, given I've saved more than a deposit already. In fact it probably just means I'll have to spend the next 13 months putting away €250 from my actual savings into this new scheme, so I can get the €10k to keep up with the inflation it creates, alongside the HTB inflation and the natural inflation.

Seems like a very daft housing policy.

The SSIA money being available to buy existing builds is a small step in the direction of taking the some heat off new builds.

Prices do seem to be static so if the original HTB has put €20k on prices then the true unsupported trend has to be downwards which I don’t believe. I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as €35k automatically means prices go up by €35k, some of it will filter through but I can’t see it being anywhere near 100%.

km79 · 21-01-2020 8:44pm

What about people who were finally freed from negative equity noose but are now paying high rents whilst trying to save 20% deposit .........
Abandoned again

Dwarf.Shortage · 21-01-2020 8:59pm

km79 wrote: »

What about people who were finally freed from negative equity noose but are now paying high rents whilst trying to save 20% deposit .........
Abandoned again

Very hard to legislate for non FTBs who got fleeced on previous purchase as opposed to non FTBs in general.

km79 · 21-01-2020 9:06pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Very hard to legislate for non FTBs who got fleeced on previous purchase as opposed to non FTBs in general.

True
It’s just very frustrating

Dwarf.Shortage · 21-01-2020 9:10pm

km79 wrote: »

True
It’s just very frustrating

I'd well believe it, must have been an incredibly frustrating experience.

Mic 1972 · 21-01-2020 9:23pm

km79 wrote: »

What about people who were finally freed from negative equity noose but are now paying high rents whilst trying to save 20% deposit .........
Abandoned again

They are the ones who definitely shouldn't buy a house now, with prices at the peak again. Dont make the same mistake twice

km79 · 21-01-2020 9:26pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They are the ones who definitely shouldn't buy a house now, with prices at the peak again. Dont make the same mistake twice

That’s also true
However so is rent
And we can’t stay renting this house forever ........
I am also back home now where we will be staying forever so..........

Can’t win

PHG · 21-01-2020 11:11pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

They are the ones who definitely shouldn't buy a house now, with prices at the peak again. Dont make the same mistake twice

How do you know houses wont go higher? Nobody knows the top

badboyblast · 22-01-2020 12:42am

PHG wrote: »

How do you know houses wont go higher? Nobody knows the top

Exactly, who's to say the average price of a house in 10 years wont be 400k nationwide, the market is on a bullrun in general, no one knows

what_traffic · 22-01-2020 12:05pm

Good piece from Eoin Burke-Kennedy in todays IT (most read article on the site today)
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/fianna-f%C3%A1il-may-have-just-pressed-the-pause-button-on-the-property-market-1.4147137
"
The party’s new SSIA may cause a significant number of housebuyers to put their plans on hold for an unspecified period
"

SozBbz · 22-01-2020 12:41pm

what_traffic wrote: »

Good piece from Eoin Burke-Kennedy in todays IT (most read article on the site today)
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/fianna-f%C3%A1il-may-have-just-pressed-the-pause-button-on-the-property-market-1.4147137
"
The party’s new SSIA may cause a significant number of housebuyers to put their plans on hold for an unspecified period
"

I think this is pertinant;

The unwinding of this pause on sales at some future point, when the proposed SSIA scheme matures or if it fails to materialise, will then flood the market with potential buyers at a point when builders have probably slowed down development in response to slowing prices. That will add volatility to an inherently unstable market without addressing the root problem: affordability.

Meddling in the market never helps.

lastusername · 22-01-2020 12:49pm

what_traffic wrote: »

Good piece from Eoin Burke-Kennedy in todays IT (most read article on the site today)
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/fianna-f%C3%A1il-may-have-just-pressed-the-pause-button-on-the-property-market-1.4147137
"
The party’s new SSIA may cause a significant number of housebuyers to put their plans on hold for an unspecified period
"

Hmm, very interesting......

But the undersupply narrative – the one that suggests the answer to the housing crisis is to build more homes – may be a misreading of what is going on. A recent Bank of England study suggests the four-decade long surge in house prices in the UK, where property prices have quadrupled since the 1980s, was caused not by a lack of supply but by low interest rates.

Lower interest rates mean a lower cost of borrowing to pay for a home, and more people being in a position to afford to borrow to buy a house, a scenario that translates into higher prices. This argument, which is fast gaining currency, stems from the notion that the persistence of cheap credit inflates asset prices such as housing.

That has not deterred political parties here from flying the flag for more housing-related incentives.
There must be an election taking place.

SozBbz · 22-01-2020 12:59pm

lastusername wrote: »

Hmm, very interesting......

But the undersupply narrative – the one that suggests the answer to the housing crisis is to build more homes – may be a misreading of what is going on. A recent Bank of England study suggests the four-decade long surge in house prices in the UK, where property prices have quadrupled since the 1980s, was caused not by a lack of supply but by low interest rates.

Lower interest rates mean a lower cost of borrowing to pay for a home, and more people being in a position to afford to borrow to buy a house, a scenario that translates into higher prices. This argument, which is fast gaining currency, stems from the notion that the persistence of cheap credit inflates asset prices such as housing.

That has not deterred political parties here from flying the flag for more housing-related incentives.
There must be an election taking place.

Youre right, lack of supply is an issue, but not the only issue.

When money is (relatively) cheap, people can afford to bid more.

Also I do think the build cost issue is a real one. With all new homes to be A2 from now on, there is a significant cost associated with that. Developers are not going to work for no margin.

lastusername · 22-01-2020 1:14pm

Apparently prices are going to go up by over 2% in 2020, according to an article in the Independent the other day. Opinions came from Davy Stockbrokers and others, and the driver is Brexit certainty from this month - people who were holding back on selling and buying will start to move this year...

Assetbacked · 22-01-2020 1:44pm

lastusername wrote: »

Apparently prices are going to go up by over 2% in 2020, according to an article in the Independent the other day. Opinions came from Davy Stockbrokers and others, and the driver is Brexit certainty from this month - people who were holding back on selling and buying will start to move this year...

Davy have a vested interest in prices going up and talk up Brexit far too much. Brexit has been touted as having an impact on the property market for two years and yet nothing has happened with Brexit in that time. Davy never acknowledge publicly it seems that the issue of house price growth slowdown is to do with affordability and a lack of supply. To them, house price growth slowdown or decreases are necessarily a bad thing.

However, the rapid increase in prices the last seven years is purely down to demand increasing very quickly and supply not catching up. The growth slowdown or price decrease is more of a correction to offset the worryingly rapid rise in house prices in such a short space of time.

Zenify · 22-01-2020 2:14pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Davy have a vested interest in prices going up and talk up Brexit far too much.

Agree

Davy said prices in dublin would increase for 2019 and they fell.

They are one of Ireland's largest property investors and they are currently selling property assets. Why would an investor be reducing their property portfolio if they were so sure it would rise. Terrible behaviour IMO.

Property Market 2020

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