June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

Jpmarn · 24-06-2019 8:56am

Our bonus question the Battle of the Airports it is 13.9 v 17.4 Giving Cork stuck on 9 while Dublin moves to 14. The Battle is getting hotter this week lads.

M.T. Cranium · 25-06-2019 8:35am

Bonus now 10-14 as Cork 19.7 vs Dub 18.3 on a warmer Monday 24th.

New MAX 22.4 at Athenry.

Have posted a contest thread for this coming warm spell, enter today (up to 0300h Wed).

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2019 8:31am

Bonus score now 11-14, after Cork dusted Dublin 20.0 to 18.0 on 25th.

MAX tied at Shannon (another 22.4) but the big guns will be out on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 27-06-2019 5:14am

Cork is going all out to even the match, 12-14 now (preliminary numbers posted say 19.7 vs 17.6).

Probable new MAX at Mace Head of all places (23), Shannon reached 22.7 for sure. These will get blown away today and Friday though.

Tae laidir · 27-06-2019 4:32pm

Cork showing 22 and Dublin 18.
Shannon at 28!!!!

waterways · 28-06-2019 9:54am

Tae laidir wrote: »

Cork showing 22 and Dublin 18.
Shannon at 28!!!!

Confirmed.
Shannon Airport reached 28.4 °C yesterday.

waterways · 28-06-2019 9:57am

23.5 v 18.5, 13-14

Jpmarn · 28-06-2019 10:00am

Our Bonus Question in the battle of the Airports Cork has scored again as Dublin is hampered by a cool onshore wind but it may be the last points that Cork will score by the months end.

23.3 v 18.5 Making it Cork 13 Dublin 14.

There are 3 more points still in the bag. Forecasts suggest that Dublin will lose the cool wind but Cork will be more influence over the 3 remaining days. My predicted final score should read 13- 17. Anybody that has guessed it which is not me should be excited.

adam240610 · 28-06-2019 10:26am

Jpmarn wrote: »

Our Bonus Question in the battle of the Airports Cork has scored again as Dublin is hampered by a cool onshore wind but it may be the last points that Cork will score by the months end.

23.3 v 18.5 Making it Cork 13 Dublin 14.

There are 3 more points still in the bag. Forecasts suggest that Dublin will lose the cool wind but Cork will be more influence over the 3 remaining days. My predicted final score should read 14- 17. Anybody that has guessed it which is not me should be excited.

Do you mean 13-17 or 14-16? Considering they should sum to 30

Jpmarn · 28-06-2019 10:28am

adam240610 wrote: »

Do you mean 13-17 or 14-16? Considering they should sum to 30

Main post corrected it should read 13-17

Joe Public · 28-06-2019 11:09am

waterways wrote: »

Confirmed.
Shannon Airport reached 28.4 °C yesterday.

I wonder why met eireann only mentioned Valentia for high temp on RTE TV last night???

mickger844posts · 28-06-2019 11:35am

Joe Public wrote: »

I wonder why met eireann only mentioned Valentia for high temp on RTE TV last night???

Gerry mentioned it on the forecast after the Nine news last night

https://www.rte.ie/player/series/nine-o-clock-weather/SI0000003606?epguid=IH000377295

Joe Public · 28-06-2019 11:43am

mickger844posts wrote: »

Gerry mentioned it on the forecast after the Nine news last night

https://www.rte.ie/player/series/nine-o-clock-weather/SI0000003606?epguid=IH000377295

Maybe it was at 6.55pm

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2019 4:36pm

I will open a July contest thread in about a half hour, just looking at data to frame the bonus question.

waterways · 29-06-2019 8:50am

17.6 v 22.7, 13-15

Don't know why Casement was so hot yesterday with 28.4 °C and tied with Shannon Airport the day before.

Joe Public · 29-06-2019 9:13am

waterways wrote: »

17.6 v 22.7, 13-15

Don't know why Casement was so hot yesterday with 28.4 °C and tied with Shannon Airport the day before.

Casement got to around 25°C yesterday, maybe the tarmac was hotter

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2019 5:19pm

Yesterday Dublin resumed its role as warm spot (22.7 vs 17.6 for Cork) and the count is now 13-15. Today appears to be headed for another Dublin win (13-16 then) but tomorrow more of a tossup with winds coming around to more of a westerly direction. Finish will be either 13-17 or 14-16.

The Casement report of 28.4 may be a typo, the synop (as reported on meteociel in their max temperature map) was 24.8. This affected the contest we had going for the warm spell, and GL posted over there that he thinks it should be 24.8 also.

Meanwhile, after four weeks ...

