100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

longshotvalue · 06-02-2015 8:47pm

Warwick 3:50

I was very sure of Ackertac placing at least last time out and he ran well just getting knocked out of it close home. I think this slightly shorter trip and weaker race will give him a great chance of making up for that, along with the couple of more pounds is hand this time. 7/1 is bigger than I thought he would be.

2 Points win 7/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 07-02-2015 11:03am

3:40 Naas

Blood Cotil’s hurdles form is a long way clear of anything else here, but he has been a bit of a disappointment so far over fences. If he can tidy up his jumping at all he looks overpriced here at 10/3. That favourite took a heavy fall at the last when tanking along last time out but that could be a dent to his confidence and I’d prefer to be on a fairly solid performer like the selection in this case.

2 Points win 10/3 Coral

longshotvalue · 07-02-2015 2:16pm

2:25 Newbury

This race looks up for grabs for me as Houblon Des Obeaux should really be winning this on pure form, but he isn’t one that wins enough and looking the rest of the field there really isn’t anything much between any of them on all known form. I think for example there isn’t anything between Double Ross and Tarquin Du Seuil. His 3rd behind Tarquin and Menorah in the Charlie Hall is near good enough form to be close here and it looks to me as if he may be underestimated. Id make him more of a 12/1 shot so the 20/1 available would have to be taken.

1 Point win 20/1 Double Ross Various

longshotvalue · 07-02-2015 2:30pm

Betfair Hurdle 3:35

I’m going to go with another small bet here on Cheltenian . He was 4th in this last year and is still a relatively unexposed horse with a decent hope that he can be better than his current mark. If he can improve his jumping he may well come there with a chance at the last and that is all that can be asked for a 40/1 shot. His chances of getting in the first 5 looks fairly high to me .

1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Various Betfair Hurdle 3:35

longshotvalue · 07-02-2015 4:49pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Betfair Hurdle 3:35

I’m going to go with another small bet here on Cheltenian . He was 4th in this last year and is still a relatively unexposed horse with a decent hope that he can be better than his current mark. If he can improve his jumping he may well come there with a chance at the last and that is all that can be asked for a 40/1 shot. His chances of getting in the first 5 looks fairly high to me .

1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Various Betfair Hurdle 3:35

Feck just for a second i thought he stood a chance .. Still EW 2nd at 40/1..

longshotvalue · 07-02-2015 4:49pm

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Naas

Blood Cotil’s hurdles form is a long way clear of anything else here, but he has been a bit of a disappointment so far over fences. If he can tidy up his jumping at all he looks overpriced here at 10/3. That favourite took a heavy fall at the last when tanking along last time out but that could be a dent to his confidence and I’d prefer to be on a fairly solid performer like the selection in this case.

2 Points win 10/3 Coral

Handy one :-)..

longshotvalue · 08-02-2015 12:01pm

2:55 Exeter

In for a penny in for a pound, I stated earlier in the year that I would follow Golden Chieftain until he won, so without much thinking ill have a point on him today. He probably needs a pound or too to get into a race at the festival and there is a danger a place would be more suitable for those purpose’s but having missed a few bigger priced out of pure laziness the 10/1 is still worth having a bet on. I also can’t leave the race with have a bet on my old favourite Burton Port. The stable is firing on all cylinders at the moment at he can win of this mark on better ground today.

1 Point win Golden Chieftain 10/1 Generally

1 Point win Burton Port 20/1 Betfair

longshotvalue · 08-02-2015 12:10pm

2:25 Exeter

Ambion Wood’s hurdles form is littered with strong performances, of this mark even after a lay off of nearly 2 years, I think he may be worth a small bet just in case he is ready to go here. He also has a fairly decent record fresh. 20/1 is worth the gamble.

