Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

maquiladora wrote: »

Models aren't great this morning and some doom and gloom in the stratwarm thread on NW!

The drama of model watching.

Best ECM this winter imo.

derekon wrote: »

I agree 100% Beasterly

The ECM for the end of next week is very good with cold coming in from the east................interesting model watching ahead. It will switch back and forth however at least the Atlantic onslaught appears to be finally slowing down....:)

D

If that ECM came off i think Wicklow, Wexford and South Dublin could get a few light snow showers. But it won't so lets hope it changes for the better

davidsr20 wrote: »

Our winter is looking worse every day for the last month we were expecting this cold winter to start from 15-18 on but now the experts are saying its looking less likely ;( I really don't get it or is people just guessing!

It's coming alright, the intensity of what is on its way is anybody's guess at this stage.

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Hello all,
I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

Welcome denis, Everybody's opinion is welcome no matter how bonkers it may seem to some. I've a small interest in the nature side of things so look forward to hearing your thoughts over the coming weeks.

Icanseethewind wrote: »

Hello all,
I would like to introduce myself. My name is Denis and I am from Co.Mayo. I am in my 60s and only recently learned how to use a computer (my wife has been using one for ten years but I only got interested last year there was a course in the local hall) I am a retired farmer and I know the signs of nature and over the years I have gotten to know all the signals that we can use to forecast the weather. I am not a mad buck as some people think but I like to use both science and nature to make predictions. I hope I can learn more on here and that ye may learn from me. I am very close to nature and know the signs. I hope I can contribute on here and I know ehat ye think, (my grandsons tell me all the time) that only science can tell the weather. Yes it can but so can nature....

Welcome to the forum. I always like hearing about weather lore. I hope you'll enjoy the craic and discussion we have on here.

snaps wrote: »

Well, ive just walked home from the pub, the mass/swarms of starlings making a noise in the trees is over whelming. Is this a sign of anything?

Just that they are getting ready to roost and to possibly defecate down on top of any unwary passers by.

Murmurations of starlings have been known to attack and kill humans but they say it is quick and painless, so I wouldn't be unduly worried.

It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.

oisingeogho wrote: »

It's been a long run of fairly mild weather, particularly for England and Wales with cold and snow this winter limited to Scotland in the main with just the occasional colder incursion further south. Is all that about to change though?

In the Winter forecast the outlook was for milder December with a change of pattern arriving during January bringing colder weather, and there are some indications that the changes are now beginning to occur.

Without getting too technical, it's all about the stratosphere and it's temperature - in summary a colder stratosphere means a stronger jetstream and more atlantic based weather for the UK, as we've seen in recent times. There are signs that the stratosphere is warming though, and that would increase the risk of some colder air making it's way toward the UK.

As ever with the weather though, this is far from a straight forward process so there are most definitely no guarantees of significant cold arriving any time soon, but it does seem likely that less mild weather will be arriving in 7-10 days time & beyond that we'll really need to keep a close eye on developments.

The forecasting models are giving some hints on the type of weather that could arrive in the latter part of their runs, but they're also chopping and changing with every update which gives some good clues as to just how uncertain the detail in the medium range outlook is.

We'll obviously be keeping you up to date throughout...

At shorter range, to start the upcoming week we'll be seeing a north, south split in place with some wet and windy weather affecting Scotland in particular during Monday. The wet weather fades the further south you head though with high pressure close by and it's likely that it's influence will spread north later in the week.

Temperature wise it'll be a fairly mild start to the week with no frosts likely until the second part of the week - watch too for some fog patches in places.

The 12z runs have flipped again and dropped the easterly, a major turn around in 12 hours the models are really all over the place:mad:

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The 12z runs have flipped again and dropped the easterly, a major turn around in 12 hours the models are really all over the place:mad:

It could change back again in the next 6 hours for all we know.

I think it was M.T Cranium said last week the models will be all over the place.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76308179&postcount=3146

He seems to be right on the money.

baraca wrote: »

The easterly was premature and it wouldn't have lated more than a few days with such a strong PV. I'm still very happy with yesterday and todays output, All the signs are their. We still have height rises to our north and the vortex is weakening. Gfs 12z fantasy island has huge potential today.

it may not be mid month but the cold is coming of that I'm positive.

It will come and you are right the signs are there, but the vortex really has to weaken over Greenland to allow any decent blocking, Patience required:)