The IMT as reported is 12.66 (12.7) with the fourth week 16.1 (1.7 above normal), but with that Casement error as part of the data, the net impact on the weekly value would be ((3.6)/14)/5 deg which reduces to about 0.05 so let's say the IMT might actually be 12.6. By end of month it probably won't matter even that much. I expect it to finish around 12.9 as today will easily bring it to 12.8 and 30th might be just warm enough to add another 0.1 to that.

MAX is 28.4 whether Casement right or wrong, since Shannon hit that figure the previous day. MIN is 1.1 and seems likely to remain thus.

PRC is now 125% with the past week quite close to normal (96%) despite a very dry Malin Head (2%) and a wet Cork (225%) trading off. This should be about the same as the outcome with a few places getting a soaking today and many quite dry, same likely tomorrow. Could fall off slightly towards 120% perhaps.

SUN almost unchanged from last week, 109% now with this past week 107% (643/600). That should finish close to 110%.

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2019 6:14pm

Here are some provisional scores based on my current estimates. The MAX requires some boosting with about one third of the field outside the scoring zone, but it will be reduced boosting due to high raw scores near the top. In fact, one forecast was actually higher than the outcome and ranked tied fifth overall. Other variables have fallen neatly into scoring zones and so this is the current estimate. I wouldn't expect major changes to this when confirmed by 2nd or 3rd (depending more on my schedule than MS, we may be on the road for a few days now to 2nd).

Provisional scoring for June 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTAL

Estimates ___________12.9_28.4_ 1.1_120_110 ___ 13-17

waterways ___________ 17 _ 19*_ 19 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 85

john mac ____________ 19 _ 15*_ 19 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 80

Joe Public ____________15 _ 16*_ 15 _ 15 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 73

Dacogawa ____________16 _ 16*_ 16 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 09 _____ 71

Artane2002 __________ 20 _ 04*_ 19 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 70

sryanbruen ___________21 _ 02*_ 17 _ 13 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 68

Tae laidir ____________ 12 _ 18*_ 09 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 67

mickger844posts ______ 23 _ 00 _ 19 _ 12 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 66

____ Con Sensus ______19 _ 09*_ 09 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 66

Gonzo _______________25 _ 00 _ 14 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 10 _____ 65

MT Cranium __________ 20 _ 05*_ 13 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 64

rikand _______________14 _ 18*_ 09 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 63

JCXBXC _____(-2) _____24 _ 07*_ 07 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 09 _64-2=62

MrSkinner ___________ 11 _ 20*_ 08 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 60

Jpmarn ______________24 _ 01*_ 14 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 59

Pauldry ______________24 _ 03*_ 02 _ 13 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 58

Bsal ________________ 19 _ 09*_ 01 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 57

Sunflower3 ___________22 _ 02*_ 09 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 07 _____ 56

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 24 _ 03*_ 00 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 07 _59-3=56

____ NormaL _________ 18 _ 04*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 53

adam240610 _________ 06 _ 13*_ 09 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 49

DOCARCH ____________13 _ 04*_ 08 _ 06 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 48

200motels ___________ 17 _ 10*_ 04 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 47

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 12 _ 10*_ 09 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 07 _57-10=47

Rameire _____________ 16 _ 00 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 46

YanSno _____ (-2) ____ 08 _ 03*_ 06 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 07 _42-2=40

Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 07 _ 10*_ 01 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 05 _27-8=19

______________________________________________

(Actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (Cork vs Dublin)

adam240610 _________ 14.8 _ 27.4 _ 2.2 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 13-17

Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8-22

MrSkinner ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 103 ____ 9-21

Tae laidir ____________ 14.2 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 128 _ 095 ___ 14-16

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

DOCARCH ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 10-20

rikand _______________14.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12-18

Joe Public ____________ 13.9 _ 27.7 _ 1.6 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9-21

Dacogawa ____________13.8 _ 29.1 _ 0.7 _ 140 _ 092 ___ 12-18

Rameire _____________ 13.8 _ 23.8 _ 2.5 _ 099 _ 124 ___ 14-16

waterways ___________ 13.7 _ 28.2 _ 1.2 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 10-20

200motels ___________ 13.7 _ 26.8 _ 2.7 _ 073 _ 088 ___ 13-17*

____ NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12-18

john mac ____________ 13.5 _ 28.7 _ 1.2 _ 102 _109 ___ 11-19

____ Con Sensus ______13.5 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 12-18

Bsal ________________ 13.5 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13-17

MT Cranium __________ 13.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 26.1 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 17-13

sryanbruen ___________13.3 _ 24.7 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 13-17

Sunflower3 ___________13.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.2 _ 130 _ 082 ___ 10-20

JCXBXC _____(-2) _____13.0 _ 26.7 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14-16*

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 13.0 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 16-14

Pauldry ______________13.0 _ 25.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 12-18

Gonzo _______________12.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.5 _ 129 _ 082 ___ 13-17

Jpmarn ______________12.8 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 10-20

mickger844posts ______ 12.7 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 10-20

YanSno _____ (-2) _____11.2 _ 25.0 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 092 ___ 10-20
_______________________________________________________________

waterways · 30-06-2019 11:47am

18.5 v 20.9, 13-16

Jpmarn · 30-06-2019 3:50pm

In the final day of the airport battle Dublin is in the lead to pick up the final point with top hourly reports so far Cork 18° Dublin 19°C.

