March 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

Well, Dublin (892% of normal so far) is not one of the eleven locations we use to calculate PRC, so it won't affect the contest. Casement (139%) is. Another very wet location so far is Roches Point (449%), also not part of the calculation. Johnstown Castle is among the locations used, they are currently at 391%. Cork is at 206% (they are also in the calculation).

So after the first week and its very cold and wet start ...

IMT stands at 2.0 which is 4.4 below normal for the period.

MAX appears to be 10.2 (Newport 7th) and MIN -7.0 (Cork 1st).

PRC is 129% of normal, some locations were below (Valentia only 55%) which balanced the two wet locations mentioned above.

SUN got all tired out in February and took a break, 68% of normal (409/600). Valentia managed 105% though.

Sure these early MAXes will be overtaken, but 10.3 now after three locations hit that on Thursday 8th.

You may recall that in February I went on a limb with 200% sunshine and the results were inconclusive (reality was near 150% and this fell into a big gap between my forecast and closest at 125%). Well this month I'm trying the same gambit with precip at 215%, but BLIZZARD7 has upped the ante of the safety zone by going with 150%. Still, that leaves a big gap for PRC and wouldn't you know it, PRC is at 144% now. However, a rather dry week looms, so all will depend on how much precip falls in the last ten days of the month. I don't like my chances now.

So here's the second week update ...

IMT now stands at a mere 4.1 C, the second week was a bit milder than the first but no great heat wave, with the average 6.2 C which is still 0.5 below normal for the period.

MAX 13.9 and MIN -7.0 so far

PRC has reached 144% with this past week around 159% of normal, mostly due to heavy rainfalls yesterday in the south, some other locations had a relatively dry week (Ballyhaise for example 63%, Claremorris 64% and Malin Head 40%).

SUN is now at 78% after a somewhat brighter second week at 87% (524/600).

Expect the IMT to drop to around 3.0 by Wednesday 21st and the next update. MIN could drop as well.

With all the weather events of the past few days I forgot all about the bonus question, confirming what DOCARCH kindly posted above, max at Claremorris on 17th was 6.6 C.

Dacogawa was considerably closer at 6.4 than anyone else. The second closest forecast was 8.2 from Mickger844posts which just edged out the 4.9 from BLIZZARD7. These three will share the 10 points available and Dacogawa will get a superbonus point for being that close.

Nine points go to Rameire at 8.8, Pauldry at 9.0. and MrSkinner at 9.6 C.

From there on, it will be scoring pairs for 8 points down to 4 points, where ties get involved, and the lower scores will be groups of similar values, no zero scores. So that looks like this:

8 points -- DOCARCH 9.9 and Bsal 10.0

7 points -- MTC and Kindred Spirit both on 10.2

6 points -- Tae laidir 10.5 and Adam240610 at 11.0 (also NormaL 11.0)

5 points -- JCXBXC at 11.2 and sryanbruen at 11.6 (also Con Sensus 11.1)

4 points -- Rikand, Dasa29 and sdanseo all at 12.0

3 points -- Lumi at 12.2 and Joe Public at 12.3

2 points -- JPmarn at 13.4 and waterways at 13.5

1 point -- sunflower3 and John mac at 14.0, 200 motels at 14.8

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The lowest temperature during the cold spell was --6.9 at Mountdillon, which was not quite as cold as the --7.0 at Cork on the 1st.

It seems safe to say that --7.0 will be the MIN although there are some cold looking days at the end of the month on the models today.

If so, then closest forecasts for the MIN will be DOCARCH at --6.8 and Pauldry at --7.3 ... they are likely to get 19 and 18 points as the scoring looks like it will go from minimum progression.

April contest thread is open.

Report on fourth week of Marchuary ...

IMT is a chilly 4.6, this past week managed 6.2 which was 1.3 below average.

PRC edged up to 114 per cent with this fourth week at 120% of normal.

SUN is now at a high point for the month of 93% as the past week managed 110% (661/600).

Would expect these to be the final values, give or take ...

4.5 _ 13.9 _ --7.0 _ 120 _ 095

will confirm what I can on first and wait a few days for the MS to appear, 3rd or 4th depending on the status of Monday as a regular working day.

The MS had not appeared when this was posted and I have edited the table to show that the estimated values are now confirmed. Everything in the "estimated values" line was correct so no changes required, except for sunshine which worked out to be exactly 100% but as most forecasts were multiples of five, that didn't change any scores with one minor exception.

The annual update will be posted soon, I hope.


