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100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

  • 28-11-2014 3:16pm
    #1
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭


    This is my 9th of these 100 bet treads 8 have made profit. Its probably the best time of the year to start one for me.

    Ill start with the bet i put up yesterday

    BET 1


    Hennessy Gold Cup
    I’m going to get a bet in here early for my main fancy for this as the price is only going to get lower.

    I think this race will really suit Unioniste, he is a dour stayer and looks to love soft ground. He ended last season poorly but will surly be ready for this race. The stable are on fire at the moment. 20/1 looks a cracking EW bet

    2 Points EW Unioniste Various


«134567…12

Comments

  • #2
    matthew8
    Registered Users Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Would you be able to link me the previous threads?


  • #3
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Would you be able to link me the previous threads?


    this is the 1st 7

    First
    Second
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055960844
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2056055990
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2056169963
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2056228630
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2056294493, i think there is 1 more
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=86140059


  • #4
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Bet 2,3,4

    2:05 Newcastle

    This looks a very poor renewal and with various question marks over most of the field it looks a simple task to pick out the value here at the current prices. Sea Lord is anything but proven on the ground but I can’t have the favourite at the prices and the stable in in great form. I’ve missed the 14/1 but 12/1 will suffice as he’s not that in this race. He’ll go of at 8/1 or less.

    1 Point win 12/1

    2:40 Newcastle

    If there is one possible underrated horse in this field it has to be Indian Castle . He will need to improve on his season al reappearance but he should do that and this looks a poorish renewal of this race. He has form on soft ground and to me is less exposed than the favourite here. 6/1 looks a fair price and seems the best value here to me.

    1 Point win 6/1 Generally

    1:20 Newbury

    Midnight Appeal     takes a decent drop in class here after a very good run last week off 1lb higher. This trip will be more up his street and it looks significant to get him back out that quick, and on form could win this with a bit in hand. I expect him to be backed later on and the current 6/1 looks a nice bit of value.

    1 Point win 6/1 Generally


  • #5
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Bet 5

    3:10 Fairyhouse

    Folsom Blue looks the wrong price here. He is a sure stayer and has performed well of this mark in the past, including 5th in the Irish national last year. He isn't the pick of B Cooper here but that could be more to do with the fact that the 5lbs will be handy here of top weight. He looks great value at 20/1 with VC BET

    2 Points EW 22/1 VCBET


  • #6
    Jerichoholic
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,585 ✭✭✭Jerichoholic


    What happened to Folsom, was doing well then my feed went out, when it came back Folsom had vanished.


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  • #7
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Jerichoholic wrote: »
    What happened to Folsom, was doing well then my feed went out, when it came back Folsom had vanished.

    Fell, which in line with my current form..


  • #8
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    1:30 Aintree

    Pretty Difficult Race as expected but I’m going to go with Across the bay for starters here. He is back down to a workable mark and has shown a nice bit of form over these fences, without ever really getting it all together here. On his day he is a tough animal and ran particularly well last year in the national until taken out of it by a loose horse. 33/1 ew with 5 places looks a decent bit of value. I’m also going with small win bets on 2 more of the outsiders in Burton Port which is just too big a price for a classy horse and a gut feeling selection in Shakalakaboomboom, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see come back to a bit of form here.

    1 Point EW Across the bay 33/1 5 places Generally
    1 Point win Burton Port 34 betfair
    1 Point win Shakalakaboomboom 36 Betfair


  • #9
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    3:15 Aintree

    I’ve been wondering when a race would come along to suit Champion Court , and I get the feeling he will be suited by a decent mark here and a nice light weight. This race has a weak enough look to it for such a high profile chase, he is the type to get into a rhythm around here and of this mark may not be caught as easily as before. The extra 5lbs claim as well here makes him look the best treated in the field and the 11/1 here in a few places loos a nice be it of value
    .
    1 Point win 11/1 Various

    Sandown 3:00

    Somersby     looks overpriced in this poor renewal. I’m not at all sure that any of last year’s novices are up to this standard and if not Somersby’s 8/1 price is much too big. Oscar Whisky is a bit of a fly in the ointment back in trip but I’m not sure what his jumping will be like at this speed.

    1 Point win 8/1 Generally

    Chepstow 3:10

    Amigo     ran well enough in the Welsh national last year here of a much higher mark and seems to have been dropped to far here. He will need to win this to get back into that race and is still relatively unexposed having had only a few races over fences. He was in the process of running well on his first run of the year until slipping up and id be happy with the 7/1 on offer here.

