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Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

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    #92
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.

    The unconscious bias in me puts more confidence in the ECM for now.


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    #93
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.

    The unconscious bias in me puts more confidence in the ECM for now.

    Isn’t the 18Z GFS run almost always a write off anyway?!

    The only runs I take seriously are the 12Z and 00Z ECM, GFS & UKMO.


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    #94
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    esposito wrote: »
    Isn’t the 18Z GFS run almost always a write off anyway?!

    The only runs I take seriously are the 12Z and 00Z ECM, GFS & UKMO.

    I'm not particularly accustomed to the new version of the GFS, and the 18Z can be somewhat useful at times, but unfortunately it seems as if it's done it's usual thing of being strange.


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    #95
    Luke-m
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭Luke-m


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The 18Z GFS is just strange, a write off of a run in my opinion.
    .

    The old gfs is different. It shows higher pressure and warmer 850s. I think the newer model has a few gremlins to iron out.


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    #96
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    MT predicting a high of 28 during the hot spell next week,warmest inland west, the flow will be from the southeast so cooler along east/south facing coasts with sea fog/low cloud.


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    #97
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    GFS 0Z still very cautious, not wanting to get those higher 850's over Ireland. Showing fairly ****e temperatures.

    The 0Z ECM however is still as beautiful as the runs before it. Ending it all by Saturday however.


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    #98
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,268 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    squarecircles wrote: »
    MT predicting a high of 28 during the hot spell next week,warmest inland west, the flow will be from the southeast so cooler along east/south facing coasts with sea fog/low cloud.

    Sea fog... That'll be 14 degrees then


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    #99
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Sea fog... That'll be 14 degrees then

    And I hope you jinx it!


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    #100
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,268 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    It's not my prediction... I've felt first hand the effect sea fog has on regional temps. Happened quite a bit around here during the hot spell last year.


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    #101
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Sea fog is a slow moving phenomenon in a slow moving atmosphere
    It's not as prevalent when you have a driving flow like we will have next week as opposed to just the sea breezes you get under the type of meandering high pressure systems we had last year

    The biggest drag on temps anywhere looks to me like active thunderstorms ....


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    #102
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,268 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Sea fog is a slow moving phenomenon in a slow moving atmosphere
    It's not as prevalent when you have a driving flow like we will have next week as opposed to just the sea breezes you get under the type of meandering high pressure systems we had last year

    The biggest drag on temps anywhere looks to me like active thunderstorms ....

    Sounds good to me...


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    #103
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The 06z run is not following ukmo and ecm....no real heat evident all week tbh


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    #104
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,061 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Waterford

    Persistent, and at times, heavy rain during Sunday will lead to accumulations between 25 to 40mm.
    There is potential for this warning to be extended to include other counties.

    Valid: Sunday 23 June 2019 05:00 to Sunday 23 June 2019 21:00

    Issued: Saturday 22 June 2019 11:00

    Updated: Saturday 22 June 2019 11:00


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    #105
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    The 06z run is not following ukmo and ecm....no real heat evident all week tbh




    poor old gfs 06z, hopefully it will have smelled the coffe by evening time


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    #106
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.


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    #107
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.




    The ECM AND UKMO are still onboard for a hot week,most models are infact,except the GFS, its classic GFS behaviour, it picked up on the plume first,then it likes to backtrack - drop the idea,before coming onboard again.

    PLUS we could be having our first rumbles of thunder as soon as tomorrow night.


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    #108
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

    You're basing this off just the GFS?


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    #109
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Theres a muggy quality to the air here in West Mayo already,very dead outside.


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    #110
    Mullaghteelin
    Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Mullaghteelin


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

    Even the gfs solution could see temps approach high twenties in sheltered parts of the North and west by the end of the week.
    Don't be suprised if the hottest spots end up being western coastal fringes of Ireland and Wales, especially to the lee of high ground.

    Elevated storms can pop anywhere with little warning, Monday looks interesting.
    Its going to be a very unusual pattern, regardless of how the specific details through the week chop and change.


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    #111
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    You're basing this off just the GFS?

    Even the GFS isn't that pessimistic... you can also add 2-3c to the 2m temperatures that the GFS shows because of its cold bias.


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    #112
    Little snowy old me
    Registered Users Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    You're basing this off just the GFS?

    I know I shouldn't but yes I am. I really want us all to have a hot thundery week. Im not being pessimistic for the sake of it and should know by now that the GFS can throw out deviations.


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    #113
    Mortelaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Little snowy old me wrote: »
    I know I shouldn't but yes I am. I really want us all to have a hot thundery week. Im not being pessimistic for the sake of it and should know by now that the GFS can throw out deviations.

    It's not currently the perceived wisdom of forecasters at the moment that the 06Z gfs is anywhere near the mark
    So relax :)


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    #114
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Why are people replying to this WUM? Anytime anything interesting is happening with our weather they turn up with their act.


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    #115
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Please keep on topic , also you can report PM’s from the PM itself


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    #116
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Please keep on topic , also you can report PM’s from the PM itself
    Not on mobile?


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    #117
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    Great news. Potential for heavy rain and warm temperatures.

    Silage is just cut and baled.
    Slurry will be getting spread Monday/ Tuesday.
    Rain to wash it in and warm temperatures to encourage growth :D


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    #118
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The Ironman competition in youghal tomorrow looks like a complete washout. So much so it could even be called off!! Rain looks persistent and heavy throughout


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    #119
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    my oh my.

    [IMG][/img]fc4sg5.png


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    #120
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    xd5edd.png


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    #121
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    The persistence of the ECM and ICON in regards to this spell is quite impressive.


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