Comments on the boards.ie daily forecast ( > 1,000,000 views )

Joe Public wrote: »

We're getting a few "kiws" lately but it looks like the threat of more "abiq" has gone away for now :-)

Ya wa?????

Pattern has to re-set, but models are really struggling to get much beyond four or five days before they lose the plot so I certainly haven't dropped the idea of a colder period in February, and there are plenty of signs of possible reversals of the impending mild spell after a few days, but I should clarify that the best signal in the research is more like mid-February than early February so big changes may require a few days beyond the current reliable time frame, which may be why only vague hints of colder weather can be seen on the model runs today. There is very strong high pressure between the Bering Strait and the north pole which sounds a long way from Europe except that if it moved NNW it could start a retrograde chain of events and at that latitude the longitude parallels are of course very close together so a feature like that could reposition a long way to the west in a matter of 4-5 days. The mild signal we have now is actually not a problem, some upgrades that I made in December adjusted the temperature trend to this sort of 8-10 C trend until 1-2 Feb then the trend is sharply down towards a much lower end point in mid February. So in other words I believe everything is on track and the pattern was always supposed to go highly variable before this major cold arrived, the past week has probably been a bit colder than my research was suggesting, but I've noticed that the upper level parameters never really got much into the negative range, it was feedback from snow cover that developed over Britain more than cold advection from any distant source. I expect that if we get into this more organized cold spell, it will bring more intense cold at upper levels.

Meanwhile the weather in eastern North America has just done something that was signalled in the research by turning much colder since mid-January, a change from almost one extreme to the other. This will in the short term perhaps be a negative factor for cold in western Europe because it will tend to fire up the polar vortex esat of Greenland briefly, but it looks to me as though this extreme cold will fade out fairly quickly around the end of the month and that should allow a re-set with much higher pressure in the Greenland region.

Watching this high near the pole very carefully, and I don't feel that the models necessarily have it nailed down, retrogression should begin soon (this recent cold spell had little input from retrograde motion, it basically exploited a weak steering flow and probably over-performed relative to the upper level circulation).

The other factor to watch is that the models are dealing with explosive systems coming off the super-cold North American continent from tomorrow through about Saturday, and the development (track, intensity) of these in 4-6 days is really very approximate, which is a bit unsettling given the central pressures indicated. We don't want to see one of those 930 mb lows going off track and closer to Ireland, Sunday's current evolution is close enough. Hints of a very windy period as it begins to turn colder next week but that almost never seems to verify, cold seems to arrive on more moderate winds nine times out of ten.

Yep, I had no clue what that was about ("kiw") until I started into editing my previous forecast and found the mystery word. Problem is as explained in the forecast thread, I type like a speed demon and generally quite akkurately (joke) but I tend to watch the screen as my fingers know where the keys are -- so when that sort of thing happens I usually see it as I go. Might have been distracted by something or maybe the cursor was sitting over that word, but I never saw "kiw" on the screen. I think it's a New Zealand weather system of some kind perhaps.

Will be even more dangerous soon as we are taking our computer in for a memory upgrade, keeps freezing on facebook and weather map animations. I think there are some parts of the package missing but I would make a great legal secretary at the rate I type and my very attractive legs in a black dress, plus my alluring personality (some have compared me to Sir Alex Ferguson after a loss).

Thanks, see my longer version on the fcst thread.

In this time of rather quiet weather, perhaps regular readers (or avowed critics) can assist me in an endeavour to improve quality of service on the daily forecast thread. Be as frank as the law allows and even more so as I am not that type of person (or any type of person).

Free form, but sample questions to give some focus:

A. Are the forecasts meeting your needs? Are they specific enough, detailed enough, too much or too little detail, time scale too short or long, etc?

B. Do you derive any benefit from the added forecasts for Britain and North America?

C. Should I continue to add astronomy information, and do you prefer to look for it at the beginning, middle or end of this package?

D. Is there anything about the format you would like to see changed, for your convenience (I am notably behind the times when it comes to mobile devices etc, just an old man at a keyboard, sort of like Beethoven in his later years).