Bsal · 01-07-2019 12:05am

Cork 18.2c - Dublin 19.8c

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2019 2:34pm

The IMT has landed on 12.9 as expected and PRC needs some adjustments, currently calculates as 112%, checking that with MS on 2nd, same with SUN which may be closer to 105 than 110 as a result of rather cloudy weather 29th-30th. Leaving provisional scoring for now as I want to recheck once they have updated daily data to 30th (which may fix the error at Casement on 28th and perhaps change other aspects of monthly data). Bonus finished 13-17.

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2019 3:20pm

Some adjustments were needed to PRC and SUN scores.

Confirmed scoring for June 2019

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus __ TOTAL

Final values _________12.9_28.4_ 1.1_113_107 ___ 13-17

waterways ___________ 17 _ 19*_ 19 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 07 _____ 84

john mac ____________ 19 _ 15*_ 19 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 08 _____ 83

Artane2002 __________ 20 _ 04*_ 19 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 73

Joe Public ____________15 _ 16*_ 15 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 71

Dacogawa ____________16 _ 16*_ 16 _ 06 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 70

sryanbruen ___________21 _ 02*_ 17 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 70

mickger844posts ______ 23 _ 00 __19 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 69

Tae laidir ____________ 12 _ 18*_ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 _____ 68

____ Con Sensus ______19 _ 09*_ 09 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 67

MT Cranium __________ 20 _ 05*_ 13 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 66

JCXBXC _____(-2) _____24 _ 07*_ 07 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 _67-2=65

Gonzo _______________25 _ 00 __14 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 64

MrSkinner ___________ 11 _ 20*_ 08 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _____ 64

rikand _______________14 _ 18*_ 09 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 64

Bsal ________________ 19 _ 09*_ 01 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 _____ 59

Jpmarn ______________24 _ 01*_ 14 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 07 _____ 58

____ NormaL _________ 18 _ 04*_ 06 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 57

Pauldry ______________24 _ 03*_ 02 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 56

Sunflower3 ___________22 _ 02*_ 09 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 54

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 24 _ 03*_ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 _56-3=53

adam240610 _________ 06 _ 13*_ 09 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 10 _____ 52

DOCARCH ____________13 _ 04*_ 08 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _____ 49

200motels ___________ 17 _ 10*_ 04 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 49

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 12 _ 10*_ 09 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 07 _59-10=49

Rameire _____________ 16 _ 00 __06 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 09 _____ 48

YanSno _____ (-2) ____ 08 _ 03*_ 06 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 _40-2=38

Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 07 _ 10*_ 01 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 05 _28-8=20

__________________________________________________________________

Congrats then to waterways and john mac for leading the way in June. Annual scoring update soon to follow.

=======================================================

(Actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Bonus (Cork vs Dublin)

adam240610 _________ 14.8 _ 27.4 _ 2.2 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 13-17

Kindred Spirit __ (-8) __ 14.7 _ 27.0 _ 3.0 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8-22

MrSkinner ___________ 14.3 _ 28.3 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 103 ____ 9-21

Tae laidir ____________ 14.2 _ 28.1 _ 2.0 _ 128 _ 095 ___ 14-16

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-10) __ 14.2 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

DOCARCH ___________ 14.1 _ 26.1 _ 2.3 _ 093 _ 110 ___ 10-20

rikand _______________14.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 12-18

Joe Public ____________ 13.9 _ 27.7 _ 1.6 _ 120 _ 089 ____ 9-21

Dacogawa ____________13.8 _ 29.1 _ 0.7 _ 140 _ 092 ___ 12-18

Rameire _____________ 13.8 _ 23.8 _ 2.5 _ 099 _ 124 ___ 14-16

waterways ___________ 13.7 _ 28.2 _ 1.2 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 10-20

200motels ___________ 13.7 _ 26.8 _ 2.7 _ 073 _ 088 ___ 13-17*

____ NormaL _________ 13.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12-18

john mac ____________ 13.5 _ 28.7 _ 1.2 _ 102 _109 ___ 11-19

____ Con Sensus ______13.5 _ 26.6 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 12-18

Bsal ________________ 13.5 _ 26.6 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13-17