    1 Point win 7/1 Generally


  • #10
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Champion Court the only horse I backed tomorrow. Think he ran much better than the bare result suggests last time.


  • #11
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Cheltenham 2:40

    I love these races and I think Duke of Lucca is significantly well in here compared to most of the other contenders. He ran really well at the festival last year over c&d and is a proven performer of this mark in standard chases. He will love the good ground and this race isn’t as strong as it could have been. He is favourite to win in my book and a solid 3 point win bet at the best available odds of 13/2

    3 Points win 13/2


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  • #12
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Cheltenham 2:10

    Standing Ovation     sticks out here as decent bit of value at 8/1 in this race. He was pulled up after his chance had gone last time but a reproduction of his 2nd in a stronger race here in October could well be enough. The very unexposed The Ould Lad could be anything but it’s hard to have him at favourite here. 8/1 about my selection looks about 3 points too big as there are a few ahead of him in the betting I don’t fancy at all.

    2 Points win 8/1 Various


  • #13
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Cheltenham 1:40

    Starluck     has been running well enough this year and this drop in class along with a nice drop in mark, should see him competitive. He has got one of the better claimers on board as well and could well have decent finish in him down at this level. 7/1 looks value and I think we’re sure to get a good run for our money.

    2 Points win 7/1 various


  • #14
    ste2010
    Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ste2010


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Cheltenham 1:40

    Starluck     has been running well enough this year and this drop in class along with a nice drop in mark, should see him competitive. He has got one of the better claimers on board as well and could well have decent finish in him down at this level. 7/1 looks value and I think we’re sure to get a good run for our money.

    2 Points win 7/1 various

    Money everywhere for starluck! I was sure he was 12's when I first checked today. Bothy could be the snake in the grass and they may well have targeted this race on his long awaited come back I reckon he might spoil the party tomorrow


  • #15
    Guffy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,027 ✭✭✭Guffy


    Do u keep a running total? Units staked up or down?


  • #16
    tomaussie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 913 ✭✭✭tomaussie


    gufc21 wrote: »
    Do u keep a running total? Units staked up or down?

    Have a look at the first few posts on this thread.


  • #17
    Guffy
    Registered Users Posts: 8,027 ✭✭✭Guffy


    tomaussie wrote: »
    Have a look at the first few posts on this thread.

    ....? And?


  • #18
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Cheltenham 2:40

    I love these races and I think Duke of Lucca is significantly well in here compared to most of the other contenders. He ran really well at the festival last year over c&d and is a proven performer of this mark in standard chases. He will love the good ground and this race isn’t as strong as it could have been. He is favourite to win in my book and a solid 3 point win bet at the best available odds of 13/2

    3 Points win 13/2

    He is a horse I've followed for a long time. I'm convinced he wants a three miles on a flat track. Don't think he sees out this. Best of luck though


    I don't mean to sound pure negative but think the same with Starluck that horse broke my heart many many times.


    He proved me wrong. Very well done.


  • #19
    ste2010
    Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ste2010


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Cheltenham 1:40

    Starluck     has been running well enough this year and this drop in class along with a nice drop in mark, should see him competitive. He has got one of the better claimers on board as well and could well have decent finish in him down at this level. 7/1 looks value and I think we’re sure to get a good run for our money.

    2 Points win 7/1 various
    Well done Aido! No luck from my lad


  • #20
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Hong Kong Sprint

    Sole Power     just isn’t an 8/1 shot here. This isn’t the best of these races, and I don’t go along with the worry about the trip over 6 furlongs as much as most. If he gets a gap a fast ground 6 furlongs wont be any issue. He was 2nd last year and looks to me to be a minimum of 2-3 points too big.

    2 Points win 8/1 Generally

    1:25 Cheltenham

    Astracad may well have found his level here. He is infuriating lately as he really should be winning soon with some of his placed performances in the last 2 years. He is down to a career low mark with a good 5lbs claimer on here and will carry bottom weight. 13/2 looks value.

    2 Points in 13/2 VC & Coral


  • #21
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    I was lining up Astracad for a max bet. Don't think 13/2 was value though I was hoping for 8/1 so left it.


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  • #22
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    I was lining up Astracad for a max bet. Don't think 13/2 was value though I was hoping for 8/1 so left it.