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 08-02-2015 12:21pm

Leopardstown 3:15

Dalasiri’s form in 2mile handicap hurdles isn’t bad at all. His last run over 3 miles can be safely ignored and down to a workable mark here in a weaker race he may well outrun his current 33/1 Odds. Barry Geraghty looks an interesting booking for such a big outsider and he has enough form in the book to suggest a high chance of placing at least here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally.

longshotvalue · 08-02-2015 12:27pm

Leopardstown 3:50

This looks a messy enough renewal , In my view Boston Bob looks the most likely winner in these conditions but the value may lie with First Lieutenant. He will like the improved ground this time and generally get better and better this time of the year. He has been disappointing so far but improving all the same. 14/1 could be a bit of value in what could be a very tight race.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

sdoc13 · 08-02-2015 1:23pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Leopardstown 3:15

Dalasiri’s form in 2mile handicap hurdles isn’t bad at all. His last run over 3 miles can be safely ignored and down to a workable mark here in a weaker race he may well outrun his current 33/1 Odds. Barry Geraghty looks an interesting booking for such a big outsider and he has enough form in the book to suggest a high chance of placing at least here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally.

40s with 888.com I wasnt going to back this today but at those prices I am seriously tempted.

Deco99 · 14-02-2015 12:18pm

Ahem....cough, cough! :-)

longshotvalue · 14-02-2015 1:44pm

Wincanton 2:30

Oscar Prarie was a selection of mine last time out and he ran an odd race, being miles out the back and then flying at the finish . He is obviously capable of this mark and if he is on a going day at all he stands a chance here at 16/1..

1 point win 16/1

longshotvalue · 14-02-2015 2:10pm

Haydock 2:55

Monbeg Dude looks a fair but ahead of these and will be well suited by this test of attrition today. Despite the fact he is favourite, I think 7/1 is value.

1 point win 7/1 generally

longshotvalue · 14-02-2015 2:17pm

3:25 Haydock

Across the bay has a great record around here and even though he hasn't been great this year he needs to be getting into form for another national tilt. He won a hurdle race around here 2 years ago of a 5 lbs higher mark. Worth a shot at 40/1

1 point ew 40/1 generally

Francie Barrett · 14-02-2015 2:34pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Haydock 2:55

Monbeg Dude looks a fair but ahead of these and will be well suited by this test of attrition today. Despite the fact he is favourite, I think 7/1 is value.

1 point win 7/1 generally

I fancy this one as well, good luck.

longshotvalue · 21-02-2015 10:39am

3:45 Kempton

Rajdhani Express has some top class form in the book before his poor enough run last time out when he had excuses. I think he has looked like he will like this step up in trip and of a proven mark of 155 with Sam’s extra 3lbs here he could well get involved here at a big price. He has stayed on well in the Ryanair last year and travels well in his races so I see no reason he won’t be suited by this trip around here. 18/1 looks a nice bit of value.

2 Points win 18/1 Generally

2:55 Newcastle

Count Guido Deiro is the only horse I can get even remotely enthused about here. He last run was good in a very decent race and if he can tidy up his jumping here, he is of a nice weight and should still be improving, especially with this step up in trip. 20/1 looks a decent bit of value and he looks solid enough to place here. The 5 places with skybet is a very decent concession.

2 Points EW 20/1 5 Places Skybet

longshotvalue · 25-02-2015 8:35pm

Cross Country Chase

This is one of my best races at the festival over the last 10 years or so and having seen the weights out today I think Duke of Lucca could be shorter here. He was a good staying on 4th last year but has a big weight turnaround with this years form horse Any Currency. It looks a weaker race this year without two of last year’s first 3 and I would expect Duke of Lucca to go of favourite here from the same team as last years winner.

2 Points win 8/1 Bet365 NRNB

County Hurdle

Wicklow Brave was backed heavily last time out and never got a run at all in the Betfair hurdle having missed the start. I think he is well ahead of the handicapper. He ran an eye-catching race last year in the Supreme and has been poor enough this year, but could well come alive again back here in similar conditions. He will have a light weight and once he gets in hell be involved in the finish. Im going to gamble on standard anti-post, as I cant resist the 33/1 Available.

