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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

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Comments

  • #32
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Met office for overnight tonight showing some heavy rain straddling the country

    9B26375799AF4DEDBBB28B5265FC3081-0000334566-0003580356-00748L-6DACA98964324119AA557BA9BF16331A.jpg

    Thats the cold front. Should bring some very heavy rain as it passes.


  • #33
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,872 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Maq what are the chances of storms in the West tomorrow


  • #34
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Maq what are the chances of storms in the West tomorrow

    Some heavy showers should pop up around there. Some of them likely to be thundery. It's pot luck after that.


  • #35
    chris2007
    Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭chris2007


    What are the chances of Dublin seen some thunderstorms tomorrow?


  • #36
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    chris2007 wrote: »
    What are the chances of Dublin seen some thunderstorms tomorrow?

    A few bangs are possible(more than likely actually)throughout leinster including Dublin over the next few days.
    Its not impossible.
    Pin pointing where except at short notice is difficult.
    You may see one or someone up the road may instead.
    Thats the way it works.
    Keep your ears peeled I suppose.


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  • #37
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest 12Z GFS has downgraded the potential for severe storms in the UK. No real change for here though.


  • #38
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Looks like it could be an interesting day on both sides of the Irish Sea now tomorrow, quite a big shift in the forecast since yesterday. A bit of a downgrade over here though actually better imby, hard to know if it'll mainly just be heavy rain but the local BBC forecast mentioned the possibility of 'spectacular lightning shows' tonight and tomorrow morning and the met office forecast says hail and frequent lightning

    Euro4 model is promising for Ireland as well, nothing organised like in England but a lot of very heavy showers showing behind the front so potential for some widespread storms

    As always, things could go belly up but I don't think I'll be getting much sleep tonight!


  • #39
    Bejubby
    Closed Accounts Posts: 270 ✭✭Bejubby


    Harps wrote: »
    Looks like it could be an interesting day on both sides of the Irish Sea now tomorrow, quite a big shift in the forecast since yesterday. A bit of a downgrade over here though actually better imby, hard to know if it'll mainly just be heavy rain but the local BBC forecast mentioned the possibility of 'spectacular lightning shows' tonight and tomorrow morning and the met office forecast says hail and frequent lightning

    Euro4 model is promising for Ireland as well, nothing organised like in England but a lot of very heavy showers showing behind the front so potential for some widespread storms

    As always, things could go belly up but I don't think I'll be getting much sleep tonight!


    Hi.
    Is that euro 4 forecast for tonight in ireland?
    Thanks


  • #40
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Strike off the Wexford Coast


  • #41
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Crazy mild outside tonight, 16.8C and rising at 23:00, warmest part of the day, incredible.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • #42
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Supercell wrote: »
    Crazy mild outside tonight, 16.8C and rising at 23:00, warmest part of the day, incredible.

    It's 20 in is some places in Wales at the moment. Getting licked by a tongue of warm air. :p

    6F6AZqz.png


  • #43
    vickers209
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭vickers209


    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2014060806_201406062211_1_stormforecast.xml

    A level 1 was issued for England mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and to the lesser degree for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

    ... England ...

    A short-wave trough is forecast to cross the region by 15 UTC Wednesday, so that any severe activity will likely happen by this time. GFS and ECMWF are in strong disagreement regarding the timing and degree of evolving instability - while ECMWF simulates the highest instability during the morning hours, GFS counts with the afternoon destabilisation. The main culprit behind this disagreement may be the amount of morning convective debris and subsequent stratiform precipitation. Nevertheless, as strong mid-level flow overspreads the region, DLS values above 20 m/s may overlap with at least marginal CAPE values. This would suggest some potential for well organised DMC, including supercells, which may pose the hazards of large hail or marginally severe wind gusts. Especially in the morning hours, stronger low-level flow will contribute to LLS above 10 m/s, so if some supercells manage to develop at that time (and provided they are not elevated), isolated tornado event is not ruled out. As storms cluster thanks to the forcing by the approaching short-wave, excessive precipitation threat will be enhanced.


  • #44
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Some activity in the Irish sea, just off Wexford coast.


  • #45
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    And another due east of Gorey just now


  • #46
    vickers209
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Think just seen flash and heard a distant rumble in wicklow town


  • #47
    vickers209
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Defo lightning just seen forks across the sky

    EDIT
    And again

    EDIT EDIT
    Heavy rain now more fork lightning thunder getting louder


  • #48
    vickers209
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Just stoped as quick ??


  • #49
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Heavy rain now in Loughlinstown, hoping for some fireworks.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • #50
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    rain is battering down in D 15


  • #51
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Lovely active cell heading up through Wales at the moment.


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  • #52
    blackbird99
    Registered Users Posts: 477 ✭✭blackbird99


    [IMG][/img]1r4yrk.png
    beat me to it


  • #53
    blackbird99
    Registered Users Posts: 477 ✭✭blackbird99


    really kicking off now just across the water
    [IMG][/img]2q37p5t.png


  • #54
    acassells80
    Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭acassells80


    Is this cell over Wales headed for the east coast?


  • #55
    Hal1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    All that rain is part of a low pressure system passing over us now. These systems move in an anti clockwise rotation. It can be seen more clearly on the rain radar on met.ie or sat24.


  • #56
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    If things do kick off here then it should start in the southwest in a couple of hours.


  • #57
    dexter647
    Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Hopefully the sun comes out to play and helps things along


  • #58
    Red Nissan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭Red Nissan


    Cape, some of the highest values I've seen locally [Cork] until about 18:00hrs today. But not much to take advantage of that.

    A beauty developing off the south west tip, looks quite violent and rapidly moving almost one big red blob.


  • #59
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Plenty of active cells now at sea to our south.

    http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

    Edit : Dying out a bit now.


  • #60
    mickmackey1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,288 ✭✭✭mickmackey1


    Big difference in a small country :)

    jun614_zpsa9f6bf48.jpg


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  • #61
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,136 ✭✭✭highdef


    Torrential shower falling here at the moment. Massive drops. Extremely localised though as the sun is fully out and shining. Blue skies almost overhead but can also see massive fast building CBs all around through the sheets of rain falling from the sky.


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