    You could be right , but it looks a weak race, and i cant have any of the others really.. He isn't one for a lot of confidence, but if he is ever to win a decent race again he should be taking this..


  • #23
    ste2010
    Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ste2010


    aidankkk wrote: »
    You could be right , but it looks a weak race, and i cant have any of the others really.. He isn't one for a lot of confidence, but if he is ever to win a decent race again he should be taking this..

    You were lining up a max bet at 8's but won't back anything at 13/2??

    Surely there's some leverage there..ladbrokes are already 4's on him..don't miss the train...


  • #24
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Thought the front two were worth favourites, both lightly raced unexposed geldings. That said Astracad fared better than the bare result last time, I just thought 13/2 was a bit skinny given he does have over 20 lengths to make up with them. Tricky racing punting wise tomorrow


  • #25
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    ste2010 wrote: »
    You were lining up a max bet at 8's but won't back anything at 13/2??

    Surely there's some leverage there..ladbrokes are already 4's on him..don't miss the train...

    8 was the minimum I was going to take. I'm happy enough to let it run at 13/2


  • #26
    ste2010
    Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ste2010


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    Thought the front two were worth favourites, both lightly raced unexposed geldings. That said Astracad fared better than the bare result last time, I just thought 13/2 was a bit skinny given he does have over 20 lengths to make up with them. Tricky racing punting wise tomorrow

    There's a 17lb swing in the weights with bold Henry including claims. The owners will be royally p*ssed tomorrow of he doesn't win. Lads already 4's
    I'd imagine there's sufficient progression in caid du berlais tomorrow to win the big one. STD didn't think he was even ready to run LTO


  • #27
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    ste2010 wrote: »
    There's a 17lb swing in the weights with bold Henry including claims. The owners will be royally p*ssed tomorrow of he doesn't win. Lads already 4's
    I'd imagine there's sufficient progression in caid du berlais tomorrow to win the big one. STD didn't think he was even ready to run LTO

    Darna the one I'd be interested in after scooting in last time. Trappy enough looking race though


  • #28
    Gringo180
    Registered Users Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    aidankkk wrote: »
    This is my 9th of these 100 bet treads 8 have made profit. Its probably the best time of the year to start one for me.

    Ill start with the bet i put up yesterday

    BET 1


    Hennessy Gold Cup
    I’m going to get a bet in here early for my main fancy for this as the price is only going to get lower.

    I think this race will really suit Unioniste, he is a dour stayer and looks to love soft ground. He ended last season poorly but will surly be ready for this race. The stable are on fire at the moment. 20/1 looks a cracking EW bet

    2 Points EW Unioniste Various

    Unioniste is being kept for the National. Wont be backing him until that day.


  • #29
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    3:45 Cheltenham

    I’m not one to look a total gift horse in the mouth but Rock on Ruby is fairly long odds on in this race on these terms on decent ground. He didn’t run up to expectations last time out but has been poor enough before first time out before and doesn’t need to be at his best here. Form and orderly queue.

    3 Points win 13/8


    In addition I think The New One should also be shorter so the double at best prices of 8/15 new one and 13/8 rock on ruby with VCbet and a few others looks huge at over 3/1

    2 Point’s double 13/8 & 8/15 VCbet


  • #30
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    2:00 Cheltenham

    I’ve looked at this race countless times over the last day or so and I just can’t find anything of value here other than the Favourite Caid Du Berlais. His finish last time in a vastly superior race in the Paddy Power was eye popping on further viewing, particularly his last 2 jumps. He should be even better on the sounder surface . I’m coming to the opinion that 5lbs is nowhere near enough to stop him here given the depth and strength of the paddy power. 4/1 looks value as much as I hate backing favourites in these races.

    2 Points win 4/1 Generally


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  • #31
    longshotvalue
    Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    aidankkk wrote: »
    3:45 Cheltenham

    I’m not one to look a total gift horse in the mouth but Rock on Ruby is fairly long odds on in this race on these terms on decent ground. He didn’t run up to expectations last time out but has been poor enough before first time out before and doesn’t need to be at his best here. Form an orderly queue.

    3 Points win 13/8


    In addition I think The New One should also be shorter so the double at best prices of 8/15 new one and 13/8 rock on ruby with VCbet and a few others looks huge at over 3/1

    2 Point’s double 13/8 & 8/15 VCbet

    Fecking beauties, those were silly prices.. Won like the odds on shots they should have been:D


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