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Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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12357…325

Comments

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    #122
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Off topic but Cork City has just about trebled in size with the redrawing in progress.

    TM is coaxing Lb with money and a possible full customs union. I would think and probably correctly that the latter is simply to get the ERG onside. 'If you don't support my deal this is what will happen' TM.
    But we know keeping the Tory Party together is her top priority so siding with Lb would only occur, if she sees a disastrous No Deal as the only other option.


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    #123
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »
    Very much doubt Cork (city) is 570,000+.
    You realise that the population of the whole of Malta is under half a million?

    There are villages in Cork with twice the population of Valetta.


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    #124
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    Can I suggest that you read the articles and see what the authors actually say instead of me putting my gloss on it.
    I'm interested in your point, which seems like arrant nonsense, and I'm asking you to explain in just in case I'm wrong.


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    #125
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Anthracite wrote: »
    You realise that the population of the whole of Malta is under half a million?

    There are villages in Cork with twice the population of Valetta.

    Depends on how define the exact city, generally the main central business districts would overshadow Cork in look and feel.

    Sure the city of London is only a few thousand people, but no one refers to that specific district area when referring to 'London'.

    An island of 570,000 and it's only 316 km², hence it's has a 'more urban feel, and population dense' than that of Cork city, the county of which is 7,500 km² and only than 542k spread across a vast area.


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    #126
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    To get back to Brexit, it's potentially good for Ireland and Malta. We'd be better to cooperate with Malta and Cyprus on a few issues around common interests as countries that speak English or have large English speaking populations, we also share some legacy UK technical standards and so on - drive on left, plugs/sockets, some aspects of other standards and so on.

    There's an argument for getting together on many of those issues.

    We also are islands with significant needs around air and ferry transport.


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    #127
    ThePanjandrum
    Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    nc6000 wrote: »
    Sky News are reporting Nissan have cancelled plans to build the X-Trail model in Sunderland.

    So, as I understand it:
    1. The SUV is currently built in Japan,
    2. No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
    3. We do not know the reason this would have happened
    4. Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
    5. It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession


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    #128
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »
    Depends on how define the exact city, generally the main central business districts would overshadow Cork in look and feel.

    Sure the city of London is only a few thousand people, but no one refers to that specific district area when referring to 'London'.

    An island of 570,000 and it's only 316 km², hence it's has a 'more urban feel, and population dense' than that of Cork city, the county of which is 7,500 km² and only than 542k spread across a vast area.
    I'm not sure if you've been to Malta, but the 'Valetta' urban area does not feel like a conurbation of half a million. And the figure I see for the population of the whole of Malta is 480k.

    On the point of business moving somewhere, Cork has large undeveloped docklands which would seem to represent an easy development opportunity for business and residential property.


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    #129
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So, as I understand it:
    1. The SUV is currently built in Japan,
    2. No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
    3. We do not know the reason this would have happened
    4. Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
    5. It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

    It may also be just looking ahead to the EU Japan trade deal and the awkwardness of the UK at the moment and just deciding to continue with production in Japan.

    Or, it could be planning to use a Renault facility on the continent too


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    #130
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So, as I understand it:
    1. The SUV is currently built in Japan,
    2. No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
    3. We do not know the reason this would have happened
    4. Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
    5. It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession
    Or maybe it's the obvious: May promised the Japanese they would have free access to the EU market, it was a lie, and the Japanese are acting on that.


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    #131
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,559 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Folkstonian wrote: »
    The U.K. has no responsibility towards Ireland. It has no responsibility to make life here easier or more prosperous. I’m at a loss as to why this irritates you so much. It has a responsibility, however, to maintain the trust and political engagement of the people it serves in Britain.

    The UK does have a responsibility to its citizens in NI who identify as Irish though. Also, as the EU knows, it is easier for countries to work together and avoid armed conflict if there is cooperation where both sides are better off financially. So while the UK has no responsibility to Ireland they do have a responsibility to work with Ireland to ensure conditions in NI doesn't mean either side feels let down by authorities so they take matter in their own hands.


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So, as I understand it:
    1. The SUV is currently built in Japan,
    2. No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
    3. We do not know the reason this would have happened
    4. Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
    5. It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Faisal Islam has tweeted that as a result of the EU-Japan FTA, moving production to Sunderland, rather than leaving it in Japan, would add a 10% tariff:

    Faisal Islam is one of the more trusted journalists out there so if he is hearing about this as a possibility it means there are rumblings that it may happen. Now people may try to deflect that the reasons for this is not Brexit related but much like other companies who has moved operations to other countries who is either in the EU or has trade deals with the EU that ensure zero tariffs you can bet it played a major role.


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    #132
    AllForIt
    Registered Users Posts: 8,269 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    You do get the feeling that foreign provided manufacturing is going to go way south in the UK at one point or another. Funny cause that will hit the working classes the most, the very ppl who wanted to take back their country.


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    #133
    jochenstacker
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 390 ✭✭jochenstacker


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So, as I understand it:
    1. The SUV is currently built in Japan,
    2. No announcement has been made about cancelling or postponing plans to produce it at Sunderland,
    3. We do not know the reason this would have happened
    4. Possibilities include the fall in car sales in general, the fall in Diesel sales in particular and the problems arising from replacing Ghosn
    5. It may also be worried about Brexit or the impending Eurozone recession

    Well, keep a copy of that list, you can post a variation of it anytime another company leaves/cancles plans to build something.
    And keep assuring people that lightning does indeed strike twice, or several thousand times.