1 Point win 33/1 Various

Tiger Roll is another I feel may well be aimed at this. He was a good winner of the triumph this year and won again here earlier this year beating a decent horse. He has been put in his place in grade 1 hurdles in Ireland on soft ground since but could be a step ahead of this handicap field. With this selection I’m going to go with NRNB as if he does turn up he’ll go off shorter with these connections.

1 Point win 25/1 Bet365 NRNB

World Hurdle

I just can’t pass up the 20/1 about Reve de Sivola here. If there is any mention of soft in the going hell be an 8/1 shot at most and if I am standing around in the rain on course that day what better medicine to have a 20/1 bet on him with a huge chance on softer ground. There wasnt much between him and the joint favourites when they met and there is just too much of a price discrepancy

1 Point win 20/1 NRNB various

At Fishers Cross was ahead of most of these last year in 3rd and although he has been poor this year, I just can’t resist a min bet just in case at a huge looking 40/1 just in case. He has great festival form and hopefully the sight of the place will wake him up.

½ Point win 40/1 NRNB Various

ste2010 · 25-02-2015 9:05pm

Unbelievable. I share your county hurdle selections and was tempted by at fishers cross @ 50/1 with Stan James. One thing I noticed before pulling the trigger, he is not priced up by ladbrokes which is strange? I seen some rumour knocking around Twitter that he won't be running..
When you consider he ran 2 stinkers but went on to beat everything but more of that and annie power last year that price is a steal

Edit: never mind
http://www1.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/9731524/cheltenham-festival-rebecca-curtis-hoping-for-at-fishers-cross-revival?utm_source=SkySports&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=Horseracing&utm_content=Betting

longshotvalue · 28-02-2015 11:07am

3:45 Doncaster

This looks and really weak race for the money and I really can’t find anything of interest here at all in the main contenders so I’ve had a look at Wayward Prince’s old form and seen that he has suddenly run well a couple of times after poor runs and if he has woken up at all, he might get involved here of this mark. The light weight and good ground might get him going and he’s worth a shot at 33/1 just in case.

1 Point win 40/1 Stan James

2:50 Newbury

Royal Guardsman was a decent prospect a couple of years ago but it doesn’t look like chasing suited him. He performed ok but aside from his rather poor re-introduction over hurdles lately after a long break he has some decent hurdles form and looks of a nice enough mark here if he has come on from that opening run. 14/1 might be worth a small bet.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

3:25 Newbury

Easter Meteor is one I’m interested in for the festival, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed an improvement here. He is of a decent mark and there is a possibility it wont want to be ruined here so close to what might be his target but it’s a decent race and my gut feeling is he might be trying today. I’ll have a min bet at 11/1 as that will avoid any remote’s been trown at the TV iv im not on today and he wins.

1 Point win 11/1 Various

racso1975 · 28-02-2015 11:14am

Hi Aidan can I ask why you'd go for the win only at 40/1 as opposed to e/w? Just curious

Gringo180 · 28-02-2015 11:19am

racso1975 wrote: »

Hi Aidan can I ask why you'd go for the win only at 40/1 as opposed to e/w? Just curious

Because if he is on a going day he will be winning.

longshotvalue · 28-02-2015 2:15pm

Gringo180 wrote: »

Because if he is on a going day he will be winning.

Exactly.. Too much risk of finishing last..

EW in general is a looser over the long term, everyone would be better off for ROI just going win only each time.. But feck it its hard to resist the 5 place specials and the like.

longshotvalue · 28-02-2015 4:01pm

aidankkk wrote: »

2:50 Newbury

Royal Guardsman was a decent prospect a couple of years ago but it doesn’t look like chasing suited him. He performed ok but aside from his rather poor re-introduction over hurdles lately after a long break he has some decent hurdles form and looks of a nice enough mark here if he has come on from that opening run. 14/1 might be worth a small bet.

1 Point win 14/1 Various

:D Lovely