E. Beyond the forecast thread, is my participation in other threads too much, too little, useful or otherwise? Should I just stick to the contests and the forecast and let other things come and go, so as to encourage others?

F. Any forecast biases that you've noticed that could be routinely adjusted?

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plus any other concerns or interests related to this subject ... have at it.

If anyone feels like chatting by PM rather than on the forum, feel free. There is no time frame to this. I feel no particular urge to do more or less than before.

I should mention that there is always the slight chance that either health or legal troubles could cause a sudden disappearance of MTC from the cyber world and not to worry if that happens, somebody would be along to fill you in on developments. Nothing specific in mind, just "situations" that are more or less unavoidable.

I think that in general I get the forecasts posted before most people start to look, but there again, are they early enough for your benefit? Do you find the general lack of updates to be a problem? I don't always check every six hours to see what's happening, just in more dynamic situations.

Thanks, quite right saying that the snow windows were closed shut, a rather low-science explanation is that the Atlantic signal mid December to first week of January, while expected, was so intense that the colder signal had all it could handle just to do anything at all, and in fact it did appear in the trend with the 11th and 12th being relatively cold to the majority of the days this winter. Small amounts of snow appear possible at medium elevations and large amounts could fall higher than most people live, in the next week or so.

I have just been looking at research output for spring-summer and that gives me the impression of a continued zonal flow through March, some kind of northerly regime in April with an interval of relatively cold weather more likely then, so maybe any snow could come around or after Easter. May and June look warmer than average in this output. The rest of the summer looked more average.

I hope to see a few more comments and get a better sampling of ideas about what people think of the forecasts and the emphasis, etc. This has always been a pleasant enough task that I have given myself and the rewards have been astronomical in terms of both research development and personal contacts that I value very much indeed. There is no down side which is why I don't mind giving an hour or so each day to this project. It tends to be the last hour of consciousness in the land of the empty cranium.

It is also my opinion that the forum has grown stronger through the independent efforts of various heavy hitters in the past two or three years and you will get just as good a commentary on major weather events if I'm in the mix or not, which is good.

I wish it were possible to visit more often or extensively (in person that is) but we have had a bad combination of health issues and family concerns that has made longer absences impossible. Maybe this summer things will become more conducive and I hope to get at least one round of golf in, should that be the case. The pictures that I see regularly have us really hoping to get to all parts of Ireland.

I'm happy with the weather forecast format as it is - it's detailed enough to gain an understanding of why and where and how, yet concise enough to read quickly on a mobile device. I'm particularly appreciative of the notes on possible outcomes to the forecasts and the likelihoods of those coming to fruition. This is preferred than a single outlook that the national services give as the likely forecast.

The LRF side of things I find truly interesting, and I always look forwards to seeing how close the LRF is to reality, and if it isn't at least you are able to give an adequate explanation as to why it didn't (this is a positive comparison to those LRF people that cannot take any form of criticism of their methodology). I've found your own LRF to be fairly accurate if not precise - and I'll take accuracy over precision every time here.

The astro one-liners, they're a great addition I think for most people that may not be aware of what's going on overhead. Nice as they are now, I don't see a need to go into too much more detail there.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I wish it were possible to visit more often or extensively (in person that is) but we have had a bad combination of health issues and family concerns that has made longer absences impossible. Maybe this summer things will become more conducive and I hope to get at least one round of golf in, should that be the case. The pictures that I see regularly have us really hoping to get to all parts of Ireland.

M.T. if you do make it over here in the summer I'm very sure there'll be a long line of people wanting to bring you for a pint of Guinness to say thanks (& probably pick your brain a bit ) I'm sure I speak for a lot of people here when I say thank you so much for putting the effort that you do into our forecasts & I wouldn't change them at all, we've all learned so much from you & I do hope the health issues & family concerns ease so you can get the break you deserve (Also the first drink is on me if you do arrive in the summer!) All the best & thanks again

ah Dev, I was just coming here to post that...

Golf can supposedly be a good cure for a hangover