Confirmed scoring for March, 2018


FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ MAX 17th Cla ___ TOTALS

Confirmed values ______4.6_13.9_-7.0 _113_ 100____ 6.6

pauldry ______________ 24 _ 18*_ 19*_ 09 _ 10 ____ 09 _____ 89
Dasa29 ______________ 21 _ 19*_ 17*_ 14 _ 08 ____ 04 _____ 83
DOCARCH ____________ 12 _ 17*_ 20*_ 11 _ 07 ____ 08 _____ 75
MrSkinner ____________ 25 _ 07*_ 17*_ 04 _ 10 ____ 09 _____ 72
Bsal _________________23 _ 16*_ 07*_ 09 _ 08 ____ 08 _____ 71
Dacogawa _____ (-2) ___24 _ 04*_ 10*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 11_72-2=70
mickger844posts _______24 _ 13*_ 07*_ 06 _ 09 ____ 10 _____ 69

Con Sensus ___________21 _ 10*_ 10*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 05 _____ 69

Rameire _____________ 24 _ 08*_ 11*_ 08 _ 07 ____ 09 _____ 67
sryanbruen ___________22 _ 20*_ 03*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 05 _____ 65
sunflower3 ___________ 22 _ 03*_ 15*_ 13 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 63
Tae laidir ____________ 14 _ 04*_ 18*_ 12 _ 09 ____ 06 _____ 63
Rikand ______________ 21 _ 15*_ 09*_ 07 _ 06 ____ 04 _____ 62
Lumi ________________ 24 _ 07*_ 07*_ 14 _ 07 ____ 03 _____ 62
John Mac _____________13 _ 11*_ 12*_ 12 _ 09 ____ 01 _____ 58
sdanseo ______________23 _ 06*_ 01*_ 14 _ 09 ____ 04 _____ 57
adam240610 __________21 _ 09*_ 05*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 06 _____ 56
Kindred Spirit _________ 11 _ 10*_ 11*_ 09 _ 07 ____ 07 _____ 55
JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____19 _ 14*_ 04*_ 07 _ 08 ____ 05_57-3=54
MT Cranium ___________24 _ 13*_ 04*_ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _____ 52
waterways ____________10 _ 02*_ 16*_ 13 _ 08 ____ 02 _____ 51
Jpmarn ______________ 13 _ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 07 ____ 02 _____ 49
Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 14 _ 00*_ 09*_ 14 _ 10 ____ 03_50-2=48

NormaL ______________03 _ 00*_ 18*_ 11 _ 10 ____ 06 _____ 48


200motels ____________12 _ 01*_ 13*_ 13 _ 07 ____ 01 _____ 47
BLIZZARD7 ___________17 _ 05*_ 02*_ 03 _ 09 ____ 10 _____ 46

______________________________________________________________

* scores from minimum progression (MAX, MIN)

On these confirmed numbers, it is now official, congrats to Pauldry, Dasa29 and DOCARCH.

______________________________________________________________

(Table of forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ MAX 17th Claremorris


NormaL ______________ 6.8 _ 18.0 _ --6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0


waterways ____________6.1 _ 17.5 _ --8.1 _ 119 _ 092 ___ 13.5

Kindred Spirit _________ 6.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.0 _ 092 _ 115 ___ 10.2

200motels ____________5.9 _ 17.8 _ --8.8 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 14.8

DOCARCH ____________ 5.9 _ 14.8 _ --6.8 _ 125 _ 085 ____ 9.9

Jpmarn ______________ 5.8 _ 17.5 _ --8.5 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 13.4

John Mac _____________ 5.8 _ 15.6 _ --8.9 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 14.0

Joe Public ___ (-2) _____ 5.7 _ 18.9 _ --9.9 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 12.3

Tae laidir _____________ 5.7 _ 16.7 _ --7.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 10.5

JCXBXC _____ (-3) _____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _--10.8 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.2

adam240610 __________ 5.0 _ 15.8 _--10.2 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11.0

Rikand _______________ 5.0 _ 15.0 _ --9.9 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12.0

Dasa29 _______________5.0 _ 13.5 _ --8.0 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.0


Con Sensus ___________ 5.0 _ 15.7 _ --9.1 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 11.1


sunflower3 ____________ 4.9 _ 17.1 _ --8.4 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 14.0

sryanbruen ____________4.9 _ 14.1 _--12.0 _ 090 _ 090 ___ 11.6

sdanseo ______________ 4.8 _ 16.1 _--13.5 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0

Bsal __________________4.8 _ 14.9 _--10.0 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 10.0

Dacogawa _____ (-2) ____4.7 _ 16.8 _ --9.2 _ 111 _ 094 ____ 6.4

Lumi _________________ 4.7 _ 16.0 _--10.0 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 12.2

MrSkinner _____________ 4.6 _ 16.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 100 ____ 9.6

Rameire _______________4.5 _ 15.9 _ --9.0 _ 091 _ 115 ____ 8.8

mickger844posts ________4.5 _ 15.5 _--10.0 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 8.2

MT Cranium ____________4.5 _ 15.5 _--11.0 _ 215 _ 070 ___ 10.2

pauldry _______________ 4.5 _ 14.7 _ --7.3 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 9.0

BLIZZARD7 ____________3.8 _ 16.4 _--13.3 _ 150 _ 095 ____ 4.9

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I had a chance to review the information in the MS and everything was confirmed (sunshine worked out closer to 100% but scores generally remained the same there, and all other estimates proved to be okay, so the scoring table has been edited to show "confirmed scoring" etc.

The annual table will follow along soon, as I get into my day here at Ireland's westernmost point. (or so it seems)