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    #134
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    AllForIt wrote: »
    You do get the feeling that foreign provided manufacturing is going to go way south in the UK at one point or another. Funny cause that will hit the working classes the most, the very ppl who wanted to take back their country.
    Yes, this seems super obvious, but Panajandrum seems to think the working classes have a cunning plan in mind.

    He's not sharing what it is though.


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    #135
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    It appears Labour Leavers are defecting to the Tories following Tuesday's votes:

    http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1091762049099677697


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    #136
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    It appears Labour Leavers are defecting to the Tories following Tuesday's votes:

    http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1091762049099677697

    Good man Jeremy.


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    #137
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Good man Jeremy.

    It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.


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    #138
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.


    I wonder though whether May might be tempted to call an election based on the Withdrawal Agreement, she could then ensure that all candidates supported it and get enough seats to do without the DUP.


  • Options
    #139
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    I wonder though whether May might be tempted to call an election based on the Withdrawal Agreement, she could then ensure that all candidates supported it and get enough seats to do without the DUP.
    Fixed term parliament.


  • Options
    #140
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Anthracite wrote: »
    Fixed term parliament.

    Won't be an issue. Pushing for a general election is the closest Labour have come to opposing Brexit.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Options
    #141
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    It's like a perfect storm to ensure the most disasterous outcome.

    It's almost as if he wants a Brexit...


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    #142
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,559 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Anthracite wrote: »
    Fixed term parliament.


    Didn't stop her from calling the election in 2017. The PM will need 2/3 of the votes in the HoC to call for a new election before the term is up or a no confidence vote. Labour would support a new election so she would only need about 150 Tories as well. Maybe more, quick mathematics is not my area.


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    #143
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,480 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    TM cannot call an election. On what manifesto for the EU would the Tories stand?


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    #144
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,142 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    TM cannot call an election. On what manifesto for the EU would the Tories stand?

    The answer to the first part of your post is that she can. Labour have been pushing for one for some time now.

    It's the question you ask which is intriguing. Her options are the following as I see them:
    1. The Withdrawal Agreement
    2. Repeal notice to trigger Article 50 and/or call a people's vote
    3. Put her foot down and call for a no deal Brexit (Will involve much jingoistic language)

    I think option 1 is still the most likely. MP's don't want a crash out Brexit and the WA leaves the option of a referendum on the table. Option 3 will destroy the Tories.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Options
    #145
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,480 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Well yes, she could call an election, that is true is terms of rules, but in reality she can't.

    What does she say? My deal, and have the likes of ERG etc tear her apart? An amended deal, people will want to know what that means. No deal, really, her party would never unite on that


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    #146
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    To give the Electoral Calculus projection:

    Con 338 (+20)

    Lab 232 (-30)

    Lib Dems 17 (+5)

    SNP 41 (+6)

    Green 1

    NI 18


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    #147
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    It'll be option 3. I'm seeing the rhetoric bring dialed up again.

    The only thing I could see as a positive in a GE is the DUP might face pressure in NI.

    You might also see more seats to to the SDLP if they were willing to fight this in Westminster rather than SF just not recognising Westminster.


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    #148
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Anthracite wrote: »
    I'm not sure if you've been to Malta
    Actually, yes.
    Anthracite wrote: »
    but the 'Valetta' urban area does not feel like a conurbation of half a million. And the figure I see for the population of the whole of Malta is 480k.

    Generally that includes Silema, St.J and many other nearby urban areas which are all a stones throw away. Again check your figures as 480 is wrong, as it calling Cork (city area) anywhere near to 1/2m.
    Anthracite wrote: »
    On the point of business moving somewhere, Cork has large undeveloped docklands which would seem to represent an easy development opportunity for business and residential property.

    Val already has (developed) docklands, hence all the crusie ships. There are similaraities as others have mentioned driving on left, 3pin plugs, and even red postboxes/phoneboxes. Not to mention 'tax friendly' factors in both. The 4th Ind Rev generally won't lend itself towards heavy industry/manufacturing.

    It's still a very good marketing factor regardless to have two of top three Eng speaking cities in the EU after brexit in Ire.

    If there is deal (unlikely) that puts the North into a special 'dual-market' type access area, it would be bonus time for Belfast (295 urban or 585k metro) with low wages, low rent, large educated and under-utilised workforce would all equate to great growth for the entire island.


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    #149
    McGiver
    Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭McGiver


    I think the EU is not going to negotiate with HMG anymore. All patience and goodwill is gone. Everyone, even the most optimistic person EU diplomat or politician, now understands HMG is not negotiating in good faith. Anything offered to UK is reneged on, no amount of appeasement or compromising will make HMG a trustworthy negotiating party, it seems rather the opposite.

    Verhofstad speaking in the EP about the last week's HoC votes. Interestingly, he (and the rest of the EP) is reading the situation more clearly than BBC and vast majority of domestic UK commentators.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc4WiBRnAyQ


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    #150
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    The only thing I could see as a positive in a GE is the DUP might face pressure in NI.

    Indeed further delays will aid Labours ultimate ambitions, if they can call a GE, for sure the DUP and the entire establishment will poo their pants, so to speak.

    Maybe Jez will likely have one of those involountary 'heart attack' incidents out in the countryside if it looks like he can actually win.


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    #151
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,695 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    To give the Electoral Calculus projection:

    Con 338 (+20)
    A - How many of the Scottish seats does that that include ?

    B - An election could allow the DUP to abandon ship without loosing face.

    C - Last time out a majority was predicted too.


This discussion has been closed.
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