MT Cranium __________ 13.4 _ 26.2 _ 1.8 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 10-20

Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 26.1 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 087 ___ 17-13

sryanbruen ___________13.3 _ 24.7 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 085 ___ 13-17

Sunflower3 ___________13.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.2 _ 130 _ 082 ___ 10-20

JCXBXC _____(-2) _____13.0 _ 26.7 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 14-16*

Dasa29 _____ (-3) ____ 13.0 _ 25.5 _ 5.0 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 16-14

Pauldry ______________13.0 _ 25.1 _ 2.9 _ 125 _ 093 ___ 12-18

Gonzo _______________12.9 _ 23.4 _ 0.5 _ 129 _ 082 ___ 13-17

Jpmarn ______________12.8 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 140 _ 085 ___ 10-20

mickger844posts ______ 12.7 _ 23.9 _ 1.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 10-20

YanSno _____ (-2) _____11.2 _ 25.0 _ 2.5 _ 130 _ 092 ___ 10-20
_______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2019 4:42pm

Updated annual scoring for 2019 (January to June)

(rank) _ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ 2019 TOTAL (and best 4/6)

_ 01 __ Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 __ 58 __ 64 ___ 422 ___ (300) _ 1

_ 02 __ Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 __ 60 __ 58 ___ 381 ___ (271) _ 4

_ 03 __ waterways _____________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 __ 56 __ 84 ___ 367 ___ (292) _ 2

_ 04 __ Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 __ 59 __ 52 ___ 364 ___ (253) _11t

_ 05 __ DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 __ 67 __ 49 ___ 358 ___ (261) _ 8

_(06)__ Con Sensus_____________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 __ 57 __ 67 ___ 367 ___ (257) _(10)

_ 06 __ john mac _______________49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 __ 39 __ 83 ___ 362 ___ (274) _ 3

_ 07 __ MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 __ 55 __ 64 ___ 355 ___ (253) _11t

_ 08 __ Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 __ 61 __ 48 ___ 354 ___ (258) _ 9

_t09 __200motels ______________ 48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 __ 66 __ 49 ___ 353 ___ (256) _10

_t09 __JCX BXC ________________65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 __ 66 __ 65 ___ 353 ___ (262) _ 7

_ 11 __ Jpmarn ________________ 69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 __ 58 __ 58 ___ 350 ___ (249) _16

_ 12 __ sryanbruen ______________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 __ 86 __ 70 ___ 348 ___ (265) _ 6

_ 13 __ mickger844posts _________65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 __ 65 __ 69 ___ 347 ___ (267) _ 5

_ 14 __ Artane2002 _____________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 __ 66 __ 73 ___ 345 ___ (251) _13

_ 15 __ Rikand _________________62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 __ 48 __ 64 ___ 343 ___ (241) _20

_ 16 __ Bsal ___________________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 __ 56 __ 59 ___ 342 ___ (250) _t14

_ 17 __ dasa29 ________________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 __ 62 __ 53 ___ 339 ___ (248) _17

_ 18 __ pauldry ________________ 55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 __ 53 __ 56 ___ 337 ___ (233) _22

_ 19 __ Dacogawa ______________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 __ 41 __ 70 ___ 332 ___ (250) _t14

_(20)__ NormaL ________________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 __ 58 __ 57 ___ 330 ___ (233)_(t22)

_ 20 __ M.T. Cranium ____________45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 __ 57 __ 66 ___ 326 ___ (236) _21

_ 21 __ Joe Public _______________62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 __ 60 __ 71 ___ 313 ___ (245) _19

_ 22 __ Kindred Spirit ___________ 58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 __ 49 __ 20 ___ 310 ___ (246) _18

_ 23 __ YanSno _________________62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 __ 58 __ 38 ___ 202 ___ (202) _23

_ 24 __ BLIZZARD7 _____________ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 __ 32 __ 49 ___ 187 ___ (169) _24

_ 25 __ sdanseo ________________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 81

_ 26 __ Gonzo __________________--- __ ---__ --- __ --- __ --- __ 64 ___ 64

_ 27 __ bazlers _________________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 50

_ 28 __ Tazio __________________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 44

_ 29 __ derekon ________________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- ___ 39
_________________________________________________________________________

Note: Two lowest scores are shown in italics (some others may tie), these are dropped from totals to show best 4/6 at this point. Scoring table will be ordered by best 5/7 after July. At present it is ordered by total scores.

The annual scoring has tightened up somewhat since the top seven all used June as one of their two dropped months. Anyone who used a June score in the best 4/6 would have moved up since they added to previous totals (best 4/5). The biggest moves up the annual scoring table came from waterways and john mac who had high scores in June.

Congrats to tae laidir who continues to lead in both the all month scoring and the best 4/6.

June 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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